According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, global refined nickel production is expected to increase modestly in 2026 and 2027 as new processing capacity comes online in Indonesia. However, the report warned that tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain capacity utilization. This suggests future growth in Indonesia’s nickel supply may depend increasingly on ore availability rather than nominal processing capacity alone.

According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, nickel prices are projected to rise 12% year on year in 2026 and a further 3% in 2027, as global consumption growth is expected to outpace supply expansion. The report said that although new nickel processing capacity will continue to come online in Indonesia, tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain utilization rates and keep the market tight. It also noted that further disruptions to sulfur exports from Middle East producers could become an additional upside risk for nickel prices.

Vale reported first-quarter net revenue of $9.26 billion, up 14% year on year, though slightly below analysts’ forecast of $9.37 billion. The company said higher sales volumes across its key products, including iron ore, copper, and nickel, were among the main drivers of revenue growth. The figures suggest a clear recovery in Vale’s core business revenue as commodity prices improved.

Vale’s nickel sales rose 15.2% year on year in the first quarter, while output reached its highest first-quarter level since 2020. The company said both copper and nickel production posted multi-year highs for the period, indicating a solid start to 2026 for its base metals business. The result points to improving nickel supply performance at Vale and stronger support for overall quarterly sales growth.

[SMM Nickel Brief] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 26.9 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,120 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.14 $/nickel unit WoW to 143.2 $/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market first declined and then rebounded this week. Sentiment was weak at the beginning of the week, but as Indonesian policies tightened and nickel prices rose, bullish expectations strengthened and the price center gradually shifted upward.

According to Nickel Industries’ Q1 2026 conference call, the company completed a new $450 million unsecured refinancing on April 28 to replace its existing $398 million bank loans. The new package includes a $350 million term loan and a $100 million revolving facility, with final maturity extended to June 30, 2030. Management said the refinancing improves cash flow flexibility and raises the net debt-to-EBITDA covenant ceiling from 2.5x to 3.5x, giving the company more financial room as ENC ramps up and mining operations expand.