During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, China’s manganese tetroxide market maintained a weak tone, characterized by sluggish trading, stable prices, and stalemated supply and demand. On the cost side, electrolytic manganese prices bottomed out at low levels with limited upward momentum. On the demand side, lithium manganate producers had completed pre-holiday restocking and focused on inventory digestion.

During the Chinese New Year holiday in 2026, the SiMn market operated steadily overall, with spot prices maintaining sideways movement. The fluctuation range in the operating rate of alloy plants was relatively small, and the market as a whole exhibited a "supply-demand weak balance with prominent cost support" pattern.

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the electrolytic manganese market stabilized at the bottom with sluggish transactions. Before the holiday, the market’s downward momentum slowed after a cumulative 600 yuan/ton drop, with mainstream prices approaching the 17,000 yuan/ton mark, supported by steel mills’ final pre-holiday stockpiling. During the holiday, prices remained stable at around 17,300 yuan/ton with almost no transactions.

[SMM Analysis: Overseas Steel Mills Show Low Acceptance of High-Priced EMM, EMM Exports Continue to Decline in January-February] According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that China's exports of unwrought manganese; scrap; and powder in January 2025 were 23,851 mt, down 15.66% MoM and 44.79% YoY. Exports of wrought manganese and manganese products were 5,903 mt, up 113.91% MoM and down 6.11% YoY. The total exports of EMM and manganese products in January 2025 were 29,800 mt, down 4.14% MoM. In February 2025, China's exports of unwrought manganese; scrap; and powder were 19,316 mt, down 19.01% MoM and 19.44% YoY. Exports of wrought manganese and manganese products were 1,191 mt, up 79.82% MoM and 26.30% YoY. The total exports of EMM and manganese products in February 2025 were 20,500 mt, down 31.08% MoM. The main reasons for the continuous decline in exports in January-February were: many overseas steel mills conducted equipment maintenance during January-February, leading to weak demand for EMM. Additionally, before and after the Chinese New Year, EMM exporters quoted at a relatively high level, and downstream overseas steel mills were cautious in purchasing, showing low acceptance of high-priced EMM. Therefore, the total exports of EMM and manganese products continued to decline in January-February.

[SMM Analysis: Review of the EMM Market in 2024 and Outlook for 2025] I. Price Aspect: Quarterly Price Review: 2024 Q1: Supply side, some EMM plants resumed production after the Chinese New Year, and combined with the previous inventory buildup on the supply side, EMM supply remained at a relatively high level. Demand side, steel mills resumed production at a slow pace after the Chinese New Year, with purchasing sentiment remaining stable and spot transactions relatively steady. Overall, supply and demand showed a surplus, putting downward pressure on manganese prices. 2024 Q2: Due to unexpected disruptions in Australian ore shipments, manganese ore prices surged significantly. Although EMM primarily relies on domestic ore, the rise in manganese alloy prices stimulated a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes for EMM. Supply side, manganese-related prices fluctuated upward, prompting idle EMM plants to resume production, leading to an increase in overall EMM production. Demand side, the significant rise in manganese alloy prices made EMM a more economical alternative raw material, boosting demand from downstream stainless steel mills. Supported by downstream demand and the sentiment to stand firm on quotes, spot prices for EMM fluctuated upward. 2024 Q3: Supply side, with a slight reduction in electricity costs, production costs for EMM plants decreased, and some EMM plants undergoing maintenance gradually resumed production, resulting in a relatively sufficient overall supply of EMM. Demand side, steel mills were affected by high temperatures and the rainy season, leading to increased shutdowns and maintenance, marking the traditional off-season for demand. Steel mills showed weaker enthusiasm for EMM procurement. Additionally, due to production losses, steel mills exerted pressure on raw material prices, showing low acceptance of high-priced EMM, causing spot prices for EMM to fluctuate downward.

[SMM Daily Review on EMM: Downstream Demand Remains Stable, EMM Market Maintains Status Quo] The average spot price of EMM in major production areas was 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, flat MoM compared to the previous working day; the average FOB price was $1,690-1,730/mt, also flat MoM. Major EMM producers mostly held back from selling, with weak willingness to sell at low prices. Currently, the market trading atmosphere is relatively mediocre, and mainstream EMM market quotations remain stable. In summary, manganese prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with attention needed on subsequent changes in transaction prices and developments in steel mill tenders.