June 8, 2026 Increased mine production, rising recycling, but declining overall demand—at first glance, not a typical environment for new price records. Nevertheless, the experts at Metals Focus forecast an average gold price of $4,920 per ounce for 2026, representing a 43 percent increase from the previous year. This apparent contradiction stems from a profound structural shift in the gold market that has far-reaching implications for the industry. Bullion and coins overtake gold jewelry for the first time The most significant change is taking place on the demand side: In 2026, physical investments in bullion and coins are expected to replace gold jewelry as the largest source of demand for the first time. This trend was already emerging in 2025, when physical investment demand climbed 16 percent to a twelve-year high—driven primarily by growth in China (up 28 percent) and India (up 17 percent). At the same time, global jewelry production plummeted by 19 percent to a five-year low of 1,646 tons. For 2026, Metals Focus anticipates a further decline of 11 percent. The historically high price level is forcing consumers and manufacturers to opt for lighter pieces, lower karat grades, or more affordable alternatives such as gold-filled materials. Consequently, gold is not disappearing from demand but is shifting its primary function from a consumer good to a pure investment product. Unlike jewelry purchases, this investment demand is far less price-sensitive and is primarily driven by motives such as asset protection, diversification, and hedging against currency risks and uncertainties. Lower overall demand—but a higher gold price Although overall demand is expected to decline in 2026 due in part to a slowdown in the jewelry sector, the high quality of buyers supports the projected price surge. Simply looking at total tonnage falls short in the current environment. As early as 2025, gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs) recorded their highest annual inflows since 2020, at 803 tons. The driving forces behind this were tariffs, growing U.S. government debt, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy independence, and geopolitical tensions. These factors will persist in 2026 and will be exacerbated by high stock market valuations and uncertainties regarding the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar. The precious metal is thus assuming an increasingly strategic role in investment portfolios. Central banks are buying less—but still at unusually high levels This strategic importance is also reflected in the behavior of central banks. Although net purchases fell by 22 percent to 848 tons in 2025, after having exceeded the 1,000-ton mark for three consecutive years, geographically broad-based demand remains well above pre-2022 levels. Sales were limited to a few countries and served primarily to rebalance portfolios following the recent gold rally. Despite headwinds such as the ongoing energy crisis, Metals Focus expects historically high net purchases in 2026 as well. While the pace of buying is slowing, the trend toward greater diversification of official reserves remains intact. Gold mines are producing more—but supply is slow to respond On the supply side, global mine production reached a new record of 3,817 tons (up 2 percent) in 2025. Growth was driven by new mines, expansions, and higher contributions from small-scale mining. A further increase of 2.4 percent to 3,907 tons is forecast for 2026, with all regions except Oceania and Europe expected to grow. Given the enormous price surge, this supply growth is nevertheless moderate and underscores that even strong price signals in the mining industry do not immediately lead to massive jumps in production. Compounding the issue is the fact that producers are grappling with significant cost increases: Global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose by 12 percent to $1,552 per ounce in 2025 due to inflation and taxes. For junior companies, this means that while a higher gold price improves the profitability of projects, factors such as grade, location, and infrastructure are increasingly decisive for success in light of cost trends. Why even record prices are barely triggering a recycling wave The supply of recycled gold is also responding sluggishly. In 2025, the volume rose by only 2.8 percent to 1,404 tons—a 13-year high that is, however, subdued relative to price trends. A 5.1 percent increase is forecast for 2026. This apparent contradiction can be explained by owners’ strong desire for security: precisely because of prevailing uncertainties, scrap gold is being sold less frequently. Paradoxically, the very factor driving prices is simultaneously limiting the additional supply that would normally cool the market. The Iran War Delays the Next Uptrend Short-term volatility remains a factor, however. Following new record highs at the start of 2026, a previously overbought market combined with shifting U.S. interest rate expectations led to a correction. The war in Iran is further fueling inflation, which limits the scope for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and drives up bond yields. In the short term, this is a headwind for gold, although geopolitical conflicts usually support the metal. Metals Focus, however, expects the rally to return once the situation calms down. The underlying premise: Policymakers are likely to tolerate slightly higher inflation rather than jeopardize economic growth through overly restrictive monetary policy. Conclusion: In 2026, it’s no longer just volume that counts in the gold market The market environment for 2026 is more complex than a purely quantitative analysis of supply and demand would suggest. The buyer structure is changing, strategic players are acting less price-sensitive, and structural drivers such as global debt and geopolitical risks remain. At the same time, supply from mines and recycling is growing only slowly. What is decisive, therefore, is not so much the absolute tonnage of total demand, but rather the fact that gold is undergoing a permanent shift from a consumer good to a strategic investment and reserve asset. The projected average price of $4,920 thus does not reflect mere exaggeration, but rather is an expression of a new, more resilient market structure. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-in-2026-new-market-structure-paves-the-way-for-a-rise-to-usd4-920

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is pleased to announce that an SMM-led delegation, headed by SMM Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager Jenny Wu and made up of delegates from the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2026 , paid a formal visit to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) on June 4. The event was organized by SMM and co-organized by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Economic Council, Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), and MMR, with the Jakarta Futures Exchange as the strategic partner. This visit underscores SMM’s commitment to fostering long-term, win-win partnerships between Indonesia’s top mineral exporters and worldwide metal industry stakeholders. During the exchange meeting, AETI representatives gave a detailed introduction to the association’s development background and the overall production and operational status of some local tin enterprises in Indonesia. In the Q&A session, the two sides had in-depth discussions on key industry topics such as the progress of Indonesian tin ore mining quota approvals and certain current industry-related policies, sharing market information and exchanging industry perspectives. This face-to-face exchange further strengthened ties between industry partners in and outside China, laying a solid foundation for future cross-regional cooperation and information sharing along the tin industry chain. Introduction to the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters (AETI) Profile The AETI was established on May 9, 2014, and became a member of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) on March 14, 2015. Objectives: Creating productive collaboration between the government, entrepreneurs, and stakeholders Increasing the added value of Indonesian Tin Encouraging the implementation of Good Mining Practices in the tin mining industry Board of AETI Management AETI Members Currently, AETI has 23 member companies of tin exporters spread across the islands of Bangka, Belitung, and Riau AETI Mandate/Functions Advocating for policies that support the national tin industry Maintaining the stability and sustainability of the tin export market Ensuring member compliance with environmental and trading regulations Serving as a forum of communication between tin exporters and the government AETI Internal Activities Training & Development AETI Member Meeting TinSeller–BuyerMeeting Others: Reclamation, Charity, Conference, etc. As a demonstration of AETI's commitment to the environment, we have launched a reclamation program targeting 500 hectares of abandoned post mining land in Bangka Belitung. AETI also runs regular social programs for the community in Bangka Belitung Indonesia Tin Update AETI forecasts that the total national tin production quota in the 2026 Mining Work Plan (RKAB) will be approximately 50,000 tons. This figure has been adjusted from around 53,000 tons in 2025 to stabilize global tin prices. Currently, ten enterprises have obtained RKAB approvals. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is implementing a more selective evaluation and adjustment of the RKAB. The Indonesian government has introduced these policies to secure future energy reserves while simultaneously controling the structure of tin trade to prevent illegal mining practices. Dynamics of Indonesian Tin Industry Regulatory Policies The dynamics of tin regulation in Indonesia over past years have undergone a massive paradigm shift. Driven by ensuring the sustainability and improving the governance of natural resources, optimizing state revenue and promoting downstream industrialization. 1. The validity period of the RKAB has been restored to one year (previously a three-year system). The policy aims to strengthen the government’s supervision of annual production, close loopholes in illegal mining, and adjust quotas in real time based on global market demand. Legal basis: an Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) ministerial regulation, now officially implemented. Currently, smelters must reapply annually, and the approval process is becoming stricter. While this measure reduces the predictability of multi-year supply, it has effectively curbed speculative over-application of production quotas. 2. Downstream development policy (Hilirisasi) This drives Indonesia’s transformation from an exporter of raw materials and refined ingots into a producer of high-value-added finished products, retaining profits domestically. The policy is a key pillar of the current government’s national development philosophy and falls under the President’s eight core governance goals (Asta Cita). Indonesia has streamlined regulatory rules for the export of industrial tin products, covering raw material procurement and product technical standards, thereby promoting the domestic production and export of high-end tin products such as tin solder, tin chemicals, tin powder, and tin plate. 3. Designating tin as a critical strategic mineral Tin has been elevated to a strategic status concerning national resilience and security, ensuring long-term domestic supply for key industries such as EVs and electronics. Legal basis: the Presidential Regulation on the Governance of Critical and Strategic Minerals, currently under development. With tin classified as a critical strategic mineral, mining supervision becomes stricter, and the central government gains the highest authority over production control. This has accelerated the downstreamization of Indonesia’s tin industry and, together with tightening global supply, has at times driven a significant rise in tin prices. 4. Establishing a benchmark price for tin ore This creates a fair, standardized price floor for domestic tin ore transactions in Indonesia, ensuring optimal state revenue (royalties) while securing reasonable income for local miners/partners. Legal basis: an ESDM ministerial regulation, under development. The policy can eliminate low-ball pricing and malicious push for lower prices among local miners, partners, and smelters. Domestic ore transaction prices are set with reference to public international benchmarks such as the London Metal Exchange, the Indonesia Commodity Exchange, and the Jakarta Futures Exchange, and are adjusted based on local actual costs. 5. Single export gateway policy for strategic commodities Strategic commodities must go through a designated unified gateway/trading platform for centralized export business, enabling whole-process compliance supervision, traceable flows, and ensuring full payment of taxes and royalties. Legal basis: joint regulations formulated by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Trade, currently under development. Export business is handled exclusively through the state-designated institution — Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia — which may weaken the role of domestic private enterprises in the export process.

Peru will hold its presidential runoff on June 7, drawing close attention from the mining industry. As the world's second-largest copper producer, any shift in mining policy could have significant implications for global copper supply. Investors are watching proposals related to environmental regulations and resource taxation. The election outcome may influence future copper project development and investment decisions.

After several months of technical issues and operational adjustments, the Ambatovy mining project in Madagascar has announced the gradual resumption of its nickel and cobalt production in Toamasina. As one of the largest foreign investments in the country, the project plays a significant role in the national economy. Its mining operations in the Moramanga region and processing activities in Toamasina make substantial contributions to exports and government revenues. The restart comes amid a gradual recovery in global demand for strategic metals such as nickel and cobalt, particularly driven by growing demand from the electric vehicle battery and energy storage sectors, creating new opportunities for Madagascar’s mining industry.

Zimbabwe announces 14 minerals including lithium and nickel as 'critical minerals,' mandating state ownership – otherwise mining is not allowed. Chinese executive: mainly targets new mining projects, limited impact on existing ones.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,653/mt, swung wildly in early trading to probe a high of $13,666/mt. The copper price center then fluctuated downward to touch a low of $13,512.5/mt, before swinging wildly again near the end of the session to finally close at $13,516/mt, down 0.69%, with trading volume at 23,700 lots and open interest at 270,300 lots, an increase of 1,898 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,470 yuan/mt, swung wildly in early trading to touch a high of 104,670 yuan/mt. The copper price center then dropped sharply to probe a low of 103,800 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 104,010 yuan/mt, down 0.9%, with trading volume at 43,400 lots and open interest at 180,500 lots, a decrease of 942 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.