Global Aluminum Market Review – April: Divergent Domestic & Overseas Trends and Marked Spot Structure Disparities The global aluminum market in April featured a core pattern of strength overseas and weakness domestically with diverging trends. The main Shanghai aluminum contract retreated from highs amid fluctuations, while LME aluminum maintained firm momentum supported by low inventories and geopolitical factors, with both markets seeing mild corrections toward month-end. Market drivers this month centered on macro policies, geopolitical conflicts, supply-demand fundamentals and inventory structures, with movements of key indicators further highlighting supply-demand imbalances between domestic and overseas aluminum markets. I. April Aluminum Price Review: Linked Movements with Distinct Strength Differentials Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum shared similar price rhythms in April, both fluctuating higher initially before retreating. However, notable gaps emerged in upward momentum and correction ranges, with overseas aluminum prices significantly outperforming domestic counterparts. The average Shanghai-LME aluminum ratio dropped from 7.36 in March to 7.03 in April, reflecting stronger overseas aluminum pricing relative to Shanghai aluminum. The main Shanghai aluminum contract trended upward early in the month before softening overall, declining from elevated levels through range-bound trading. It opened lower at RMB 24,715 per ton at the start of the month and consolidated. Driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising LME aluminum prices, it surged to a monthly peak of RMB 25,675 per ton in mid-April. In late April, amid continuous domestic inventory accumulation, weaker-than-expected downstream demand, and risk-averse capital outflows ahead of the May Day holiday, prices corrected steadily. Closing at RMB 24,430 per ton on April 30, the contract recorded a monthly trading range of nearly RMB 1,360 per ton. LME March aluminum traded firmly with mild late-month declines. Opening at USD 3,459 per ton, it climbed to a monthly high of USD 3,672 per ton in mid-April, underpinned by overseas supply disruptions from geopolitical frictions and sustained inventory destocking. Prices edged down later due to fluctuating US-Iran negotiations, hawkish macro sentiment and profit-taking at high levels, settling at USD 3,476 per ton at month-end with a slight monthly loss. Overall, LME aluminum vastly outperformed domestic Shanghai aluminum. In terms of price drivers, geopolitics served as a shared upward catalyst for global aluminum prices, with production cuts and supply disruptions in the Middle East continuously boosting market risk aversion. Price divergence stemmed from dual disparities in macro policies and fundamentals: elevated domestic inventories and sluggish demand consistently capped aluminum price rebounds, while tight overseas inventories and strained spot supplies provided robust support for LME aluminum. II. Key Inventory Indicators: Divergent Inventory Movements and Contrasting Supply-Demand Landscapes As a core gauge of aluminum market supply and demand, domestic and overseas inventory trends diverged sharply in April, directly shaping the relative strength of regional aluminum prices. Domestic aluminum inventories kept rising and stood at a multi-year seasonal high. Social inventories maintained an upward trend throughout April, hitting 1.465 million tons in mid-month, the highest seasonal level in five years. A clear imbalance emerged between rigid supply release and lackluster downstream demand during the traditional peak "Silver April" period, leading to persistent spot market loosening. SHFE warehouse stocks expanded from 420,000 tons at the start of the month to 450,000 tons at month-end. Elevated warehouse stock levels further confirmed ample domestic spot supply, weighing continuously on aluminum prices. Overseas LME aluminum inventories declined steadily to a 20-year low. Total LME aluminum inventories fell from 410,000 tons to 370,000 tons in April, extending months of destocking to historic lows. Noticeable structural divergence persisted in inventory composition: Russian aluminum accounted for approximately 92% of total LME stocks in March, resulting in low market-circulating inventories and increasingly tight physical spot supply, which acted as the fundamental pillar for strong LME aluminum prices. In summary, April’s global aluminum market was governed by contrasting core dynamics: low overseas inventories, geopolitical disruptions and hawkish Federal Reserve policies on the overseas front, versus high domestic inventories, weak real demand and stable growth expectations domestically. This drove pronounced market divergence. Affected by intertwined internal and external factors, the main Shanghai aluminum contract corrected downwards from highs, while LME aluminum remained in a firm trading range, backed by historically low inventories, a tight spot balance and geopolitical risk premiums.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Dual Support from Costs and Stockpiling — Magnesium Ingot Prices Stopped Falling and Stabilized This Week] This week, China's magnesium industry chain overall showed a stable-to-firm trend, moving sideways. Raw material dolomite relied on supply from neighboring provinces due to production halts in major producing areas, while downstream primary magnesium smelting operating rates rose to form rigid demand support. Combined with high transportation costs, prices remained stable overall with delivery-to-factory prices consolidating at highs. The Chinese market for magnesium ingots consolidated at lows and stabilized, benefiting from pre-holiday restocking that drove transaction recovery and enterprise sentiment to hold prices firm amid rising smelting costs. The export market remained sluggish as ex-China clients chased lower prices and new orders were weak. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy markets operated steadily in tandem — the former maintained production based on demand supported by stable domestic and export orders and sufficient raw material inventory, while the latter moved in line with magnesium ingot prices, with processing fees remaining firm and benefiting long-term from demand support driven by tightening regulatory standards for two-wheeled electric vehicles under the new national standard. The overall industry chain supply-demand pattern showed localized divergence but remained generally stable.

[Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Continued, SHFE and LME Prices Fluctuated Upward] At the beginning of the week, boosted by optimistic sentiment over the easing of earlier geopolitical tensions, LME zinc edged up. Subsequently, as expectations for U.S.-Iran peace talks wavered and the Strait of Hormuz faced renewed restrictions, market concerns intensified, and LME zinc struggled to rise and continued to pull back.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Pulled Back on Weakness, Export Prices Rose Against the Trend on Policy Impact] The magnesium market was overall in the doldrums this week. Magnesium ingot quotes in major producing areas fell 350 yuan/mt WoW to 17,000-17,150 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and panic selling accelerated the price decline, with the market entering a phase of rational pullback. Export side, affected by tightened customs supervision on non-compliant exports and dual-use items, FOB quotes rose against the trend by $50/mt on Thursday to $2,500-2,600/mt, with domestic and overseas market trends clearly diverging. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices pulled back along with raw materials, while processing fees remained stable, and the market overall showed strong supply and weak demand. Magnesium prices are expected to see gradually narrowing declines in the short term, with subsequent attention needed on changes in export policies and downstream purchase willingness.

[Macro Sentiment Pulled Back and Forth, SHFE and LME Centers Moved Higher] LME zinc was closed at the beginning of the week due to the Easter holiday. After the holiday, it briefly continued the fluctuating trend from the previous week. Then, as tensions in the Middle East eased, macro sentiment improved somewhat, and LME zinc saw some rise. However, the market still carried a certain wait-and-see sentiment, and prices pulled back somewhat......

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Fear of High Prices Dominates Demand Side, Magnesium Ingots Show Signs of Weakness After Consolidating at Highs] This week, various segments of China's magnesium industry chain diverged in performance, each exhibiting distinct supply-demand patterns. The dolomite market remained stable, with some areas in core production regions halting production, supplemented by supplies from surrounding sources. Downstream primary magnesium smelters saw a slight rise in operating rates and restocked on rigid demand, providing solid demand support, with short-term trends expected to remain stable. Magnesium ingots in major production areas showed signs of weakness after consolidating at highs. Slight inventory buildup at producers weakened the sentiment to hold back from selling, while downstream fear of high prices was strong and orders were scarce, shifting the supply-demand pattern toward buyers. The FOB market for magnesium ingots at Tianjin Port saw weak transactions, with producers' sentiment to hold prices firm cooling down. Short-term quotes may edge lower but are expected to stabilize overall. Magnesium powder prices remained firm, with producers raising operating rates to ensure supply. Both domestic and export demand recovered, and enterprise stockpiling behavior may front-load subsequent demand. Magnesium alloys consolidated at highs, with producers maintaining stable operating rates though some had elevated inventory levels. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid restocking demand, and end-user order release exhibited structural divergence, with short-term prices expected to hold steady.