[SMM Analysis: July Imports Fell to a Year-to-Date Low; High-Grade NPI Cargoes May Be Delayed in Arrivals] According to customs data, China’s high-grade NPI imports in July 2026 extended the downward trend, falling for the third consecutive month and hitting a year-to-date low.

Ferrochrome Price Review Ferrochrome prices saw no adjustments this week. As of August 21, 2026: Inner Mongolia high‑carbon ferrochrome is RMB 7,850‑8,000 /50‑metric‑ton base unit; Sichuan and Northwest China high‑carbon ferrochrome is RMB 7,950‑8,050 /50‑metric‑ton base unit; East China high‑carbon ferrochrome is RMB 8,300‑8,400 /50‑metric‑ton base unit; Kazakh high‑carbon ferrochrome is RMB 9,200‑9,300 /50‑metric‑ton base unit; The high‑carbon ferrochrome steel tender expectation index registered RMB 8,030.23 /50‑metric‑ton base unit, with mainstream market expectations pointing to flat or modestly lower prices. Demand Side The downstream stainless steel market trended weakly this week. Futures slipped, and spot prices followed suit. Although the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September & Silver October” is approaching, market confidence remains subdued. Steel mills show low willingness for pre‑stockbuilding, and there has been no material recovery in inquiries and procurement for ferrochrome. Most market participants take a wait‑and‑see approach and will formulate plans after major steel mills release tender prices next month. Supply Side Domestic ferrochrome production presents widening north‑south divergence. Smelters in southern regions such as Guangxi and Guizhou have cut output amid cost‑margin inversion, dragging down regional ferrochrome output. Inner Mongolia in the north maintains stable operation with output staying at high levels, and overall ferrochrome supply remains ample. On the import front, insufficient production resumption in South Africa and high costs in Zimbabwe keep imports low, exerting little near‑term market impact. Overall, supply surplus is the core theme, and ferrochrome prices are expected to run soft in the short term. Chrome Ore Price Review As of August 21, 2026, Tianjin Port quotations: South African 40‑42% chrome concentrate ore at RMB 53.5‑54.5 /dmtu; Zimbabwean 48‑50% chrome concentrate ore at RMB 58.5‑60 /dmtu; Turkish 40‑42% chrome lumpy ore at RMB 70‑71 /dmtu, flat week‑on‑week. Overseas offers: South African 40‑42% chrome concentrate ore at USD 285 /ton, flat week‑on‑week; Zimbabwean 48‑50% chrome concentrate ore at USD 365‑375 /ton, up USD 5 week‑on‑week; Turkish 40‑42% chrome lumpy ore at USD 340‑350 /ton, up USD 10 week‑on‑week. Supply Side Chrome ore port inventories fluctuate around the extremely high level of 5 million tonnes, keeping supply loose. South African chrome ore fines are sufficiently available. Major overseas mines have kept offers unchanged for two consecutive rounds, underpinning price floors while capping the upside for chrome ore prices. Supply of mainstream‑origin chrome ore and high‑grade chrome ore concentrates is tight. Rising ocean freight rates push up transportation costs; forward prices from overseas mines remain firm, increasing cost pressure for traders and reinforcing their price‑holding sentiment. Supported by the above factors, spot quotations remained stable this week amid stalemated bargaining between buyers and sellers, with limited physical concluded trades. Demand Side Entering a new round of steel tender bidding cycle, wait‑and‑see sentiment prevails across the market. Ferrochrome smelters stay prudent and avoid long‑term stockbuilding. In addition, ferrochrome supply surplus weighs on ferrochrome prices. Smelters are under heavy production‑cost pressure and inventory‑liquidation pressure, showing limited willingness to purchase raw‑material chrome ore, and no large‑scale bulk buying has taken place. Only sporadic small‑volume deals were closed this week, preventing sharp price swings.

Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 Grade: 11,900-11,900 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 Grade: 11,300-11,300 yuan/mt This week, China's grain-oriented silicon steel market was in the doldrums. Prices in mainstream markets in Shanghai and Wuhan remained stable, with no public price adjustment operations, and overall transaction performance was average. Supply side, production schedules of mainstream steel mills remained stable. After the August EXW base price of grain-oriented silicon steel was raised by 50 yuan/mt, mainstream steel mills such as Baosteel and Shougang Group have released September futures price policies, with the base price of grain-oriented silicon steel raised by another 50 yuan/mt, marking two consecutive months of EXW price increases (Sina Finance). Raw material costs combined with the September price hike policies further strengthened cost bottom support, and steel mills' willingness to hold prices firm was strong, providing strong support for spot market prices. However, the current period is the traditional off-season for demand, and the positive impact of steel mills' price increases is blocked from being transmitted downstream, with spot prices lacking momentum to follow up and being unable to drive spot prices to rise. Demand side, under high-temperature weather, the transformer industry enters a traditional off-season, and the pace of power grid tender projects landing is relatively slow. End-user transformer enterprises adopt conservative procurement strategies, mostly maintaining only essential scattered replenishment, with insufficient willingness for active batch stockpiling. Market communication atmosphere is sluggish, and industry participants are generally cautious. Overall, supply and demand continue to compete. Two consecutive rounds of EXW price increases by steel mills in August and September, combined with raw material costs, effectively limit the room for deep price declines. However, there is no clear signal of demand recovery in the short term. It is expected that grain-oriented silicon steel will remain stable next week, continuing the pattern of in-the-doldrums consolidation, with market transactions still dominated by essential demand. The market will continue to monitor the progress of power grid tender fulfillment, downstream transformer enterprise production schedules, and fluctuations in raw material costs. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, all other data in this report are derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, NBS data, customs import/export data, various data released by major associations and institutions, etc.), market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database models, comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team. This report is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the right of final interpretation of this statement and reserves the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement based on actual circumstances.

The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell by 5.6 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,127.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of the Indonesia NPI FOB index dropped by 0.61 $/nickel unit WoW to 145.91 $/nickel unit. This week, overall trading in the spot market for high-grade NPI remained mediocre, with insufficient market activity and the market continuing to operate under pressure in a deadlock.

South Korea’s lithium market gradually regained momentum through July as the June–July price correction encouraged buyers to reassess procurement. Lithium carbonate drew growing interest from LFP, ESS and conversion demand, while lithium hydroxide improved around selected high-nickel projects. H2 demand will increasingly depend on actual production ramp-ups.

Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B50A800 grade: 4,350-4,350 yuan/mt Guangzhou B50A800 grade: 4,150-4,150 yuan/mt Wuhan 50WW800 grade: 4,150--4,150 yuan/mt Shanghai market: This week, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market was in the doldrums, with overall market transactions remaining sluggish in the off-season. Market feedback indicated that the HRC futures consolidated and strengthened this week, providing slightly stronger cost support for non-oriented silicon steel. However, the current supply-demnd imbalance in silicon steel was quite prominent, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Some motor enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Even with reduced supply, overall sales pressure remained significant. Overall, it is expected that next week, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Shanghai will remain in the doldrums, fluctuating with costs. Guangzhou market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Guangzhou strengthened slightly, with prices raised by 10-20 yuan/mt, but transactions were sluggish. Market feedback indicated that the HRC futures strengthened this week, but the cost increase provided weak guidance on spot prices. The industry was still in the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream motor and other end-user enterprises maintaining low operating rates and conservative procurement attitudes. Overall stockpiling willingness was low. Overall, it is expected that next week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel price in Guangzhou will be in the doldrums. Wuhan market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Wuhan held stable temporarily, with poor transaction performance. Market feedback indicated that the HRC futures consolidated and strengthened this week, but market confidence was insufficient, and actual transactions still allowed for negotiation. Downstream enterprises were moderately active in purchasing, mainly making just-in-time procurement. Most participants held a cautious attitude toward future market trends. Overall, it is expected that next week, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Wuhan will remain in the doldrums. Data Source Declaration: (Except for publicly available information, all other data in this report are publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, enterprise financial reports, securities reports, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, customs import and export data, various data released by major associations and institutions, etc.), market communication, and rely on SMM’s internal database models. They are comprehensive analyses and reasonable inferences made by the research team, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final right to interpret these terms and conditions, and reserves the right to adjust and modify the content of the disclaimer according to actual circumstances.