Global Infrastructure Partners, part of BlackRock, has agreed to acquire a majority and controlling stake in US commercial solar company Summit Ridge Energy. Founded in 2017, Summit Ridge develops, owns and operates commercial solar and energy storage projects across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and New England, with a portfolio of more than 3GW of operating and development-stage assets. GIP said the investment will help Summit Ridge expand its solar and battery storage pipeline and strengthen project acquisition capabilities.

Overseas rare earth markets diverged this week between light and heavy types. Driven by the uptrend in China, terbium oxide and terbium metal prices rose, while light rare earths remained stable. Trading-wise, heavy rare earths saw few transactions due to export controls. On the industrial front, U.S. companies accelerated domestic recycling and purification, while European and Japanese firms advanced R&D on magnetic material recycling and rare-earth-free alternative technologies. Meanwhile, Indo-Pacific and South Korean players actively restructured supply chains, and resource development and processing projects were intensively launched in locations such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Brazil. The global “de-risking” layout for rare earths continued to deepen.

The overseas spot primary aluminum market faced overall downward pressure this week, with premiums falling across all regions. Driven by multiple factors including the traditional overseas consumption off-season, fading concerns over tight global aluminum supply, weak end-user spot demand, and pressure from trade arbitrage, spot aluminum quotations in major overseas regions kept sliding amid muted trading activity. In terms of pricing performance, premiums in core overseas markets generally declined week-on-week compared with last Friday, July 3. The US Midwest DDP primary aluminum premium edged down from 110.25 US cents per pound to 109.75 US cents per pound, remaining under bearish pressure. Asian markets trended lower in tandem: CIF Thailand P1020A dropped from USD 345/MT to USD 335/MT; FCA Korea P1020A fell from USD 366/MT to USD 335/MT; CIF Korea P1020A retreated from USD 350/MT to USD 319/MT; Japan MJP ingot spot premiums plunged sharply from USD 380/MT to USD 355/MT. Spot premiums across Asian overseas aluminum markets cooled off markedly. Regional Breakdown The Japanese spot market stayed broadly weak, with end manufacturers only restocking for immediate operational needs without bulk pre-purchases. As market expectations of tight global aluminum supply continued to ease, buyers became increasingly reluctant to accept higher offers. Meanwhile, arbitrage trades emerged during the week: traders accumulated spot cargoes at low prices and captured spreads against long-term contracts, further weighing down spot transaction prices and dragging Japan’s spot rates lower. The US market also faced headwinds amid its traditional consumption off-season and feeble downstream end-user demand. With overseas primary aluminum restarts and new capacity set to ramp up in the second half of the year, expectations of looser supply gained traction. Downstream buyers remained cautious with purchasing, accepting lower prices and pushing regional premiums downwards. South Korea and Thailand saw synchronized softening in market conditions with subdued buying sentiment and consistent cuts to market offers. Traders are eager to liquidate inventories, yet downstream purchasers slow down procurement with minimal buying interest. Lopsided bargaining power pushed offer prices steadily lower, exerting continuous downward pressure on regional premiums. Outlook Overall, overseas aluminum markets are stuck in the seasonal consumption off-season, alongside growing expectations of ample global aluminum supply. Lacking solid support from physical demand and robust buying interest, overseas spot primary aluminum premiums are likely to maintain weak volatile momentum in the short run, with further downside risks lingering.

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices Stabilize and Rebound Synchronously; China Destocking Solidifies Price Bottom Support] Amid intertwined bullish and bearish factors, overseas bullishness from the US dollar and bearishness from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After an earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum’s downward momentum has slowed, and it will mainly consolidate at lows for repair in the short term. Supported by rapid destocking, China’s aluminum price is unlikely to underperform LME aluminum. The SHFE and LME markets may see slight divergence, making a unilaterally weak trend difficult to sustain.

SMM, July 7: In the first half of 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East emerged as one of the decisive factors affecting electrolytic aluminum prices. Prior to the Middle East events, expectations of a US dollar rate-cut cycle were bullish for non-ferrous metal prices, and overseas electrolytic aluminum prices generally maintained a firm trend in January. However, high aluminum prices suppressed demand, compounded by the impact of the domestic Spring Festival holiday, leading to larger-than-expected domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. In February, domestic and overseas aluminum prices fell in tandem. On February 28, the US-Israel coalition launched a military strike against Iran, officially marking the beginning of the Middle East geopolitical conflict's impact on aluminum prices. Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Triggers Production Cuts; Supply Gap Expectations Drive Up LME Aluminum Prices Affected by the US-Iran conflict, some aluminum smelters in the Middle East experienced production cuts. Combined with the Mozambique aluminum smelter entering shutdown in March, the market expected overseas electrolytic aluminum fundamentals to face a significant supply gap. Boosted by this, overseas aluminum prices continued to climb, with the LME 3M aluminum price reaching a near three-year high of $3,787.5/tonne on June 2. The timeline of production cuts at Middle East and Mozambique aluminum smelters is as follows. In addition, power and other infrastructure in Iran was damaged, making it difficult for local aluminum smelters to sustain production. However, with no official announcements yet, SMM has made its own production cut assessment. As of mid-April, SMM estimated that the total capacity affected by production cuts in the Middle East and Mozambique could reach approximately 3.5–4.0 million tonnes. Under the impact of significant production cuts, overseas electrolytic aluminum fundamentals shifted to a deficit, with total LME aluminum ingot inventory and Japanese port aluminum ingot inventory continuing to decline. As of end-June 2026, LME global aluminum ingot inventory stood at 302,000 tonnes, down 207,000 tonnes from end-2025. As of end-May, Japanese major port electrolytic aluminum inventory was 239,000 tonnes, down 78,000 tonnes from end-2025. Amid expectations of supply tightening, ex-China aluminum premiums strengthened. As of end-June, SMM Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premium recorded $380/mt, up 123.5% from the end of last year, and SMM Japan Q3 MJP aluminum ingot premium recorded $395/mt, up $309/mt from Q4 2025, a jump of 359.3%. SMM Europe P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid price recorded $547.5/mt, up 62.2% from the end of last year, while SMM Europe P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid price recorded $470/mt, up 64.9% YoY. SMM US Midwest DDP aluminum premium recorded 110.5¢/lb, equivalent to around $2,435/mt, up 18.2% from the start of the year, an absolute increase of approximately $374.7/mt. Although supply tightened and aluminum ingot destocking took place, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was subdued by high prices, with actual transactions in Asia persistently at a discount to the Japan MJP aluminum ingot premium. Indonesia saw a concentration of new project startups; as new projects continued to ramp up production, supply increased, and since Q2, Indonesia aluminum ingot FOB prices showed a trend of pulling back slightly. As of end-June, SMM FOB Indonesia P0610A average price recorded $270/mt, up 92.9% from the end of last year, but down 8.8% from this year's high of $296/mt. SMM FOB Indonesia P1020A average price recorded $266/mt, up 97.0% YoY, but down 8.6% from this year's high of $291/mt. Aluminum premiums in other regions maintained an overall uptrend. As of end-June, SMM CIF South Korea P1020A average price recorded $342/mt, up 132.7% from the end of last year; SMM FCA South Korea P1020A average price recorded $362/mt, up 119.4% YoY; and SMM CIF Thailand P1020A average price recorded $328/mt, up 120.9% YoY. High Profits Accelerate Electrolytic Aluminum Restarts and New Project Commissioning Under high aluminum prices, electrolytic aluminum companies enjoyed substantial profits. These high profits stimulated some idled capacity to accelerate restarts and also catalyzed more new electrolytic aluminum projects, accelerating their commissioning. In the first half of the year, three electrolytic aluminum smelters resumed idled capacity to varying degrees, and two additional smelters announced plans to restart production in 2026. Details are as follows: San Ciprián smelter in Spain safely completed restart on April 8, with total capacity of approximately 230,000 tonnes/year, representing an increase of approximately 150,000–200,000 tonnes/year compared to 2025 operating capacity. Mount Holly in the United States began restart in April, with plans to reach full capacity by end-June, involving 50,000 tonnes/year of capacity. Grundartangi smelter in Iceland began restart in April, expected to complete restart by end-July, involving 210,000 tonnes/year of capacity. Magnitude 7 Metals planned to restart potline No. 1 cells at its New Madrid aluminum smelter in the United States, with plans to add 75,000 tonnes/year of primary aluminum capacity by end-2026. Norsk Hydro indicated that the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia planned to restart partial primary aluminum production in Q4 2026, involving 75,000 tonnes/year of capacity. Regarding new projects, according to SMM estimates, total planned commissioning capacity for overseas electrolytic aluminum in 2026 is approximately 2.3 million tonnes, of which approximately 700,000 tonnes have been commissioned, with the remaining 1.6 million tonnes expected to be commissioned in the second half of 2026. For details, please follow the "SMM Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Project Monthly Review" series. Overall, although the Middle East and Mozambique experienced large-scale production cuts in the first half of the year, the acceleration of restarts and new project commissioning partially offset the supply reduction. According to SMM estimates, total overseas electrolytic aluminum production in H1 2026 was 14.397 million tonnes, down 4.1% year-on-year, and total overseas demand was 13.612 million tonnes, down 3.1% year-on-year. Since overseas electrolytic aluminum had a net inflow of approximately 1.234 million tonnes into the domestic market in H1, the overseas electrolytic aluminum deficit in H1 is estimated at approximately 450,000 tonnes. H2 Outlook: Middle East Restarts Combined with New Project Ramp-up Increase Supply, Putting Pressure on Aluminum Prices In June–July, the Middle East geopolitical situation showed no clear signals of further deterioration, and news of restarts emerged from Middle East aluminum smelters that had undergone production cuts. On July 2, EGA announced that its Al Taweelah plant had made progress in restart efforts: anode removal work for all electrolytic cells had been completed; cell cleaning was approximately 90% complete; and over 20% of solidified aluminum blocks inside cells had been cleared. On May 26, the first electrolytic cell was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 cells were in operation (out of a total of 1,262 cells), equivalent to approximately 110,000 tonnes of capacity. In addition, Aluminum Bahrain and Qatalum were also expected to gradually begin restarts. With Middle East restarts combined with continued ramp-up of new projects, the global electrolytic aluminum balance is expected to shift toward a surplus by Q4 2026.

SMM, July 7: In H1 2026, the Middle East geopolitical conflict became one of the decisive factors affecting aluminum prices. Before the Middle East conflict, expectations of a US dollar interest rate cut cycle were bullish for non-ferrous metal prices. In January, aluminum outside China generally held up well. High aluminum prices suppressed demand, and combined with the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday in China, domestic aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeded expectations. In February, aluminum prices both in and outside China pulled back in tandem. On February 28, the US-Israeli coalition launched a joint military strike on Iran, officially kicking off the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on aluminum prices. The Middle East geopolitical conflict triggered production cuts in the Middle East, and expectations of a large supply deficit pushed up LME aluminum prices. Affected by the US-Iran conflict, some aluminum plants in the Middle East cut production, and combined with the Mozambique aluminum plant entering a shutdown in March, the market expected that the overseas aluminum market would face a large fundamental deficit. Boosted by this, overseas aluminum prices climbed continuously, with the LME 3M aluminum price reaching a near three-year high of $3,787.5/mt on June 2. The timeline of production cuts at Middle Eastern and Mozambique aluminum plants is as follows: In addition, Iran's domestic power and other infrastructure were damaged, and aluminum plant production is expected to be unsustainable. However, there is no clear announcement at present, and SMM has made an assessment of production cuts. As of mid-April, SMM estimated that the total capacity affected by production cuts in the Middle East and Mozambique could reach around 3.5-4 million mt. Under the impact of significant production cuts, the overseas aluminum market shifted to a deficit, with total LME aluminum ingot inventory and Japanese port aluminum ingot inventory declining continuously. As of the end of June 2026, LME global aluminum ingot inventory registered 302,000 mt, down 207,000 mt from the end of last year. As of end-May, primary aluminum inventory at major Japanese ports stood at 239,000 mt, destocking by 78,000 mt from the end of last year. Amid expectations of supply tightening, regional premiums for overseas aluminum strengthened. As of end-June, SMM Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premium registered $380/mt, up 123.5% from the end of last year; SMM Japan Q3 MJP aluminum ingot premium registered $395/mt, up $309/mt from Q4 2025, an increase of 359.3%. SMM Europe P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premium registered $547.5/mt, up 62.2% from the end of last year; SMM Europe P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premium registered $470/mt, up 64.9% from the end of last year. SMM US Midwest DDP aluminum premium registered 110.5¢/lb, equivalent to around $2,435/mt, up 18.2% from the start of the year, with an absolute increase of approximately $374.7/mt. Although supply tightened and aluminum ingot destocking occurred, high prices dampened downstream purchase enthusiasm, and actual transactions in Asia were continuously at a discount to the Japan QMJP aluminum ingot premium. New investments in Indonesia were concentrated, and as new projects continued to ramp up production, supply increased. From Q2, Indonesia aluminum ingot FOB prices showed a slight pullback trend. As of end-June, the average SMM FOB Indonesia P0610A price stood at $270/mt, up 92.9% from the end of last year but down 8.8% from this year’s high of $296/mt; the average SMM FOB Indonesia P1020A price stood at $266/mt, up 97.0% from the end of last year but down 8.6% from this year’s high of $291/mt. In other regions, aluminum premiums maintained an overall uptrend. As of end-June, the average SMM CIF South Korea P1020A price stood at $342/mt, up 132.7% from the end of last year; the average SMM FCA South Korea P1020A price stood at $362/mt, up 119.4% YoY; the average SMM CIF Thailand P1020A price stood at $328/mt, up 120.9% YoY. High Profits Accelerate Aluminum Production Resumptions and New Project Startups Under high aluminum prices, aluminum enterprises enjoyed considerable profits. These high profits stimulated some idled capacity to accelerate production resumptions and also gave rise to more new aluminum projects, speeding up their startup. In H1, three aluminum smelters restored idle capacity to varying degrees, while another two aluminum smelters announced plans to resume production in 2026. Details are as follows: Spain’s San Ciprián smelter safely completed its restart on April 8, with a total capacity of approximately 230,000 mt/year, representing an increase of about 150,000-200,000 mt/year compared to its 2025 operating capacity. Mount Holly in the US began production resumptions in April and plans to reach full capacity by end-June, involving 50,000 mt/year of capacity. Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter started resuming production in April and is expected to complete the process by end-July, involving 210,000 mt/year of capacity. Magnitude 7 Metals plans to restart potline 1 at the New Madrid aluminum smelter in the US, aiming to add 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. Norway’s Hydro stated that the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia plans to restart part of its primary aluminum production in Q4 2026, involving 75,000 mt/year of capacity. For new projects, according to SMM estimates, total planned new aluminum capacity outside China in 2026 is about 2.3 million mt, of which approximately 700,000 mt has already been commissioned, and the remaining 1.6 million mt is expected to be commissioned in H2 2026. More details can be followed in the “SMM Monthly Review of Aluminum Projects Outside China” series. In summary, although the Middle East and Mozambique experienced large-scale production cuts in H1, the acceleration of production resumptions and newly commissioned projects partly offset the supply reduction. According to SMM calculations, total aluminum production outside China in H1 2026 was 14.397 million mt, down 4.1% YoY, and total demand outside China was 13.612 million mt, down 3.1% YoY . As 1.234 million mt of aluminum from outside China is expected to have net inflows into China in H1, overall, the aluminum deficit outside China in H1 is estimated at around 450,000 mt . H2 Outlook: Production resumptions in the Middle East combined with the ramp-up of newly commissioned projects will increase supply and put pressure on aluminum prices. In June-July, as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East showed no clear signs of further deterioration, aluminum smelters in the region that had cut or suspended production began to report resumptions. On July 2, EGA announced progress in the resumption of operations at its Al Taweelah plant. The removal of anodes from all pots has been completed; pot shell cleaning is about 90% complete; and over 20% of the solidified aluminum blocks in the pots have been cleared. On May 26, the first pot was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 pots were in operation (out of a total of 1,262 pots), equivalent to a capacity of approximately 110,000 mt. In addition, Alba and Qatalum are also expected to gradually resume production. With production resumptions in the Middle East and the ongoing ramp-up of newly commissioned projects, the global aluminum balance is expected to shift to a surplus in Q4 2026. [Data Source Statement: All data beyond publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)