[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

African Rainbow Minerals is evaluating the restart of open-pit operations at its fully-owned Nkomati nickel mine in South Africa after securing a conditional off-take agreement with Sweden's Boliden AB. The mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in 2021 due to high costs and weak prices, became wholly owned by ARM after it acquired Nornickel's 50% stake in July 2025. Under the new agreement, which remains subject to board approval and responsible sourcing due diligence, Nkomati will supply nickel concentrate to Boliden's Harjavalta smelter in Finland, Europe's only large-scale nickel smelter. This potential restart business case is further bolstered by recent market trends, as nickel prices approach two-year highs driven by policy-related supply cuts in top producer Indonesia.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 13 – April 17), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 507.4 yuan/gram and closed at 526.25 yuan/gram, up 1.8 yuan/gram or 0.34% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 544.65 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 507.4 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 382.25 yuan/gram and closed at 384.1 yuan/gram, down 4.15 yuan/gram or 1.07% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 402.25 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 380.75 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 17,688 lots with a total turnover of 9.37 billion yuan and open interest of 15,422 lots, an increase of 119 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,322 lots with a total turnover of 3.637 billion yuan and open interest of 7,415 lots, an increase of 199 lots WoW. Geopolitical conflicts: A ten-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on Thursday. Trump seized the opportunity to claim that Iran had agreed not to possess nuclear weapons and that US-Iran talks could resume this weekend. He stated that "Iran has agreed to almost all demands" and that a deal would cause oil prices to plunge. However, Iranian officials have not yet responded. US Fed monetary policy: As US-Iran tensions eased temporarily, expectations for interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat. Data side, although US CPI surged significantly, core CPI came in below expectations, reflecting mild underlying inflation, which weakened expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. A Fed rate hike remains a low-probability event. Trade and tariffs: After reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end in April may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. Tax rebate pressures are exacerbating fiscal burdens and reinforcing the weak US dollar logic. US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that tariff levels may be restored by early July. South African President Ramaphosa accepted the credentials of new US Ambassador Bozell, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at the end of April, the US may rely on the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry may accelerate the shift from platinum to palladium applications. Nornickel estimated that if trials go smoothly, China's demand will reach 800,000 ounces, accounting for approximately 10% of global supply. Event-wise, continued focus should be placed on changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be given to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector and the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at the end of April. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling remain key variables, and caution is warranted against fluctuations and opening gaps.

Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is betting on artificial intelligence as part of a $100 million push to find additional uses for palladium as electric vehicles erode the metal’s main source of demand.Nornickel, the world’s biggest palladium producer, aims to create 1.7 million ounces of new annual consumption for the metal. That’s equivalent to almost a fifth of existing demand.

Russian mining and metals conglomerate Norilsk Nickel announced on Monday that it has fully completed the reconstruction of its cobalt production facility in the Murmansk region, which was damaged in a fire back in September 2022. As Russia’s sole cobalt producer, the facility had an annual production capacity of 2,500 metric tons prior to the 2022 blaze. In the aftermath of the fire, the company only restored part of the facility, bringing its annual output down to 1,000 metric tons (including both cobalt concentrate and pure cobalt). Following the full-scale reconstruction and upgrading, the annual production capacity of the cobalt plant will be increased to 3,000 metric tons of metallic cobalt.

【SMM Nickel Market Flash】Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) reported its Q3 2025 nickel production reached approximately 53,600 tonnes, an 18.4% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 4% decrease year-on-year. The company attributed the quarterly growth to increased processing of semi-finished materials built up in Q2. Production for the first nine months totaled 140,000 tonnes, down 4% year-on-year. Nornickel maintained its full-year 2025 nickel production guidance of 196,000-204,000 tonnes. Copper output in Q3 was 100,105 tonnes, down 4% Q-o-Q and 7% Y-o-Y, with the annual target set at 343,000-355,000 tonnes.