This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Daily Comment: Supply and Demand Resonate on Both Sides, NPI Prices Continue to Rise] On April 30, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.58, up 0.04 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, flat MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 29, supply side, upstream sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling remained strong, with mainstream quotations concentrated at 1,120-1,150 yuan/nickel unit. Bullish expectations for the market strengthened, and post-holiday quotations are expected to continue rising. Meanwhile, costs of nickel ore raw materials in Indonesia continued to rise, further supporting upstream willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, affected by the deepening of invoice management controls, the market expected medium and long-term steel scrap procurement to remain restricted. Downstream steel mills' demand for NPI rose again, coupled with strong restocking willingness among steel mills underpinned by cost support.

[SMM Daily Comment: Downstream Transaction Volume Increase Drove Prices Up, Bullish Sentiment Strengthened] April 29 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.54, up 0.24 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, up 0.71 MoM.

[SMM Nickel Flash] April 29 — According to SMM, as invoicing controls continued to deepen, the market expected medium and long-term steel scrap procurement to remain restricted, and downstream steel mills saw renewed demand for NPI. Combined with persistently rising costs on the nickel ore raw material side, steel mills showed strong willingness to restock. The market had concluded tens of thousands of mt Ni in NPI transactions, with nickel content above 11%, at prices of 1,130-1,150 yuan/nickel unit, with delivery covering May-July. Bullish sentiment was strong in the market.

In Q1 2026, ANTAM produced 3.88 million wmt of nickel ore and sold 3.40 million wmt exclusively to the domestic market, maintaining steady operations using previous RKAB quotas before securing full approval in March. Concurrently, impacted by these raw material quota constraints and scheduled maintenance, the company's ferronickel segment produced 3,976 tons of nickel in ferronickel (TNi) and sold 2,803 TNi, successfully sustaining production continuity and its export positioning.