LME nickel futures edged down just USD3 on June 2 to close at USD19,248/ton, firmly defending the USD19,200 threshold despite a minor pullback from a recent one-month high. Nickel is up USD186 this month and 15.6% year-to-date. LME inventories fell 1104 tons to 275,340 tons (-0.15% MTD), with Indonesian MHP output declines adding to supply tightness. While firm US labor data rekindled Fed inflation concerns, steady Chinese stainless steel demand and declining stockpiles offset seasonal supply increases from the Philippines, keeping nickel positioned for narrow-range stability.

LME nickel futures rebounded above US$19,200/ton on une 1, closing at US$19,251/to, a one-month high, on the back of consecutive weekly gains. The rally was driven by declining pure nickel inventories and fresh mining disruptions, including Zimbabwe's restriction on nickel exports, offsetting a stronger US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Spot prices rose US$172 to US$19,039/ton, Nickel increase US$2,605 or 15.6% year-to-date.

May high-grade NPI prices fell despite tighter costs, as nickel futures retreated, stainless margins weakened, and scrap regained its cost advantage. Indonesian policy and production-cut expectations built a floor, but weak downstream demand capped any rebound.

LME nickel futures closed at USD18,913/ton on May 22, gaining 2.3% on the week and snapping a two-week losing streak, supported by a stabilizing US dollar and Trump's persistent calls for Fed rate cuts. LME inventories dipped 600 tons to 279,072 tons, with May's average price of USD18,815 remaining above April levels. Near-term outlook stays uncertain, however, as record-low US consumer confidence and weak Chinese stainless steel demand during the late-May rainy season create headwinds. Market participants expect subdued and volatile trading ahead, though tight nickel ore supplies should provide a price floor.

Indonesian mills in Weda Bay Industrial Park cutting high-grade NPI production by 10–15% over coming months drove LME nickel futures to close at USD18,806/ton, with an intraday peak of USD19,165 and a price swing of USD745. Spot prices rose USD243 to USD18,609/ton. The rally came despite a stronger US dollar and Fed rate hike fears weighing on other base metals. LME inventories edged up 534 tons to 276,096 tons, while May's average price of USD18,854 already exceeds April's. Short-term volatility is expected as weak Chinese stainless steel demand and improving Philippine ore supplies cap further upside.

[SMM Nickel Flash] On May 18, futures continued to decline, and market pessimism spread. Upstream suppliers mostly maintained high offer prices, but actual transactions were scarce, with some softening in quoted prices. Downstream steel mills adopted a more cautious purchasing stance, mostly referencing steel scrap price ratios, with mainstream intended bids concentrated at 1120-1130 yuan/nickel unit, showing a clear divergence from upstream offers. Under the short-term downward trend, both upstream and downstream pricing sentiment remained cautious, further suppressing spot transaction activity.