SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

May 29, 2026 12:50 IST The Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME Group ) has again slashed its margin requirements on futures contracts of gold , silver , and other precious metals. This marks its second revision in two months. The announcement comes at a time when media reports suggest that the US and Iran might be nearing a material agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the crucial trade route- Strait of Hormuz . The CME filing dated May 28 stated that margins are being reduced as a part of normal review activity to ensure adequate collateral coverage. The new margin requirements will come into effect from May 29. Precious metal prices have taken a hit since the start of the West Asia conflict, which has stretched for three months now. Gold prices have fallen by nearly 15%, while silver prices have declined by over 19% since tensions in the Middle East began on February 28. What are the new margin requirements? The initial margin requirements for COMEX 100 gold futures have been lowered to 5% from the previous 6% for non-heightened risk profiles (HRP), and for heightened risk profiles, the new initial requirements now stand at 5.5%, down 100 basis points from the previous 6.6%. As for COMEX 5000 silver futures, the new initial requirements have been reduced to 10% from 11% for Non-HRPs, while for HRPs, the new initial requirement is 11%, down from the previous 12.1%. Last month as well, the CME Group had lowered margin requirements on futures contracts of gold and silver. Platinum and Palladium requirements lowered too For NYMEX Platinum futures, the new initial requirement has been decreased to 9% from the previous 11% for Non-HRPs, while HRPs have seen a sharper reduction as the new initial requirement stands at 9.9%, down from the previous 12.1%. As for NYMEX Palladium futures, the new initial requirement for Non-HRPs is 10%, cut from the previous 12%, and for HRPs, the requirement is 11%, down from the previous 13.2%. What are margin requirements? In futures trading, margin requirements essentially mean the minimum amount of capital a trader must pay to hold their position. These are often referred to as performance bond requirements by CME Group, which owns and operates the COMEX exchange. Margin requirements are set by exchanges to manage market volatility. Lower margins mean traders need less capital to maintain a contract. This is often aimed at increasing participation and improving liquidity. How are CME requirements related to MCX? CME and MCX margin requirements are set independently by the respective exchanges. However, a reduction in CME margins is likely to increase global liquidity and participation, which generally supports international market prices and provides a tailwind to MCX prices, as they closely track COMEX prices. Source： https://www.financialexpress.com/market/commodities-cme-slashes-gold-silver-margins-for-second-time-in-two-months-what-it-means-for-mcx-prices-4254126/

SMM May 20 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals on domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.21% increase, while LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all rose less than 1%. LME tin fell 2.06%, LME copper 1.2%, SHFE tin dropped 1.35%, and other metals declined less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.11%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.24%. Overnight ferrous metals collectively rose. Stainless steel gained 0.38%, iron ore rose 0.25%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose around 0.03%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.04% and coke gained 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.59%, and COMEX silver dropped 4.49%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.11% to 989.5 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver dropped 3.44%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:47 AM on May 20: Macro Front On the evening of May 19, Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin paid a state visit to China from May 19 to 20. (CCTV News) China: [National Energy Administration: Total Electricity Consumption in April 2026 Up 6.0% YoY] On May 19, the National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for April. In April, total electricity consumption reached 820.5 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 11.2 billion kWh, up 2.0% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 558.4 billion kWh, up 5.3% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 553.8 billion kWh, up 5.5% YoY, and high-tech equipment manufacturing consumed 105 billion kWh, up 10.1% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 151.7 billion kWh, up 8.9% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 13.7 billion and 8.2 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 61.9% and 42.8%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 99.2 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. (National Energy Administration) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.31. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate given persistently elevated price pressures, and is exerting downward pressure on inflation. However, it is "healthy" for investors to begin considering scenarios where rate hikes may be needed. "Monetary policy is mildly restrictive, and that restrictiveness is helping to contain the impact of tariffs and price increases triggered by the Middle East conflict. Taking all of these... factors into account, I believe the current monetary policy stance is appropriate," Paulson said in remarks prepared for an Atlanta Fed conference. (Wallstreetcn) Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voting member): She is inclined to keep rates steady and has set sustained progress on disinflation as a precondition for cutting interest rates. The labour market remains stable, but inflation is still too high. An interest rate cut will only become appropriate when sustained progress on reducing inflation is observed. The US Fed's future policy path largely depends on how long the war's disruption to oil and other commodity supplies persists. If the conflict is resolved quickly, inflation and inflation risks could dissipate relatively rapidly. (Wallstreetcn) A Huatai Securities research report stated that it is indeed difficult for the US Fed to cut interest rates again in H2 this year, and based on current trends, rate hikes may be necessary next year. Huatai Securities' latest base case assumption is that the US Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged this year, but guidance will be more hawkish than before. The neutral forecast for next year is two rate hikes, above current market expectations, primarily based on a relatively optimistic base case assumption for nominal growth. However, this forecast still faces considerable uncertainties including US economic fundamentals, geopolitical changes, and global growth. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 84.4%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 14.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, UK April CPI MoM, UK April Retail Price Index MoM, Germany April PPI MoM, Eurozone April CPI YoY final, and Eurozone April CPI MoM final. In addition, SpaceX's Starship V3 will attempt its maiden flight, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will deliver a speech, and Fed Governor Barr will also speak. Crude oil: As of overnight close, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 1.05%. Earlier, US Vice President Vance said significant progress had been made in US-Iran negotiations, somewhat easing market concerns about crude oil supply. Notably, the NYMEX WTI crude oil June futures contract, affected by contract rollover, completed its last pit trading at 2:30 AM on May 20 and last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to exchange expiration and rollover announcements to manage risk. Additionally, some trading platforms typically expire WTI contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please take note. Citigroup maintained its consistent view that the current crude oil market clearly underestimates the duration of geopolitical risks and potential tail risks. Brent crude prices are expected to surge to $120/barrel in the near term. Under a bullish scenario (with multiple pathways that could trigger it), Brent crude could reach as high as $150/barrel. Citi's forecast for 2026 global crude oil demand growth is -600,000 bpd (-0.6 mb/d), with YoY declines in Q2, Q3, and Q4 estimated at -2.4 million bpd, -800,000 bpd, and -300,000 bpd respectively. (Wallstreetcn) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory was -9.11 million barrels, compared with -2.188 million barrels the previous week. Last week, API Cushing crude oil inventory was -1.428 million barrels (previous: -1.755 million barrels). Last week, API gasoline inventory was -5.795 million barrels (previous: +502,000 barrels), and distillate inventory was -1.047 million barrels (previous: -319,000 barrels). (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported, citing a senior NATO official, that NATO is discussing the possibility of assisting commercial vessels through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if it remains closed by early July. According to a diplomat from a NATO member state, the proposal has received support from several NATO members but has not yet achieved the unanimous consent required for approval. A coalition led by France and the UK is developing a plan to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as frontline hostilities ease. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 20 – April 24), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 524.15 yuan/gram and closed at 498.3 yuan/gram, down 28.2 yuan/gram or 5.36% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 532.35 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 494.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 383.95 yuan/gram and closed at 359.65 yuan/gram, down 25.1 yuan/gram or 6.52% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 390 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 356.8 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,536 lots with a total turnover of 7.509 billion yuan and open interest of 15,520 lots, an increase of 98 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,748 lots with a total turnover of 3.647 billion yuan and open interest of 7,843 lots, an increase of 428 lots WoW. [Key News] US-Iran conflict: geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the second round of US-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. Trump stated he had ordered the sinking of any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, announced a three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, invited Lebanese and Israeli leaders to visit the US, and warned Iran that the US would resort to military means if Iran refused to negotiate. Iran stated the focus of negotiations had shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire. US Fed monetary policy: Warsh expressed his policy stance favoring interest rate cuts at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and advocated a return of monetary policy to its fundamentals. This shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction. Trade and tariffs: after the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs via Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. South Africa's president accepted US credentials, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at month-end, the US may leverage the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, effective from the trading session on April 27, the trading commission and intraday close-today commission for the platinum and palladium June contracts would be reduced from 0.025% to 0.01%. Events to watch: continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and speeches by US Fed officials. Monitor the trial results of palladium in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end. Precious metals benefited from US midterm election dynamics. Strategically, maintain a bullish stance on platinum and palladium, with pullbacks as opportunities to go long. Watch for regional palladium premiums in the US market. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling are key variables. Risk-wise, be alert to fluctuations in the Middle East situation and delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

SMM, April 22: Metals market: As of the overnight close, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME zinc, SHFE zinc, and SHFE nickel rising. LME zinc rose 0.67%, SHFE zinc rose 0.08%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.19%. LME tin led the decline with a 2.01% drop, SHFE tin fell 1.85%, and the remaining metals fell less than 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.35%, and the foundry aluminum main contract fell 0.36%. Overnight ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with stainless steel falling 0.9% and iron ore rising 0.19%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal fell 0.16% and coke rose 0.37%. Overnight precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 1.87% and COMEX silver fell 4.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.66% and SHFE silver fell 3.73%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM, April 22: Macro Front China: [State Council: Support Procurement of Large Language Models and AI Agent Services, Moderately Advance Construction of Mobile IoT] The State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry." It mentioned deepening the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, accelerating the R&D and adoption of intelligent programming tools, and supporting the procurement of large language models and AI agent services. It called for accelerating innovation breakthroughs in industrial software, building compatibility adaptation and application demonstration centers for key industry industrial software, strengthening the ecosystem of basic software and open-source communities, and optimizing the smart audio-visual system ecosystem. It also urged deeper promotion of large-scale 5G applications, advancing 5G-A network development, strengthening 6G technology R&D, moderately advancing the construction of mobile IoT, and developing satellite internet application services. (Jin10 Data) [MIIT Responds to Memory Chip Price Increases, Will Take Multiple Measures to Ensure Industry Chain Supply Chain Stability] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on Q1 2026 industrial and information technology development. Xie Cun, spokesperson of MIIT and Director-General of the Department of Information and Communications Development, stated that recent memory chip price increases had triggered price adjustments in mobile phone end-use products, drawing widespread attention. To address this issue, MIIT will take multiple measures to support the development of the memory chip industry and ensure industry chain supply chain stability. On one hand, it will enhance supply capacity, promote supply-demand alignment, encourage both domestic and foreign enterprises to increase investment and boost output capacity, and support end-users and memory chip enterprises in strengthening interaction and expanding diversified supply channels. On the other hand, it will maintain market order through various means, guide memory chip enterprises to strengthen channel management, and cooperate with relevant departments to crack down on market-disrupting activities in accordance with the law. (Securities Times) (Jin10 Data APP) [MIIT: 10G Optical Network Pilot Project Construction Progressing in an Orderly Manner with Good Completion of Pilot Targets] MIIT issued a notice on the completion of 10G optical network pilot projects. Overall, pilot project construction progressed in an orderly manner, with good completion of pilot targets. The 10G optical network achieved pilot deployment in scenarios such as residential communities, factories, and industrial parks, cultivating business applications including cloud computers, cloud gaming, industrial optical quality inspection, AI + ultra-high-definition video surveillance, model training and inference applications, and integrated sensing and communication, providing important references for promoting the transition of 10G optical networks from technical pilots to deployment and application. (MIIT) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.33% to 98.38. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh believed that the US Fed should reduce its reliance on forward guidance and warned that excessive transparency could hinder policy flexibility when circumstances change. He said: "The Fed reveals to the whole world... what their forecasts will be," but "the Fed sticks to its forecasts for too long," a phenomenon related to the Fed's delayed response to surging inflation during the pandemic from 2021 to 2022. In his view, making fewer commitments would help achieve more flexible decision-making, because "if the Fed waits until a meeting to make a decision, then this gradual assessment process can prevent the central bank from making repeated mistakes." He viewed this as part of a broader reform agenda, adding: "I believe these changes are very necessary, and if confirmed, I look forward to implementing them." (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended a Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of pursuing "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts" in parallel: at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the Fed's balance sheet size, withdrawing from quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its core monetary policy role; at the interest rate level, although no explicit commitment was made, his statements already indicated an inclination toward interest rate cuts. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of de-globalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate were scheduled for release today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Brookings Institution. According to media reports, the US and Iran plan to hold talks in Pakistan on Wednesday. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together, with WTI up 3.2% and Brent up 3.75%, as prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks appeared dim. Between 3:35 and 4:10 Beijing time, WTI and Brent traced an N-shaped pattern with a swing of over $4 in roughly half an hour — prices surged on reports that US and Iranian representatives had canceled plans to head to Pakistan, then briefly erased gains when Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire agreement. (Jinshi Data APP) A research report from CITIC Securities Construction Investment noted that the repeated fluctuations in the Strait of Hormuz situation indicate that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market continues to unfold along a three-stage logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, suggesting the situation has not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the US-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is currently still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolve in three stages: rates rise during the conflict period; vessel redeployment lengthens shipping distances and pushes up the freight rate center; and after the blockade is lifted, a scramble for oil may drive rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — is bound to transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jinshi Data APP) US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 17 came in at -4.47 million barrels, versus expectations of -1.8 million barrels and a prior reading of 6.101 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures contract, affected by contract rollover, completed its final pit trading at 2:30 on April 22 and its final electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for WTI crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please take note.