SMM May 25 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.04%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.28%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.59%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.38%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit their daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36%, closing at 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt, with the average down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front China: [PBOC net injected 257 billion yuan via reverse repos today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, US President Trump's chief economic adviser, said he believes that an eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to do the right thing and lower rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. While surging US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose a growing political risk for Trump and his Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections, Hassett argued that accelerating inflation is primarily driven by energy prices. "If you look at the recent data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, you could actually see negative inflation due to falling energy prices." (Jin10 Data) Data: China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity for April and China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity YoY for April will be released today. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Additionally, it is worth noting that: Due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed on Monday, May 25. CME Group's precious metals and WTI crude oil futures trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, and US equity and Treasury futures trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed on Monday, May 25, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. South Korean stock markets will also be closed on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, UK stock markets will be closed on Monday, May 25. ICE's Brent crude oil futures trading will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure schedule (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined. WTI fell 5.92% and Brent fell 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) statement cited by the Iranian Students' News Agency, 33 vessels—including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels—passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran have agreed on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran have developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" to permanently end the Iran conflict, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US negotiators not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms—including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► Other metals spot midday reviews will be updated shortly, please refresh to check~

In May 2026, the European Union adopted a series of restrictive measures against China in the new energy sector, several of which are directly related to the photovoltaic and energy storage supply chains. In this situation, how will the European's solar market goes...?

Jinchengxin (603979) announced on May 22 that the company's equity interest in the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine has increased to 97.5%. Accordingly, the company plans to increase its project construction investment by $178.67 million in proportion to the equity change, bringing the cumulative investment to approximately $409.89 million. Apart from the changes in the company's equity proportion and corresponding investment amount, the investment estimate, construction plan, and other aspects of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project remain unchanged.

Nickel Ore " Indonesia Officially Issues Presidential Decree Requiring Designated State-Owned Enterprises to Monopolize Strategic Resource Exports Starting This June " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel ore price remained stable this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $18,849.3/dmt (up $1047.15 or 5.88% from $17,802.14 in early May). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.58/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $77.8-80.8/wmt. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28-33/wm.. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts For pyrometallurgical ore, unseasonal, abnormally heavy rainfall in the Central and South Sulawesi regions (Morowali and surrounding mining areas) has severely disrupted land transportation and barge transshipment. A series of micro-earthquakes (reaching up to magnitude M$1.9$) that occurred near Morowali between May 17 and 18 further exacerbated this impact. The combination of highly saturated soil moisture and minor crustal tremors has significantly increased the risk of landslides and slope instability, forcing mines to slow down their extraction and heavy-truck transportation pace for safety reasons. Therefore, even though the approval rate of regulatory quotas (RKAB) has reached approximately 90%, the spot supply of high-grade ore remains tight. To cope with exorbitant costs and tight supply, smelters are actively adopting cost-reduction strategies. These include blending low-grade ores into raw materials to lower the overall grade, promoting a unified premium pricing model of "HPM + USD $7–$10/wmt," and implementing standardized benchmarks for the chemical specifications of pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%) to eliminate additional premiums for individual ore components. Meanwhile, the hydrometallurgical nickel ore market continues to suffer a severe disconnect from official pricing. The price of low-grade hydrometallurgical ore is under severe pressure and has completely failed to follow the upward trend of the new HPM. This price depression is primarily driven by the dual contraction of smelter operating rates and immediate raw material demand, with the core trigger being a potential production cut in Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) caused by a sulfuric acid supply shortage in May. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory levels, MHP refineries are leveraging this low-capacity operating environment to aggressively suppress procurement bids, causing hydrometallurgical ore prices to continue hovering at low levels. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $49.95, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $70.83; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 240 million wmt. The macroeconomic and policy focus of the market has recently shifted, primarily concentrating on the following two major export and contract regulatory policies: DSI's Full Takeover of the Export Mechanism: The Indonesian government has confirmed that starting January 1, 2027, DSI will fully take over the export business of coal, palm oil, and ferroalloys. This policy will facilitate a smooth transition of the export mechanism in two phases. Since ferroalloys (including ferronickel, NPI, etc.) fall within the scope of this takeover, the market is closely evaluating the impact of this transition period on the export logistics and compliance costs of Chinese-funded smelters. Crackdown on Under-Invoiced Long-Term Contracts: The Indonesian government emphasized that it will honor existing, valid long-term export contracts to maintain commercial credit. However, at the same time, the government will strictly investigate and punish long-term contracts suspected of "under-invoicing" (low-price customs declarations). It is reported that relevant Indonesian departments will soon hold consultations with major industry associations to ensure a smooth policy transition while plugging loopholes that lead to tax revenue losses from underpricing. Nickel Pig Iron " Supply-Demand Price Gap Widens; Short-Term Prices to Fluctuate within a Range " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price fell by RMB 5.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1140.3 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index dipped by USD 1.37 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.52 per nickel unit. Downstream purchasing sentiment dropped even more visibly, intensifying the divide in market mindsets between buyers and sellers. On the supply side, existing NPI production cutbacks, coupled with recent disruptions from Indonesian export policy updates, have gradually tightened spot availability. Consequently, upstream producers are holding back cargo to defend their asking prices, generally keeping their offers firm. Sellers only slightly softened their quotes under the weight of weak futures markets, and their willingness to offload cargo at lower price levels remains low. This expectation of tighter market supply provides a solid floor for prices. On the demand side, pressure remains acute. The stainless steel market lacks upward momentum, forcing steel mills to adopt a highly cautious procurement stance centered strictly around hand-to-mouth restocking. Furthermore, as the price-to-performance advantage of stainless steel scrap expands, downstream buyers are pushing hard for discounts. Target buying prices remain heavily clustered between RMB 1,120 and 1,130/mtu, leaving a massive spread against upstream asking prices that makes reconciling the two sides very difficult. Market Outlook: While expectations of tightening supply will support spot prices, the weak futures market and competitive pricing from alternative raw materials will continue to cap upside gains. Accordingly, high-nickel pig iron prices are expected to exhibit a high-level, range-bound volatile trend next week.

SMM May 22: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in April 2026 were approximately 265,000 mt, up 4.1% MoM and up 5.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled approximately 911,000 mt, up 9.2% YoY. In April, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 16,000 mt, up 6.3% MoM and up 13.7% YoY. From January to April, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled approximately 54,000 mt, up around 55.1% YoY. In April, China's net primary aluminum imports were 250,000 mt, up 4.0% MoM and up 5.5% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 858,000 mt, up 7.2% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) By country of origin, 83.6% of China's total primary aluminum imports in April came from the Russian Federation, 7.9% from Indonesia, 3.5% from Australia, and 2.7% from India. By trade mode, from January to April, the share of primary aluminum imports under Ordinary Trade was 4.0%, 1.3%, 1.7%, and 0.2% respectively, down 23.6, 27.2, 21.3, and 23.7 percentage points YoY respectively. LME aluminum outperformed SHFE aluminum in price trends, the SHFE/LME price ratio declined, and imports under Ordinary Trade decreased. It is possible that large volumes of bonded warehouse cargo may be re-exported to other countries outside China going forward. According to SMM surveys, long-term contracts and previously signed orders in April were fulfilled normally. Combined with in-transit cargo arriving at ports successively, China's primary aluminum imports remained at elevated levels. Currently, the supply-demand gap in the ex-China aluminum market is significant, with high spot aluminum ingot premiums outside China. Going forward, some imported cargo may be diverted for re-export to high-premium regions such as Japan and South Korea, Thailand, India, and Europe and the US. Overall, China's net primary aluminum imports in 2026 are expected to decline YoY.

Jinchengxin announced on the evening of May 22 that the company held the 22nd meeting of the 5th Board of Directors on May 8, 2025 and the 2nd Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of 2025 on May 26, 2025, at which the "Proposal on the Planned Investment and Construction of the Alacran Copper-Gold-Silver Mine Project" was reviewed and approved. The company agreed to invest approximately $231 million in the construction of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project based on the expected shareholding ratio (55%). Currently, the company's equity interest in the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine has increased to 97.5%, and accordingly the company plans to increase project construction investment by $178.67 million in line with the change in equity ratio, bringing the cumulative investment to approximately $409.89 million. Apart from the aforementioned changes in the company's contribution ratio and corresponding investment amount, the investment estimate, construction plan, and other aspects of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project remain unchanged, still based on the feasibility study (FS) of the Alacran copper-gold-silver deposit completed in December 2023 (adopting the NI 43-101 standard). Regarding (1) Project Overview, Jinchengxin announced: Investment project: Alacran copper-gold-silver mine open-pit mining and beneficiation project. Based on the feasibility study (FS) of the Alacran copper-gold-silver deposit completed in December 2023 (adopting the NI 43-101 standard), the main content of the project design is as follows: Design scale: This project is a mining and beneficiation project. The mine adopts open-pit mining, with total ore within the designed pit limit of 97.9 million mt. The mine produces surface oxide ore and previously mined and stockpiled tailings (old tailings), as well as mixed ore and primary ore. For different ore properties, a grinding-flotation plant and a gravity separation plant are designed. The grinding-flotation plant mainly processes primary ore and mixed ore, while the gravity separation plant processes surface oxide ore and old tailings. The grinding-flotation plant has a designed processing capacity of 17,600 mt/day, with final products being copper concentrates and gold-silver concentrates; the gravity separation plant has a designed processing capacity of 2,400 mt/day, with final products being gold-silver concentrates. The project is expected to cumulatively recover 797 million pounds of copper, 550,000 ounces of gold, and 5.35 million ounces of silver. Investment estimate: The project investment estimate is $420.4 million, to be used for open-pit mine infrastructure stripping, mining industrial site, raw ore primary crushing station, coarse ore stockpile, grinding-flotation plant and gravity separation plant, concentrates thickening and filtration system, tailings thickening and conveying system, tailings storage facility, mine roads, water supply system, main step-down substation, external power supply lines, external roads, office and living camp, sewage treatment facilities, etc. Company investment amount: The company plans to invest approximately $409.89 million based on a 97.5% shareholding ratio, an increase of $178.67 million over the previously approved amount. Construction plan and service life: The project construction period is 2 years, and the mine life after completion is expected to be 14.2 years. Economic benefit forecast: The project's after-tax net present value (NPV) is $360 million (discount rate 8%), internal rate of return (IRR) is 23.8%, and the investment payback period is expected to be 3 years. The economic benefit calculation is based on copper prices of $3.99/pound, gold prices of $1,715/ounce, and silver prices of $22.19/ounce. For details on the feasibility study (FS) of the Alacran copper-gold-silver deposit, please refer to the "Jinchengxin Progress Announcement on the San Matias Copper-Gold-Silver Project" released by the company on December 19, 2023. Regarding the impact of this investment on the publicly listed firm, Jinchengxin stated: (1) After the project is put into production, it is expected to have a certain impact on the company's future business development and operating performance, which is conducive to the company's further expansion into the mine resource development field, improving the company's industrial layout, and promoting the company's sustained, stable, and healthy development. (2) This investment in the subsequent construction of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project based on the shareholding ratio is in line with the company's long-term development plan, is conducive to promoting the company's sustained, stable, and healthy development, and does not harm the interests of the company and shareholders, especially minority shareholders. Jinchengxin announced on the evening of May 17 that the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the company's Alacran copper-gold-silver mine in Colombia recently received formal approval from Colombia's National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA). The company will subsequently fully implement environmental permit requirements to ensure harmonious coexistence between project operations and local communities. Based on the feasibility study completed in December 2023, the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine project is an open-pit mining and beneficiation project with an investment estimate of $420 million, total ore within the designed pit limit of 97.9 million mt, and expected cumulative recovery of 797 million pounds of copper, 550,000 ounces of gold, and 5.35 million ounces of silver. The company previously reviewed and approved an investment of approximately $231 million based on an expected 55% shareholding to construct the project. Currently, the company's equity interest in the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine has increased to 97.5%, and the company will follow the corresponding review procedures for project construction investment in accordance with the company's articles of association and make timely disclosures. Jinchengxin's Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 28 showed: The company achieved total operating revenue of 3.414 billion yuan, up 21.45% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 601 million yuan, up 42.55% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the increase in Q1 operating revenue and net profit, Jinchengxin announced: This was mainly due to increased sales of mineral resource products (copper cathode, copper concentrates, iron ore) and rising copper ore product prices during the period. Jinchengxin's 2025 annual report showed: The company achieved revenue of 13.894 billion yuan in 2025, up 39.74% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.339 billion yuan, up 47.66% YoY. Jinchengxin stated in its 2025 annual report: Operating revenue increased 39.74% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm increased 47.66% YoY during the period, mainly due to increased production and efficiency at captive mine projects in the mine resource development business during the reporting period. In addition, Jinchengxin stated on the interactive platform on April 28 that the company's copper ore product inventory increased at year-end 2025 and at the end of Q1 2026, mainly because the local rainy season (November–April) affected road conditions and transportation on peripheral roads of the Dikulushi copper mine in the DRC, and the produced mineral products had not yet been sold externally. China Post Securities' commentary on Jinchengxin's performance report showed: The resource segment saw volume-driven growth, while the mining services business was slightly dragged down. By business segment, the mine resource business achieved revenue/gross profit of 6.986/3.121 billion yuan in 2025, up 117.67%/130.20% YoY, while the mining services business achieved combined revenue/gross profit of 6.613/1.515 billion yuan, up 1.06%/down 13.47% YoY. The mining business saw both volume and price increases, while the decline in mining services was mainly due to the Lubambe copper mine being converted to an internal unit after acquisition, resulting in reduced recognized revenue and gross profit, and some projects being affected by declining work volumes/production ramp-up. Volume: Copper metal sales in 2025 were 92,700 mt, up 88.16% YoY; phosphate ore sales were 357,400 mt, down 1.00% YoY. The growth in copper metal production and sales was mainly due to the Lonshi copper mine reaching full production, the Dikulushi and Lonshi copper mines exceeding production plans, and the Lubambe copper mine being consolidated for the full year. In 2026Q1, copper metal production/sales were 22,400/18,100 mt, mainly affected by declining grade and the rainy season. Price: Copper prices were up 7.62% YoY in 2025 and up 36.72% YoY in 2026Q1. Production is expected to grow steadily in 2026, with significant long-term expansion potential. In 2026, the company's captive resource projects plan to produce 100,300 mt of copper metal (equivalent) and sell 99,700 mt of copper metal (equivalent), and produce and sell 300,000 mt of phosphate ore; the Yisitanxinshan magnetite project plans to produce and sell 1.25 million mt of iron ore concentrates. In the longer term, the northern mining area of the Liangchahe phosphate mine is expected to be put into use by the end of 2028, with annual capacity expanding from 300,000 mt to 800,000 mt; after the eastern zone of the Lonshi copper mine is put into production, annual production can expand from 40,000 mt to 100,000 mt; the Lubambe copper mine is undergoing technological transformation, and after completion is expected to produce 35,000 mt of copper annually; the company holds a 97.5% equity stake in the San Matias copper-gold-silver mine, which is in the EIA approval stage. Risk warnings: Price fluctuation risks; project progress falling short of expectations; downstream demand falling short of expectations; model assumptions not matching reality; policy risks exceeding expectations, etc.