As of July 24, premiums for 6063 aluminium billet across major Southeast Asian markets remained broadly stable throughout July, with no adjustments recorded for four consecutive weeks. The ex-works premium for homogenised 6063 aluminium billet in Cambodia averaged $300/mt, while premiums for homogenised billet in Malaysia and Thailand both stood at $262.5/mt. The ex-works premium for non-homogenised 6063 aluminium billet in Thailand was assessed at $222.5/mt, compared with $205/mt in Vietnam. Meanwhile, the CIF Thailand premium for Chinese exports of non-homogenised 6063 aluminium billet was assessed at a range of minus $100/mt to plus $100/mt, with a midpoint of $0/mt. In terms of price movements, premiums for homogenised 6063 aluminium billet in Thailand and Malaysia had already retreated from their previous highs in June compared with May, before stabilising in July. However, stable premiums did not indicate an improvement in market demand. The 2026 Q3 MJP was settled at $395/mt, up $43.50/mt, or approximately 12.4%, from $351.50/mt in Q2, reaching a historical high. As reference prices for Southeast Asian aluminium billet are generally calculated based on the LME Official Cash Settlement, MJP and the applicable premium, the higher MJP further raised the overall procurement cost of locally produced billet and weighed on downstream purchasing interest. At the same time, Chinese aluminium billet exports continued to compete with locally produced material in Southeast Asia. In Thailand, for example, the CIF premium for Chinese non-homogenised 6063 aluminium billet was assessed at minus $100/mt to plus $100/mt, substantially below the ex-works premium of $222.5/mt for locally produced non-homogenised billet. Although the delivery terms and detailed cost structures of the two types of material are not directly comparable, Chinese export cargoes continued to hold a clear price advantage on a delivered basis. According to SMM market research, some Chinese export cargoes consisted of remelted secondary aluminium billet, which carries relatively lower production costs. Other cargoes were processed from imported materials before being re-exported, resulting in a cost structure different from that of conventional export trade. Supported by these cost advantages, purchases of Chinese aluminium billet in Southeast Asia increased, placing additional pressure on orders received by local billet producers. However, as aluminium billet and aluminium ingot are classified under the same aggregated HS code in existing customs statistics, it is currently difficult to quantify billet export growth separately. The assessment is therefore primarily based on feedback collected through SMM market research. On the supply side, renewed tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt shipping routes between Asia and Europe in July, affecting exports of Southeast Asian aluminium billet to the European market. Some cargoes originally intended for Europe were redirected to domestic and neighbouring regional markets, further increasing the volume that needed to be absorbed within Southeast Asia. On the demand side, growth in local billet consumption remained insufficient to fully absorb both the surplus supply from Southeast Asian producers and the additional material arriving from China. Under the combined pressure of intensifying supply competition, elevated procurement costs and weak end-user demand, overall trading activity in the Southeast Asian aluminium billet market remained subdued in July. Although premiums across major markets had not declined further, buyers slowed their procurement pace and showed stronger bargaining intentions. Looking ahead, Southeast Asian locally produced aluminium billet premiums are unlikely to gain significant upward momentum in the short term, as the Q3 MJP remains elevated, Chinese export cargoes continue to retain a price advantage, and the region’s ability to divert supply to the European market remains constrained. The high MJP will continue to support overall billet prices. However, unless local consumption improves materially, pressure to absorb regional supply is likely to persist, while market transactions are expected to remain weak. To align with buyers’ target transaction levels and compete with the price advantage of Chinese billet exports, some Southeast Asian billet sellers may need to lower their premiums, offer concessions on MJP pricing, or adopt more flexible pricing arrangements based on the prevailing spot MJP to facilitate transactions.

As of July 24, the premium for 6063 aluminum billets in major Southeast Asian markets remained stable throughout July, with no adjustments for four consecutive weeks. Among them, the local ex-works premium average for 6063 homogenized aluminum billets in Cambodia was $300/mt; the local ex-works premiums for 6063 homogenized aluminum billets in Malaysia and Thailand were both $262.5/mt; the local ex-works premium for 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets in Thailand was $222.5/mt; and the local ex-works premium for 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets in Vietnam was $205/mt. The assessed range for CIF premium of 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets exported from China to Thailand remained between -$100 and +$100/mt, with a midpoint of $0/mt. From a price trend perspective, the premiums for 6063 homogenized aluminum billets in Thailand and Malaysia pulled back in June from their highs in May, and the price center temporarily stabilized after entering July. However, the stability of premiums did not indicate an improvement in market demand. The MJP for Q3 2026 settled at $395/mt, up $43.5/mt from $351.5/mt in Q2, an increase of approximately 12.4%, remaining at a historically high level. As the all-in reference price for Southeast Asian aluminum billets is mainly composed of the LME spot settlement price, MJP, and premium, the rise in MJP further drove up local procurement costs for billets, somewhat dampening downstream purchase willingness. Meanwhile, China's exported aluminum billets continued to compete with locally produced billets in Southeast Asia. Taking the Thai market as an example, the CIF premium range for 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets exported from China was -$100 to +$100/mt, significantly lower than the ex-works premium of $222.5/mt for locally produced non-homogenized billets in Thailand. Although the delivery terms and specific cost structures of the two supply sources are not entirely identical, Chinese export cargoes still held a strong competitive advantage in terms of landed price. According to SMM market surveys, some Chinese export cargoes consisted of secondary aluminum remelt billets with relatively low production costs, while others were produced under a processing trade with supplied materials before being exported, offering relatively competitive overall trade costs. Driven by price differences, purchases of Chinese aluminum billets in Southeast Asian markets increased, squeezing orders from local producers. As aluminum billets and ingots share a combined HS code in existing customs statistics, it is currently difficult to separately quantify the supply growth of billets through import and export data, and relevant assessments are mainly based on SMM survey feedback. Supply side, in July, the situation in the Middle East tightened again, continuing to affect shipping on Asia-Europe routes, and the shipment of Southeast Asian aluminum billets to the European market was somewhat restricted. Some cargoes that had originally planned to be exported to Europe were instead diverted for sale in the local Southeast Asian and surrounding markets, further increasing regional supply absorption pressure. Demand side, the growth in local aluminum billet consumption in Southeast Asia is limited, not enough to fully absorb the supply diverted back to the local market by local producers and the new supply from China. Weighed down by intensified supply competition, high procurement costs, and weak end-use demand, overall deals in the Southeast Asian aluminum billet market were subdued in July. Although premiums in various regions have not yet seen further declines, actual procurement pace slowed down, and buyers' willingness to bargain increased. Looking ahead to the near term, with Q3 MJP staying high, Chinese exports continuing to maintain a price advantage, and limited diversion capacity of the European market, the premium for locally produced aluminum billet in Southeast Asia is expected to still lack clear upward momentum. High MJP will continue to support the all-in price of aluminum billet, but if local consumption does not show significant improvement, the pressure to digest regional supply may persist, and market transactions are expected to remain in the doldrums. To get closer to buyers' target transaction levels and cope with the price competition from Chinese exported aluminum billet, some billet sellers in Southeast Asia may need to either lower premiums, make concessions on MJP pricing, or adopt more flexible pricing methods such as spot MJP to facilitate deals.

On July 22, 2026, a delegation from Shanghai Metals Market Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) held in-depth discussions with representatives of Stavian Industrial Metal JSC. The participants included: SMM Logan Lu, CEO of SMM Cason Lou, Director of Aluminum Processing, Marketing Department Lexi Chen, Key Account Manager for Overseas Information Sales Khai Yuen Chin, Senior Overseas Aluminum Analyst Stavian Industrial Metal JSC James (Nguyen Danh Vinh), Deputy Director of International Business Alex (Bui Trung Kien), International Business Representative The two sides exchanged views on the global aluminum market, the development of Vietnam’s aluminum industry, market information services, and the establishment of a regional pricing system, reaching broad consensus on several areas for future cooperation. Focusing on Southeast Asia and Exploring the Evolving Global Aluminum Industry Landscape SMM noted that in recent years, it has continued to expand its sourcing and sales network across Southeast Asia, establishing stable supply-chain connections in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other markets. Its business covers multiple metal categories, including aluminum, steel, and copper, while the company continues to explore emerging market opportunities across Southeast Asia. At the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Industry Conference, to be held in Ho Chi Minh City on November 19–20, SMM will officially launch the SMM Vietnam Aluminum Price and provide a detailed explanation of its pricing methodology. Against the backdrop of global supply-chain restructuring, evolving logistics patterns, and deepening regional trade, market demand for high-quality, in-depth, and timely market intelligence and reliable price references continues to rise. To address these needs, SMM has established a global presence across price assessments, market research, databases, consulting services, and international conferences. Its services cover major markets including China, Southeast Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Africa, providing professional market intelligence and data services to participants across the global industrial value chain. Advancing Vietnam’s Pricing System to Support Regional Industry Development SMM noted that aluminum trading in Southeast Asia still commonly references LME prices and the MJP Premium. However, as Vietnam’s manufacturing sector expands rapidly and domestic consumption continues to grow, demand is increasing for regional price benchmarks that better reflect local supply-and-demand fundamentals. Since July 3, 2026, SMM has officially launched the Vietnam 6063 Non-Homogenized Aluminum Billet Processing Fee and the SMM Vietnam 6063 Non-Homogenized Aluminum Billet Price , with both assessments updated daily on each trading day. （Resources come from the SMM official website） In recent years, SMM has continued to develop its global pricing system while accelerating its presence in Southeast Asia. By engaging directly with participants across the industrial value chain and establishing local price data collection networks, SMM is continuously improving its Vietnam market price assessment framework and providing the regional market with more open, transparent, and impartial price references. Representatives from Stavian Industrial Metal JSC expressed strong recognition of this direction and shared insights into the rapid development of Vietnam’s market in recent years. They noted that Vietnam’s aluminum trading volume continues to expand alongside growing domestic demand. Establishing a regional pricing system that more accurately reflects local market conditions would help improve transparency across the industrial value chain and support the healthy and sustainable development of the market. Stavian Industrial Metal JSC Founded in 2021, Stavian Industrial Metal JSC is a member of Stavian Group, one of Vietnam’s major multinational industrial groups. The company specializes in the trading, supply-chain management, processing and manufacturing, and industrial investment of industrial metals including aluminum, steel, copper, and zinc. Its business network spans more than 100 countries and regions worldwide, with the goal of becoming a leading integrated industrial metals service platform in Southeast Asia. In recent years, Stavian has continued to increase investment in Vietnam’s domestic industrial sector, gradually expanding beyond traditional metals trading into industrial investment and advanced manufacturing. Its key areas of development include: Industrial Park Development Stavian Group’s industrial park platform is advancing the development of green industrial parks in Vietnam, with major projects including industrial parks in Thai Nguyen Province and Hung Yen Province. These projects aim to attract industries including electronics manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, supporting industries, logistics, and food processing. They also incorporate ESG principles such as green energy, circular economy practices, and wastewater reuse, supporting Vietnam’s manufacturing upgrade and facilitating foreign investment projects. Green Metals Development The company is actively developing supply chains for green aluminum, green steel, and recycled metals while promoting the use of low-carbon metal materials. Carbon management and ESG principles have also been integrated into the company’s corporate strategy, with the goal of becoming a leading green metals distributor and carbon services provider in Southeast Asia. Major Industrial Cooperation Projects In recent years, Stavian has established strategic partnerships with major Vietnamese enterprises including Viet Hai Group and Dai Dung Group. These partnerships cover areas such as shipbuilding, steel structure engineering, machinery manufacturing, new energy infrastructure, and industrial projects, enabling the companies to jointly participate in major industrial and infrastructure developments across Vietnam. As one of Vietnam’s rapidly growing industrial metals companies, Stavian Industrial Metal JSC plays an important role in supporting the country’s manufacturing upgrade and strengthening its domestic industrial metals supply chain. It has also emerged as a representative local enterprise within Vietnam’s aluminum and broader industrial metals industry. Join the Conversation at SMM AICE 2026 Connect with aluminum producers, processors, traders, manufacturers, certification organisations, industry associations and decision-makers from across Southeast Asia and the global market. Explore aluminum pricing, primary aluminum supply, processing technologies, low-carbon development, CBAM compliance and new opportunities for regional cooperation. ? Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ? November 19–20, 2026 Register now: bit.ly/AICE26 and secure your Super Early Bird Pass and save up to USD 200. Register before August 31, 2026.

The global overseas primary aluminum spot market faced overall downward pressure this week, with spot premiums in Japan, Southeast Asia, South Korea and the US all falling week-on-week. The Asian market was weighed down by weak downstream purchasing sentiment amid the traditional consumption off-season. Ample circulating supply stemming from concentrated cargo arrivals in the US compounded the bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the LME curve briefly flipped into a Backwardation (B) structure this week. Elevated capital costs prompted traders to step up sell-downs, pushing spot offers lower across regions and dragging down transaction benchmarks. I. Weekly Comparison of Key Global Spot Premiums II. Regional Spot Transaction & Market Commentary (I) Asian Market: Sluggish Off-Season Buying, Wide Disparity Between Long-Term Benchmark QMJP and Spot Prices Japan Market Japan’s spot market remained sluggish this week, with downstream buyers only placing sporadic orders to meet immediate operational needs and no large-scale restocking activities. The Q3 QMJP benchmark price was set at USD 395/mt, sharply diverging from actual spot transaction prices ranging from USD 330–350/mt, resulting in steep discounts against the quarterly benchmark across the market. Southeast Asia, South Korea and Indonesia Spot premiums in Thailand and South Korea retreated in tandem as traders showed strong willingness to offload inventories. Overseas end-user demand for Indonesian primary aluminum stayed muted, while downstream players remained reluctant to accept high prices, driving down local ex-factory offers and concluded transaction prices. Across Asian trading channels, the temporary Backwardation structure on the LME aluminum curve, paired with higher capital costs and inventory pressure, encouraged holders to cut offers to liquidate stocks. Coupled with feeble downstream demand, spot prices faced additional downward pressure. (II) US Market: Concentrated Cargo Arrivals from Multiple Regions Weigh on Premiums Easier spot prices in Europe previously diverted some Canadian aluminum ingots to the US, alongside a portion of Indonesian primary aluminum shipments. Concentrated cargo arrivals boosted market supply substantially. Despite rigid underlying demand in the US, the surge in available supply kept DDP premiums under mild week-on-week downward pressure. III. Core Macro Drivers Shaping Overseas Spot Markets End-User Demand: Off-Season Drags on Asian Buying Sentiment Southeast Asia and Japan entered their traditional demand off-season. Downstream fabricators only purchased materials on an as-needed basis without proactive stockpiling, and market acceptable price levels kept sliding, leaving spot transactions without solid support. Trading Flows: High Capital Costs Fuel Traders’ Inventory Liquidation The temporary Backwardation structure on the LME aluminum curve lifted holding costs for metal traders. Most market participants opted to cut prices to sell stocks and recover capital, flooding the market with available material and further depressing spot premiums. IV. Brief Market Outlook In the near term, the off-season in Asia is far from over, and traders retain strong incentives to liquidate inventories, which will keep overseas primary aluminum spot premiums subdued. Market participants will closely monitor the commissioning timeline of Indonesian aluminum projects and restocking activities among overseas downstream manufacturers going forward.

The overseas spot primary aluminum market faced overall downward pressure this week, with premiums falling across all regions. Driven by multiple factors including the traditional overseas consumption off-season, fading concerns over tight global aluminum supply, weak end-user spot demand, and pressure from trade arbitrage, spot aluminum quotations in major overseas regions kept sliding amid muted trading activity. In terms of pricing performance, premiums in core overseas markets generally declined week-on-week compared with last Friday, July 3. The US Midwest DDP primary aluminum premium edged down from 110.25 US cents per pound to 109.75 US cents per pound, remaining under bearish pressure. Asian markets trended lower in tandem: CIF Thailand P1020A dropped from USD 345/MT to USD 335/MT; FCA Korea P1020A fell from USD 366/MT to USD 335/MT; CIF Korea P1020A retreated from USD 350/MT to USD 319/MT; Japan MJP ingot spot premiums plunged sharply from USD 380/MT to USD 355/MT. Spot premiums across Asian overseas aluminum markets cooled off markedly. Regional Breakdown The Japanese spot market stayed broadly weak, with end manufacturers only restocking for immediate operational needs without bulk pre-purchases. As market expectations of tight global aluminum supply continued to ease, buyers became increasingly reluctant to accept higher offers. Meanwhile, arbitrage trades emerged during the week: traders accumulated spot cargoes at low prices and captured spreads against long-term contracts, further weighing down spot transaction prices and dragging Japan’s spot rates lower. The US market also faced headwinds amid its traditional consumption off-season and feeble downstream end-user demand. With overseas primary aluminum restarts and new capacity set to ramp up in the second half of the year, expectations of looser supply gained traction. Downstream buyers remained cautious with purchasing, accepting lower prices and pushing regional premiums downwards. South Korea and Thailand saw synchronized softening in market conditions with subdued buying sentiment and consistent cuts to market offers. Traders are eager to liquidate inventories, yet downstream purchasers slow down procurement with minimal buying interest. Lopsided bargaining power pushed offer prices steadily lower, exerting continuous downward pressure on regional premiums. Outlook Overall, overseas aluminum markets are stuck in the seasonal consumption off-season, alongside growing expectations of ample global aluminum supply. Lacking solid support from physical demand and robust buying interest, overseas spot primary aluminum premiums are likely to maintain weak volatile momentum in the short run, with further downside risks lingering.

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices Stabilize and Rebound Synchronously; China Destocking Solidifies Price Bottom Support] Amid intertwined bullish and bearish factors, overseas bullishness from the US dollar and bearishness from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After an earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum’s downward momentum has slowed, and it will mainly consolidate at lows for repair in the short term. Supported by rapid destocking, China’s aluminum price is unlikely to underperform LME aluminum. The SHFE and LME markets may see slight divergence, making a unilaterally weak trend difficult to sustain.