[Oxide downtrend drags metals lower, medium-heavy rare earths firm but transactions stagnant] Last week, nearing the weekend, downstream enterprises’ inquiry activity was low; some traders slightly lowered their quotes, but most factories held firm offers, resulting in few actual transactions; on the medium-heavy rare earth front, upstream supply was tight, market quotes remained firm, but metal plants’ purchase willingness was low.

[7.2 Morning Meeting Minutes] Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen under US pressure; meanwhile, according to foreign media reports, Iran has secretly ordered the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks power facilities. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 129,450 yuan/mt, down 1.14%. Bullish macro, policy, and cost-side factors, combined with strengthening technicals, give nickel prices rebound momentum, but weak demand and high inventories continue to cap the upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Drift Higher, Spot Market Stable in Narrow Range Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract drifted higher overall in the night session, closing at 23,175 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.65%.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,413/mt, dipped to an early low of $13,382/mt, then the center of copper prices drifted higher, climbing to $13,533/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,528/mt, down 0.11%. Trading volume reached 19,600 lots, and open interest stood at 245,000 lots, an increase of 3,041 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bearish position-building. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,000 yuan/mt early in the session, then drifted higher to hit a high of 103,990 yuan/mt near the close, finally closing at 103,880 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest was 184,000 lots, up 3,839 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish position additions.

SMM, July 20: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,413/mt, fell to a low of $13,382/mt early in the session, then the price center drifted higher, rising to $13,533/mt near the end, and finally settled at $13,528/mt, down 0.11%. Trading volume reached 19,600 lots, and open interest reached 245,000 lots, up 3,041 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears added to their positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,000 yuan/mt early on, then copper prices drifted higher, touching a high of 103,990 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,880 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest reached 184,000 lots, up 3,839 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added to their positions. On the macro front, Iran ceased implementing the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, and Trump responded that he "doesn't care at all." Iran then warned that if US forces continued their operations, it would shift to a full-scale offensive, and had already used drones and missiles to attack US military targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The US military confirmed two soldiers dead and one missing. Facing escalating conflict, the US accelerated the deployment of additional fighter jets to the Middle East and warned Gulf states, while Iran declared that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had dropped to zero, and threatened to target Gulf facilities, including airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, the supply side saw persistently tight availability of spot cargoes, with inventories at lows for the year, maintaining an overall tight situation. On the demand side, the market was in the off-season for consumption, downstream procurement was sluggish, and overall performance was weak. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.

According to a report by Mining.com citing Bloomberg, NGEx Minerals has expanded the high-grade Jupiter zone at its Lunahuasi copper-gold-silver project in northern Argentina, while the Saturn zone has also expanded in scale. Drillhole DPDH077 in the Jupiter zone intersected 10 m at a depth of 89 m, grading 0.88% copper, 3.14 g/mt gold and 12.2 g/mt silver, including a 7.6 m interval grading 18.84% copper, 5.54 g/mt gold and 336.7 g/mt silver. Company CEO Wojtek Wodzicki said, "The results from hole DPDH077 show that the Jupiter zone cannot be overlooked; this zone was the first orebody intersected in the Lunahuasi discovery hole." Although the number of drillholes in Jupiter is less than in the Saturn and Mars targets, the mineralization intersected over an area of 400 m by 500 m at Jupiter indicates the potential of this main zone, Wodzicki added. Recent sample assay results once again demonstrate the strength of Lunahuasi as one of the highest-grade new copper-gold-silver discoveries in the world. Drilling is continuing to expand and connect zones to increase resource potential. The mineralization intersected at Jupiter demonstrates the significant potential of this zone, and it will be a priority target for the Phase 5 plan. The company has not specified when Phase 5 will begin. In the Saturn zone, drillhole DPDH069 intersected 13 m at a depth of 437 m, grading 1.07% copper, 1.31 g/mt gold and 37.6 g/mt silver. Hole DPDH072 intersected 34 m at a depth of 193 m, grading 1.43% copper, 1.8 g/mt gold and 40.2 g/mt silver, including a 6 m interval grading 3.75% copper, 4.82 g/mt gold and 93.1 g/mt silver. This intersection may indicate the presence of a new zone to the east of Saturn, NGEx said. Saturn may be a large, structurally controlled disseminated and stockwork orebody cut by high- to extremely high-grade veins. These results are from the Phase 4 drilling program of the Lunahuasi project, comprising 32 drillholes for a total of 27,318 m. Lunahuasi is located approximately 1,300 km northwest of Buenos Aires.