SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 15–18, 2026. A mid-week hawkish Fed turn capped an early rally, but supply tightening and firm mill pricing lifted the SHFE board RMB 355/mt on the week of June 15–19.

[SMM Daily Review: Tightening Resource Supply, Nickel Iron Market Still Has Upside Room] On June 17, the upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI stood at 2.77, up 0.02 DoD, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.9, up 0.03 DoD.

[SMM Daily Review: Multi-Grade Batch Deals Conclude, Nickel Iron Prices Strengthen in Tiers] June 15 news: SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 2.75, up 0.01 MoM, while the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.87, up 0.03 MoM.

Nickel Ore " Stalemate in Pricing Game between Old and New HPM, Expectation of Looser Supply after the End of the Rainy Season Strengthened Compared to the Previous Period " The Indonesian nickel ore market remained broadly stable this week. For the second half of April, the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) was set at $16,933.60/dmt. Although the new HPM (Harga Patokan Mineral) formula now incorporates iron, cobalt, and chromium—significantly driving up theoretical benchmark prices—the market remains in a transitional "wait-and-see" period. Due to the abruptness of the policy and the subsequent surge in costs, most smelters currently refuse to accept the new premiums, insisting on the "Old HPM + Premium" pricing mechanism. Currently, the delivered price for 1.6% grade saprolite stands at $69.2–$80.2/wmt, while 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $31–$35/wmt. To date, no transactions based on the new multi-element formula have been reported. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite Supply Tightness : While saprolite supply remains extremely tight, mine output is expected to recover significantly in May as the rainy season concludes. With the RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) approval progress reaching 90%, expectations for an easing supply side have strengthened compared to previous periods. Notably, the average ore grade accepted by smelters has shifted slightly downward. Although the decrease is not yet substantial, some smelters have begun accepting lower-grade ore to mitigate high-grade shortages and cost pressures. Limonite Pricing Divergence : Limonite prices are likely to trend downward, failing to track the increases in the new HPM. Demand for limonite is under pressure due to a potential shortage of sulfuric acid in May, which may lead to reduced MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) production. Amid stable inventory levels, smelters continue to aggressively pressure prices, with a market expectation of an approximately $2 decline. 3. SMM Internal Estimates and Volatility Internal SMM calculations indicate that the new formula is causing price divergence and amplifying volatility, particularly for ores with high associated cobalt content. SMM estimates place the new HPM for 1.2% limonite at approximately $46.06/wmt, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% saprolite is estimated at $64.85/wmt. Although actual market transaction prices remain above these benchmarks, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Outlook According to the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached roughly 90%. SMM statistics show that total approved RKAB tonnage for nickel ore has reached approximately 230–240 million wmt, with final quotas expected to be finalized by the end of April. Due to anticipated RKAB quota reductions and high-grade ore shortages, some smelters have increased trade dividends and premiums to secure supply. The market is also closely monitoring Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) . Due to severe RKAB quota constraints for 2026, the WBN mine plans to enter a "Care and Maintenance" phase starting in May. The company is currently applying for a quota increase to alleviate the ore shortage at the IWIP (Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park). During this period, downstream NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) plants will draw from existing strategic stockpiles to maintain operations. Nickel Pig Iron " Supply and demand resonate, nickel iron prices continue to rise, and pre-holiday trading volume surges " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price increased by RMB 26.9 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1120 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 3.14 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 143.2 per nickel unit. This week, the high-nickel pig iron market first declined and then rose. At the beginning of the week, sentiment was weak, but with the tightening of Indonesian policies and the rise in nickel prices, bullish expectations strengthened, and the price center gradually shifted upward. From the supply side, domestic smelters have a strong sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, the upstream sentiment factor continues to strengthen, the mainstream quotation has shifted up to 1,140-1,150 yuan/nickel point, and some high quotations have reached 1,160-1,180 yuan/nickel point, but production profits remain under pressure; in Indonesia, the news of maintenance at mainstream mines has spread, the expectation of tightening on the nickel ore supply side has strengthened, and the logic of cost increase has continued to be strengthened. From the demand side, the strengthening of the stainless steel futures market has driven up the spot price, and after the return of steel mill profits, the acceptance of high-priced nickel iron has increased to some extent. At the same time, inelastic demand replenishment before the holiday has driven up trading volume. In summary, cost support and the expectation of tightening on the supply side have jointly pushed up the price of nickel pig iron, and it is expected that the price of high-nickel pig iron will still be supported next week.

As 2026 begins, Indonesian stainless steel prices have surged nearly $200/mt, breaching the $2,000 CIF barrier despite a sluggish global economy. The industry now faces a critical question: is this cost-driven rally sustainable, or is it a bubble waiting to burst as supply ramps up?

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Drives SS Futures to Stop Declining and Strengthen, Stainless Steel Market Faces Hidden Risk of Pullback SMM January 9: SS futures showed signs of stopping declines and strengthening. SHFE nickel rose again, driving stainless steel futures higher, with SS again strengthening and hitting a high of 13,885 yuan/mt. Spot market side, influenced by the market's "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment, stainless steel market inquiries and transactions were relatively active during the week. However, as stainless steel prices continued to climb, downstream end-users' fear of high prices gradually increased. Additionally, market expectations for the narrowing scope of Indonesian nickel ore approvals slowed down, and futures began to show significant fluctuations. Currently still in the traditional consumption off-season, stainless steel mills' January production schedule is expected to increase further, posing a substantial risk of pullback in the subsequent market. Social inventory fell 2.06% WoW this week to 854,600 mt. The most-traded SS futures contract declined and pulled back. At 10:30 a.m., SS2602 was quoted at 13,795 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 75-275 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,400 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 13,800 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,800 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was 25,850 yuan/mt, and 25,850 yuan/mt in Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was quoted at 24,550 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was 765...