On Tuesday, silver prices in London surged significantly, breaking through the $37 per ounce mark with a gain of over 2%. This also marked the fifth consecutive trading day in which silver prices diverged from gold prices. Historical data shows that over the past half-century, silver and gold prices have moved in the same direction on 78.9% of trading days. UBS analysts pointed out that despite the recent gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios being favorable for silver and platinum prices to rise, it is difficult to determine whether market participants are truly engaging in catch-up trading. Currently, the gold-to-silver ratio has fallen to 91, slightly above the ten-week low of 90.5 reached last Tuesday, but well below the level above 100 seen in April when Trump announced the trade war. Theoretically, when the gold-to-silver price ratio is too high, the market will start to push up silver prices to narrow the price spread between the two metals. Gold's Logic Remains Unchanged One point that surprised investors was that amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, gold prices fell on Tuesday, retreating from $3,400 per ounce to around $3,390. Meanwhile, due to concerns that the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane could be blocked due to the conflict, Brent crude oil prices soared above $78 per barrel on Tuesday, reaching the highest level since late January and more than 30% above the four-year lows seen in April and May. The movement of gold prices is clearly opposite to that of most safe-haven assets. However, UBS believes that gold's current consolidation is setting the stage for the next round of gains, as bullish sentiment towards gold remains unchanged. Nicky Shiels, a strategist at MKS PAMP, a Swiss gold bar refining and financial group, added that gold is still expected to reach a high of $3,500, as the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran could be a catalyst for nuclear war or an even larger conflict. Industrial metals, particularly overbought ones like platinum, may face stress tests as traditional safe-haven assets will remain more popular. Carsten Menke, head of research at Julius Baer Group in Switzerland, also told the media that considering the potential consequences of the conflict and the typical timidity of short-term traders in the market, gold's reaction may seem surprising at first glance. However, he emphasized that a closer look reveals that this aligns with the historical pattern where geopolitical shocks do not sustainably push up gold prices. Notably, many analysts are waiting for the US response to the conflict between Iran and Israel. As US President Trump left the G7 summit early and expressed a reluctance to mediate the conflict, the market is concerned that the US may further support Israel. Amid these concerns, silver prices broke through on Tuesday.

After a clear upward breakout in technical patterns, the precious metals market witnessed a spectacular scene of "silver and platinum soaring together" on Thursday... On one hand, spot silver prices surged by 4.5% during Thursday's trading session, reaching a high of $36.06 per ounce, the highest level since February 2012. On the other hand, spot platinum prices soared by 4.8% overnight and further refreshed their highest level since March 2022 at $1,152 per ounce during the Asian session on Friday. It can be said that these two precious metal commodities, which were unremarkable during the gold rally earlier this year, now seem to be simultaneously embarking on a catch-up rally... In response, industry insiders stated that the simultaneous surge in silver and platinum appears to reflect investors' growing demand for precious metals used in industrial applications. Meanwhile, with gold prices already hovering near a high of $3,400, other precious metal varieties that had lagged behind in gains are now coming more into the sight of physical buyers and investors. Nicky Shiels, Head of Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP SA, pointed out in Thursday's report that the enhanced technical momentum and improved fundamentals across the precious metals sector have provided a boost to these metals. Strong physical silver demand from India and the recovery of platinum demand in China have further strengthened the upward trend. Silver—and sometimes platinum as well—often moves in tandem with gold, which has long been regarded as a timeless safe haven during periods of geopolitical turmoil. Over the past 12 months, spot gold prices have surged by more than 40%, as the escalation of tariff wars initiated by the US has enhanced its safe-haven appeal, and central banks around the world have continued to make substantial purchases. The gains in silver and platinum over the past year have actually fallen far short of those in gold—up 19% and 13% respectively as of Thursday. This scenario is naturally related to their far weaker safe-haven attributes compared to gold. However, in the industrial sector, they are not without value to explore. Silver is a key material for solar panels, while platinum is used in automotive catalytic converters and laboratory equipment. After years of undersupply, both metals markets will still face a supply deficit this year. Catch-up rally begins MKS PAMP's Shiels stated that maintaining silver prices above $35 would be a "critical turning point," and if sustained, it should reignite the interest of retail investors who have been on the sidelines. She further added that given the high leasing rates indicating a tightening market, a potential recovery in demand for platinum ETFs could trigger a speculative rally. According to industry-compiled data, the open interest in platinum ETFs is currently showing signs of a rebound, having increased by more than 3% since mid-May. Meanwhile, inflows into silver ETFs have also been growing continuously since February, with cumulative open interest climbing by nearly 8%. Alexander Zumpfe, a senior trader at Germany's gold refiner Heraeus Group, stated that the recent rally in silver may be driven by a combination of technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and rising investor interest. He pointed out, "After lagging behind gold for several weeks, silver is now catching up, indicating that momentum-driven investors have reignited their interest in silver." Maria Smirnova, senior portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Sprott Asset Management, also noted, "This breakout in silver has been brewing for some time. Silver has made multiple attempts to breach the $35 mark in recent months, making this breakout significant. If changes in technical factors further drive physical investors to buy in the coming days, silver prices could rise rapidly and substantially." Investors are also currently focusing on the US May non-farm payrolls report, which will be released on Friday evening. The poor performance of the US ADP employment data and initial jobless claims on Wednesday and Thursday has strengthened market expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates at least twice this year. A decline in borrowing costs typically benefits the performance of these precious metals.

As US President Trump wielded the "tariff stick" indiscriminately and economic and geopolitical uncertainties continued to disrupt the market, an interesting phenomenon emerged: super-rich individuals were increasingly turning their attention to the safer option of physical gold, transferring it overseas, with Singapore emerging as a popular destination. The reason is simple: Singapore is home to "The Reserve," a colossal vault standing at 32 meters tall. According to Gregor Gregersen, the founder of "The Reserve," from the beginning of this year until April, the precious metals storage facility received 88% more orders for gold and silver compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, data provided by the company also showed that sales of gold and silver bars soared by 200% YoY during the same period. Industry observers believe that this trend is driven by growing unease. Gregersen stated, "Many very high-net-worth clients are concerned about tariffs, changes in the world, and the possibility of geopolitical instability. Today, storing physical metals in a safe jurisdiction like Singapore is becoming a major trend." He added that 90% of the new orders came from outside Singapore. It is understood that "The Reserve" spans 180,000 square feet, boasting not only a vast scale but also integrating high-tech security systems, capable of accommodating a vast quantity of precious metals, including 10,000 mt of silver and 500 mt of gold. Some commentators have noted that the storage capacity of this six-story vault is impressive enough to shake the entire financial world. Physical Gold Becomes a "Hot Commodity" In recent months, due to geopolitical tensions, gold prices have surged rapidly, hitting record highs. Although they have pulled back somewhat after the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, some market observers still believe that gold prices could climb to $5,000 per ounce next year. Gregersen said that wealthy individuals are increasingly choosing physical gold bars over "paper gold trading" because they do not want to bear significant price risks. While storing and holding physical gold is not entirely free from price risks, it limits certain risks associated with "paper gold." Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group, a gold dealer, said that an increasing number of clients investing in gold are requesting to have physical gold delivered to them. He estimated that the proportion of clients insisting on holding physical gold has surged from 20% in past years to 70%. Analysts point out that physical gold has unique advantages compared to other investment options. It has no counterparty risk, allowing investors to directly own and control their gold assets. Additionally, physical gold offers a high degree of privacy, meeting the wealth protection needs of high-net-worth individuals. Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP, a precious metals refining and trading company, stated that the Silicon Valley Bank crisis that erupted in 2023 also prompted investors to prefer physical ownership or safe allocation of specific gold bars, rather than relying on paper claims or merely holding shares in a pooled reserve—shares that could be at risk if the bank fails. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, similarly pointed out that this is particularly true for those concerned about the health of the global financial system. "Some holders of physical precious metals are cautious about storing gold within the banking system, even in allocated form, and therefore prefer to store it with entities outside the banking system," he added.

Gold continued to edge higher after posting its biggest one-day gain in 18 months, as US President Trump's tariff agenda confused the market, prompting investors to buy precious metals for safe-haven purposes. On Wednesday, the market experienced sharp volatility, with gold surging as much as 3.9% and eventually closing up 3.3%. During Thursday's Asian session, gold broke through the $3,120 level, just $50 short of the all-time high set last week. By 2025, it had already risen by more than $400. The erratic nature of the US government's tariff plans has unsettled global markets, with investors scrambling for direction and certainty. This typically supports gold, which has risen 18% so far this year. Hopes for further monetary policy easing by the US Fed and central bank purchases have also boosted gold prices. In the previous trading session, gold initially surged after US tariffs on about 60 trading partners took effect, exacerbating market turmoil and increasing concerns about a global economic downturn. Subsequently, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of plans to raise tariffs on 56 trading partners and the EU, which will now be taxed at a baseline rate of 10%. Markets rebounded after Trump announced the tariff hike suspension. US stocks had their best day since the financial crisis, with the S&P 500 surging nearly 10%, after teetering on the edge of a bear market the previous week. The head of commodity strategy at TD Securities said, "Ultimately, gold is still seen as a hedge against instability . We are facing a situation where tariffs are becoming a big issue, and inflation expectations are also rising, which is reflected in higher yields." According to the latest released US Fed meeting minutes, Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces risks of rising inflation and slowing growth, with some pointing to potential "difficult trade-offs" in the future. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders expect a 72% chance of a US Fed rate cut in June. A market strategist said that as the global economy faces unprecedented uncertainty, gold will continue to outperform silver. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, raised her 2025 gold price forecast in her latest precious metals report, while lowering her outlook for silver. She stated in the report: "As tariff announcements solidify a volatile environment for hedging, defense, and safety, which will keep gold in play, our 'reflation' base case has been significantly delayed. The silver forecast has been revised downward (too optimistic relative to macro changes and the negative impact of tariff policies on growth and demand)." Shiels now expects gold prices to average around $2,950 per ounce this year, up from her initial forecast of $2,750. She said that while gold prices are rising, investors should expect higher volatility in the current market environment. Shiels stated, "Although gold will not be immune to liquidity-driven global de-risking events, wealth destruction in the global economy will benefit precious metals ." She stated in the report, "Stagflation is coming, as demand destruction cannot last forever; prices will be passed on to consumers, and this does not even take into account the fact that the uncertainty of tariff policies will push up consumer inflation expectations. An analysis of the performance of precious metals and asset classes under four different macroeconomic regimes from 2009 to 2024—Goldilocks, reflation, stagflation, and deflation—highlights that gold performed best (+12.1%), providing consistent protection during all stagflation periods." Shiels said that ultimately, as economic activity slows and inflationary pressures rise, gold prices will move higher. Looking at silver, Shiels expects silver prices to average $34.50 per ounce this year, down from her initial forecast of $36.50. Shiels said that while silver investment demand is expected to remain strong this year, declining industrial demand due to the global economic slowdown will outweigh investment demand. She said: "Given the expected negative impact of the global trade war, silver's industrial demand should be under pressure. Unless a new catalyst emerges, silver will remain more comfortably in the $28-35 range. The prospect of a significant rise in silver to $40/oz, driven by gold's outperformance and substantial reinvestment, depends on a more accommodative US Fed policy and a significant rollback in trade war policies and rhetoric. If anything changes, it is only likely to happen in H2 2025." Shiels' updated outlook was released against the backdrop of gold significantly outperforming silver, with the gold-silver ratio hitting a five-year high earlier this week, exceeding 106.