SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in a stepwise manner and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

I. Nickel Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15–23), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, while overseas LME nickel prices showed a rebound. Pre-holiday surge: Before the holiday, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it would lock the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at approximately 260 million mt. Boosted by this positive news, market sentiment turned bullish. On February 11, LME nickel once surged to $18,070/mt, with the LME nickel 3M contract closing at $17,880/mt that day, a single-day increase of 2.93%. Post-holiday pullback then rebound: After the Chinese New Year holiday began (after February 16), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, and the pre-holiday positive news was digested. During this period, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on LME nickel prices, which pulled back. On February 17, LME nickel closed at $16,830/mt, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, influenced by a tailings landslide incident at Indonesia’s IMIP park, LME nickel prices rebounded noticeably but overall remained volatile below $18,000/mt. II. Key Macro Events and Industry Developments On February 18, a tailings dam landslide occurred at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in casualties. The affected area has currently suspended operations. On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the previous tariff policy of the Trump administration was illegal. In response, the Trump administration quickly invoked "Section 122" to announce a new 10% global tariff, which was further raised to 15% the following day. In terms of geopolitics, US-Iran negotiations have been volatile. Although progress was made in the February 17 talks, core disagreements remain, and the US continues to escalate military threats, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, due to fewer calendar days in February and the Chinese New Year holiday leading to partial shutdowns at some enterprises, production plans have been reduced. Refined nickel production in February is expected to decrease by about 5% MoM. Demand side, post-holiday, as traders and end-users resume production, market transactions are expected to gradually recover. Spot premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel are projected to remain high at 8,000–10,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums/discounts for domestically produced electrodeposited nickel are expected to stay within the pre-holiday range of -400–400 yuan/mt, with relatively stable fluctuations. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at elevated levels. On the downside, the 130,000 yuan/mt level for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policy; on the upside, the zone above 145,000 yuan/mt faces strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract after the holiday is projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to monitor include whether supply contraction expectations materialize as anticipated, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Sentiment Shift Coupled with Rational Correction, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Quickly Hit Limit Down in Morning Session]

[SMM Analysis: Review of Lead Market During Labour Day Holiday and Market Outlook After the Holiday] SMM May 5 News: Due to the Labour Day holiday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange suspended night session trading from April 30. The holiday period was from May 1 to 5, during which no trading of SHFE lead took place. The domestic spot lead market also entered a state of suspended trading. Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange in overseas markets continued trading as usual...

[SMM Analysis: Review of the Lead Market During the Labour Day Holiday and Market Outlook After the Holiday] SMM May 5 Report: Due to the Labour Day holiday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange suspended night session trading from April 30 onwards. From May 1 to 5, which was the holiday period, no trading took place for SHFE lead, and the domestic spot lead market also entered a state of suspended trading. However, the London Metal Exchange in overseas markets continued trading as usual...