SMM May 20 report: According to customs data, nickel ore imports in March 2025 reached 2.9441 million mt, up 1.3788 million mt MoM, representing an increase of 89.81%, and down 28,000 mt YoY, a decrease of 0.95%. Among them, imports of laterite nickel ore amounted to 2.674 million mt, while imports of nickel sulphide ore reached 43,300 mt. In March, 2.4917 million mt of laterite nickel ore were imported from the Philippines, accounting for 85.5% of the total imports for the month. The cumulative imports for 2025 currently stand at 6.5073 million mt, down 3.35% compared to the same period last year.

【Minutes of Morning Meeting on April 30】Affected by the production cuts in Indonesia's MHP and high-grade nickel matte projects, the supply of raw materials is tight, driving the MHP coefficient to continue fluctuating at highs, with insufficient downward momentum. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have limited quantities available for external sale in the remaining days of May, hence their quotations remain firm. Some nickel salt smelters have expectations for production cuts due to incomplete raw material stocking.

【Minutes of Morning Meeting on April 29】Indonesia's local ore premiums remained stable. The cost line of smelters was generally stable with slight rise, while the decline in spot prices had already broken through the cost line of some smelters. Production drivers and domestic demand weakened simultaneously, with overall production remaining stable. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices were at a low level in recent years, and the immediate raw material costs were high, leading to an inverted situation. In the short term, downstream stainless steel mills had weak demand for raw material procurement, and the center of market transactions continued to move downward. It is expected that high-grade NPI prices will remain under pressure in the short term.

【Summary of Morning Meeting on April 24】Last week, nickel prices continued the volatile pattern seen since mid-April. The average price of SMM1# refined nickel last week was 126,850 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.5% WoW. LME nickel futures prices fluctuated rangebound around $15,600-15,800/mt. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in June increased, putting pressure on LME nickel prices denominated in US dollars. Risk-averse sentiment among investors was pronounced, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market intensified.

Indonesian ore used for pyrometallurgy remained stable with a slight upward trend, while the price of ore used for hydrometallurgy may experience a downward adjustment.

【4.25 Morning Meeting Minutes】Indonesia's local ore premiums remained stable, smelter cost lines were generally stable with a slight rise, while spot prices have fallen below the cost lines of some smelters, leading to a simultaneous weakening in production drivers and domestic trade, with overall production remaining stable. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices are at low levels in recent years, and the immediate raw material costs have already shown an inversion.