Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

[China Iron Ore Brief Comment: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in West Liaoning May Have Some Room to Rise] Domestic iron ore prices in west Liaoning were relatively stable, with the ex-factory prices of locally produced 66-grade iron ore concentrates, wet basis and excluding tax, at 740-750 yuan/mt; some local mines and beneficiation plants were still suspended, and overall iron ore concentrates resources remained relatively tight, providing some support for local iron ore concentrates prices; Demand side, steel mills were mostly operating normally as planned, for local iron

Data released by the online query platform for customs statistics showed that China imported 2,310,344.42 mt of copper ore and concentrates in February 2026, down 11.93% MoM and up 5.96% YoY. Chile was the largest origin, with imports of copper ore and concentrates from Chile totaling 747,321.72 mt in the month, down 4.27% MoM and down 1.33% YoY. Peru was the second-largest origin, with imports of copper ore and concentrates from Peru totaling 489,372.44 mt in the month, down 28.31% MoM and down 20.67% YoY. Below is a breakdown of China’s imports of copper ore and concentrates in February 2026, compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs of China: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: The total import/export volume (grand total) also includes partial origin data not listed in the table above (Wenhua Composite)

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China’s total manganese ore imports were 3.4426 million mt in January 2026, up 5.14% MoM and up 102.98% YoY. January imports by origin were Australia (601,700 mt, up 3.93% MoM), South Africa (1.963 million mt, up 12.1% MoM), Gabon (331,900 mt, down 11.61% MoM), Ghana (265,700 mt, down 21.39% MoM), Brazil (121,400 mt, up 80.69% MoM), and Myanmar (43,500 mt, down 4.56% MoM).

Data released by the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China’s imports of copper ore and its concentrates in January 2026 were 2,623,162.74 mt, down 3.00% MoM and up 4.02% YoY. Chile was the largest origin, with China importing 780,640.92 mt of copper ore and its concentrates from Chile that month, down 21.10% MoM and down 7.54% YoY. Peru was the second-largest origin, with China importing 682,585.86 mt of copper ore and its concentrates from Peru that month, up 26.59% MoM and up 2.90% YoY. Below is a breakdown of China’s imports of copper ore and its concentrates in January 2026, compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs of China: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: The total import/export volume (total) also includes data for some origins not listed in the table above (Wenhua Composite)

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China’s total manganese ore imports in February 2026 were 2.3064 million mt, down 33.00% MoM and up 3.24% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-February were 5.749 million mt, up 46.29% YoY from the same period last year. February imports from Australia were 413,100 mt, down 31.35% MoM; South Africa 990,400 mt, down 49.55% MoM; Gabon 375,100 mt, up 13.01% MoM; Ghana 270,400 mt, up 1.78% MoM; Brazil 99,700 mt, down 17.87% MoM; and Myanmar 49,900 mt, up 14.8% MoM.