[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Overtly Stable but Softened in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39.5-47.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index stood at 43.64 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 40-43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, with reports of some transactions concluded at low prices. Bearish sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises persisted, and prices were expected to remain weak.

Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

SMM News, March 20: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.23, up 0.07 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged sharply. Coupled with downstream processing enterprises' procurement and stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend market closure, overall buying sentiment in the central China market was high, with strong bullish sentiment. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and there was no downward trend in market quotations. However, the pass-through of prices to downstream enterprises resulted in relatively limited premiums. Ultimately, the overall quotation range in the central China market was concentrated at central China prices plus 10 yuan to plus 60 yuan, while actual mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at central China prices plus 30 yuan to plus 40 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.51, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions fell by 3,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. At the start of the week, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in possible rate hikes, weakening expectations for macro liquidity and putting copper prices under pressure, causing them to pull back. Mid-week, after the US Fed kept rates unchanged, the US PPI annual rate rose more than expected to 3.4, further weighing on market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. According to market sources, traders no longer priced in any US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on easing expectations faded further. The continued escalation in US-Iran tensions fueled safe-haven sentiment, while elevated oil prices intensified concerns over inflation and economic weakness. The stronger US dollar index also suppressed copper prices. In terms of fund positioning, the futures were mainly marked by long liquidation, with risk-off sentiment among funds rising and willingness to take profits at high levels increasing. Overall, macro headwinds dominated market sentiment, and copper prices came under pressure and corrected lower. Fundamentals side, copper concentrates TC continued to pull back. This week, the imported copper concentrates index was reported at -$67.32/mt, further lower WoW and at a historical low, with smelting pressure continuing to mount. In copper cathode, the continued downward shift in the center of copper prices significantly stimulated restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and spot inventory showed a rapid destocking trend. The import window remained open, but actual subsequent inflows of imported cargo still need further observation. According to SMM, orders at most downstream enterprises surged, with generally strong enthusiasm for buying the dip. Some sectors were notably boosted by the pullback in copper prices, and order performance improved. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic remains unchanged. Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, intertwined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will continue to weigh on copper prices. However, fundamental support for copper prices is gradually strengthening. Faster destocking and stronger downstream restocking willingness will limit downside room, and copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,700/mt and $12,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 91,000 yuan/mt and 97,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, as downstream restocking continues and inventory is drawn down, spot premiums are expected to continue to recover, but inflows of imported cargo and suppliers selling on strength will cap upside room. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

[US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, SHFE and LME Centers Continued to Move Lower This Week] At the beginning of the week, the market was heavily affected by geopolitical disruptions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend; subsequently, from a fundamental perspective, inventories outside China accumulated sharply, compounded by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled significantly, putting LME zinc under pressure and driving it lower......

As of Thursday this week, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price edged down slightly WoW. Demand side, trading sentiment was weak in mid-month, and some producers made inquiries recently, but as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of high-priced nickel salt was weak; supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesia's recent MHP supply, MHP payables moved higher, driving up raw material costs for some producers and correspondingly lifting their quotes. Looking ahead, with the month-end procurement period approaching, attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory, this week upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 4.7 days, downstream precursor plant inventory index fell from 7.1 days to 6.8 days, and integrated enterprises' inventory index held at 6.8 days; in terms of buyer-seller strength, this week the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor held at 1.8, the downstream precursor plants' procurement sentiment factor fell from 2.7 to 2.6, and integrated enterprises' sentiment factor held at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)