04 July 2026, 10:49 UTC JPMorgan turned cautious on gold and cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500. The revised target drops from around $6,000, with gold seen averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026. JPMorgan kept its long-term bullish view, citing central bank buying and strong physical demand. JPMorgan just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000. The recalibration follows weaker demand from key buying sectors. This move signals fresh caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its longer-term bullish thesis fully intact. JPMorgan Slashed Its Gold Forecast 25% A price forecast is an analyst’s projection of where an asset may trade over a defined future period. JPMorgan now projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in Q4. The cut is significant in scale. The bank previously targeted roughly $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. As a result, the new $4,500 target represents a roughly 25% reduction from prior expectations for the same period. The recalibration stems from softer demand. Purchasing power has weakened among gold’s major demand centers. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, capping the near-term price ceiling. The bank described the situation as “range-bound”. As a result, traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold. Other institutions remain more bullish. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. Furthermore, UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also eyes $5,200 in H2 2026, but warns that gold needs stronger ETF inflows first. The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data. Why JPMorgan’s Long-Term Bullish View Holds Despite the cut, JPMorgan’s medium- to long-term view remains firmly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could drive gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand well beyond the current short-term consolidation phase across global markets. First, central banks worldwide continue accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to keep strengthening over the coming months. Both trends provide a durable floor under prices across the entire outlook. Second, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, that pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to retain its role as both a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The JPMorgan forecast also carries implications for crypto markets. Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term. However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a temporary pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend. Source： https://beincrypto.com/jpmorgan-changes-gold-price-outlook-q4-2026/

Jul 2, 2026 4:17 PM EDT Gold investors were bracing for more sluggishness. Following months of pressure, investors expected the next big call on the shiny yellow metal to be much more defensive, especially as rate-cut hopes faded and the dollar regained some bite. For context, gold was recently trading near the low $4,000s, with spot prices at around $4,064 per ounce at the time of writing. Gold price rebounded amid weak jobs data, lower oil prices, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ’s latest comments. Speaking in Portugal, according to Investopedia , Warsh said inflation risks were diminishing somewhat. While it was far from a clear signal of a rate cut, the comments gave gold a short-term lift and injected life back into the debasement trade. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs isn’t treating the recent pullback as the end of the gold trade. The bank’s latest message is much more measured but adds to the bull case for higher gold prices. Goldman was focusing on a deeper source of demand that does not move like a short-term ETF trade. Though gold has lost momentum, Goldman says the bigger force behind the rally remains intact. Wall Street price targets for gold prices Goldman Sachs : $4,900/oz by end-2026. Goldman’s leans on sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification . JPMorgan : $6,000/oz by Q4 2026. JPMorgan sees gold pushing higher as central bank demand and macro uncertainty remain supportive. UBS : $5,200/oz over the next 12 months. UBS says gold can rebound as markets rethink Fed policy, dollar pressure, and central bank buying. Morgan Stanley : $5,200/oz in H2 2026. Morgan Stanley says gold needs stronger ETF inflows to make that target realistic. Bank of America : $4,800/oz by Q4 2026. BofA trimmed its near-term outlook as investor demand weakened and Fed headwinds grew. Sources: Reuters, Kitco News, Business Insider, Investing, JPMorgan Global Research, and Morgan Stanley/Bank of America notes cited by Kitco. What Goldman Sachs said about gold’s next move Goldman Sachs just drew a clear line between gold’s pullback and its long-term thesis. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argued that gold’s sharp four-month decline doesn’t mean the bull case is wrapped up and that she still sees room for the metal to climb toward its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, according to Kitco News . Gold had been one of Wall Street ’s strongest momentum stories, stoked by inflation fears, central-bank buying, and geopolitical risk. The setup then took a major blow amid higher-rate expectations; a stronger dollar and softer ETF demand weighed on prices. Goldman’s point is that the primary structural buyer hasn’t disappeared. Dart acknowledged that a hawkish Fed has hurt the debasement trade and pressured ETF demand. But Goldman is still leaning on central-bank buying, especially emerging-market reserve diversification, anchoring its forecast. She wrote that “EM central bank diversification” remains the key driver, with the post-2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves influencing how some central banks think about gold. The World Gold Council data supports that argument. The 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to increase their holdings. It’s important to note that in May, according to Yahoo Finance , Goldman revised their central-bank gold-demand model after finding official trade data was missing some sovereign buying. Consequently, its 12-month purchase forecast jumped to nearly 50 tonnes per month from 29 tonnes per month, and the bank now sees roughly 60 tonnes per month through 2026. Goldman said UK trade data understated London vault outflows since August 2025, while geopolitical uncertainty and diversification demand kept underlying interest strong. The bank had slashed its $5,400/oz year-end 2026 target by $500 to $4,900 in June, citing the reality of a hawkish Fed. What has to happen for gold to reach $4,900 For gold to reach Goldman’s $4,900/oz target, the market needs a lot more than sovereign buying. It needs pressure from rates, the dollar, and investor flows to ease simultaneously. The first gate is U.S. labor data. Reuters reported June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 economists expected, while May was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. That sort of slowdown could help gold if it reduces market confidence that the Fed has to stay hawkish. The second aspect to consider is policy language. According to MoneyControl , Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped gold rebound by saying inflation risks had eased, but he also reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% target and warned against assuming looser policy. That means gold needs cooler inflation and softer jobs data to become a trend rather than a one-day reaction. The third point to consider is the return of private money. The World Gold Council said global gold ETF flows slowed to a “trickle” in May, with ETF assets down 2% month over month to $604 billion. Without stronger ETF demand, gold may recover, but the move toward $4,900 becomes harder to sustain. source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-delivers-honest-verdict-on-golds-selloff

SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM, June 30: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and Chinese markets mostly fell, with only LME copper and SHFE zinc rising together—LME copper fell 0.17%, while SHFE zinc gained 0.12%. LME aluminum dropped 3.11%, leading the decline; LME nickel, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all fell more than 2%, with LME nickel down 2.41%, SHFE aluminum down 2.19%, and SHFE nickel down 2.55%. LME tin fell 1.27%, and declines in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.82%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 1.08%. Overnight, in ferrous metals, iron ore gained 0.61%, stainless steel fell 0.92%, HRC and rebar fluctuated with relatively small declines, and in coking coal and coke, coking coal gained 0.16% while coke fell 0.18%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.61% and COMEX silver fell 1.54%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.25% and SHFE silver fell 0.98%. As of 6:42 AM on June 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health"] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health". The meeting noted that the strategic driving role of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality should be leveraged to promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure and create more green economic growth points. It is necessary to focus on key areas and critical links with sustained effort, accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure, advance industrial greening and low-carbonisation, improve systems for laws, regulations, standards, and carbon emission statistical accounting, conduct evaluation and assessment in a scientific and orderly manner, integrate green and low-carbon orientation into all areas and links of the national economic cycle, promote the formation of green production and lifestyles, and strengthen the green foundation for high-quality development. The meeting noted that in recent years, the construction of a Healthy China has accelerated, and people's health levels have continued to improve. It is necessary to build a full-life-cycle health service system, coordinate resource allocation, strengthen synergy among medical care, medical insurance, and disease control, and provide the public with systematic, continuous, high-quality, and efficient health services. It is necessary to vigorously develop the health industry, improve supporting policies, cultivate and expand new-type service formats in the health sector, enrich the supply of health products, strictly enforce quality and safety supervision, and enable the public to consume with confidence and live healthily. (CCTV News) [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence. The meeting noted that it is necessary to deeply grasp the evolution trends of AI, improve supporting policies and governance systems, and firmly hold the initiative in development. Efforts should be intensified to promote AI innovation and breakthroughs, accelerate key technology research and the construction of ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, strengthen the supply of high-quality data, enhance the guarantee of factors such as talent and capital, and support enterprises in conducting basic research and frontier exploration. It is necessary to deeply implement the "AI+" initiative, leverage China's advantages in having a complete industrial system and abundant application scenarios, and promote the accelerated large-scale commercial application of intelligent products and services. The bottom line of AI safety must be firmly upheld, improving institutional rules on technology ethics and testing and certification, building a dynamically adaptive, tiered, and classified safety regulatory system, and strengthening international cooperation on AI governance. (CCTV News) [Multiple Shanghai municipal departments jointly held a centralized meeting on the compliance governance of ride-hailing platforms] On the afternoon of June 29, led by the Shanghai Ride-Hailing Collaborative Supervision Task Force and coordinating multiple departments including transportation, public security, market regulation, human resources and social security, data, and communications management, a centralized meeting on compliance governance of ride-hailing platform enterprises was held citywide. The main responsible persons from 24 ride-hailing platforms and aggregation platforms in the city attended the meeting. Targeting various problems identified during inspections, the meeting specified five mandatory compliance governance requirements: first, platforms must strictly regulate capacity access management, comprehensively screen and remove non-compliant vehicles and personnel, and strictly prohibit dispatching orders in violation of regulations; second, improve the routine self-inspection mechanism for operational data to ensure that data is reported to regulatory authorities in a complete, timely, and standardized manner; third, implement full-chain control of safety production, strengthen dynamic verification of personnel and vehicle qualifications, and build a solid line of defense for safe operations; fourth, fully standardize the fee disclosure mechanism, with clear price labeling and transparent charging, to protect the legitimate rights and interests of both drivers and passengers; fifth, simultaneously enhance network security operation and maintenance management, complete network security graded protection assessments on schedule, and promptly identify and eliminate system security risks. (Shanghai Transportation) (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.25% to close at 101.11, recording its third consecutive daily decline. US President Donald Trump responded on his social media platform to the "Supreme Court ruling on the case concerning a Federal Reserve Board member", stating: We will take corresponding action regarding the Cook lawsuit to ensure that Cook will not make crucial decisions (on FOMC monetary policy issues). Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari publicly stated last Friday that his assessment of the federal funds rate has undergone a fundamental shift over the past three months. In March of this year, Kashkari still leaned toward the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points. In his latest dot plot projections, however, he has marked one rate hike to be implemented within the year. As an official with voting rights on the FOMC in 2026, his shift in view also reflects a significant adjustment in the Fed's overall policy tone. The market simultaneously digested the signal of a collective hawkish turn by the Fed, leading to notable pricing adjustments. In early June, the probability of a rate hike within the year priced in by the market was only 25%; that figure has now climbed to 67%. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 29.9%. By September, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 14.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: The yen depreciated against the US dollar to its lowest level since 1986. This "milestone" decline has sparked concerns within Japan and also put traders on high alert, closely watching whether authorities will intervene in the market. The yen briefly fell 0.1% against the dollar, touching 161.96, thereby breaching the 161.95 level reached in July 2024 when Japan took action to prop up the currency. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1% on June 16, the highest level since 1995. However, this move had little effect, as traders expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance going forward. Furthermore, the Japanese government is expected to call for the implementation of "appropriate" currency management in its basic policy guidelines, a move apparently aimed at dissuading the central bank from further rate hikes. Japan previously conducted record-scale foreign exchange intervention totaling ¥11.73 trillion, yet the yen remained persistently weak. According to the Ministry of Finance's foreign reserve data, Japan likely utilized its holdings of foreign securities, including US Treasury bonds, during this round of intervention to support the currency. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include China's June official manufacturing PMI, US April FHFA House Price Index month-over-month, US April S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index year-over-year, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS Job Openings, US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, UK Q1 GDP final year-over-year, UK Q1 Current Account, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI month-over-month preliminary, France June CPI month-over-month preliminary, Switzerland June KOF Economic Leading Indicator, Canada April GDP month-over-month, and Japan May unemployment rate. In addition, ECB President Lagarde delivered opening remarks at the Global Central Bank Forum in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran held technical negotiations. Notably, on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Northbound and Southbound Trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada will also be closed for Canada Day. On the crude oil front: Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 1.34%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions flared up again, but optimistic market expectations for the gradual resumption of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz capped the gains to some extent. Morgan Stanley stated that due to the faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with high US exports and low Chinese imports, it lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast. It cut its Q3 2026 price forecast by $15 to $75 per barrel; Q4 2026 by $5 to $75; Q1 and Q2 2027 by $5 to $75; and Q3 and Q4 2027 by $10 to $70. It noted: "For the market to balance in 2027, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz need only recover to 11-12 million barrels per day, about 65% of pre-conflict levels. Looking ahead to 2027, our model assumes this figure will be exceeded, and observable inventories will increase by 3 million barrels per day, which may put pressure on oil prices." (Wall Street CN) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. This drawdown was part of an agreement reached by the US to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill global inventory gaps following the Iran conflict and help lower fuel prices. Amid strong US crude exports and refining demand, US crude inventories have declined rapidly in recent weeks. Since the conflict erupted at end-February, total US inventories through June 19, including commercial stocks and the SPR, have fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump posted that gasoline retailers must immediately lower prices. Given that crude oil prices have fallen to $68 per barrel and are still declining, current gasoline prices are far too high. Retailers must respond swiftly to this statement and take the right actions they know well—lower prices for our great American people. Price gouging will never be allowed; it is completely illegal. If retailers do not comply, they will face major trouble ahead! The target price should be around $2.50 per gallon (note: the current national average gasoline price is about $3.86 per gallon), and California should stop taxing gasoline so heavily. Soon, the tax will exceed the product price itself; the US will never tolerate this, and the people of California won't either—they are being squeezed by these absurd taxes and their state government. (Jin10 Data APP)

Morgan Stanley released a research report, forecasting that production of EPYC Venice processors will reach 6.75 million units in 2027, about 17% more than Nvidia Vera's 5.75 million units. Toll processing side, Morgan Stanley estimates that TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity will rise to 200,000 wafers per month in 2027, and Nvidia will remain the largest client for its advanced packaging.

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►