SMM May 6: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals all rose. SHFE copper gained 1.65%. SHFE aluminum gained 1.17%. SHFE lead gained 1.74%, SHFE zinc gained 2.24%. SHFE tin gained 6.6%. SHFE nickel gained 3.86%. In addition, casting aluminum most-traded futures gained 1.07%, alumina most-traded fell 0.56%. Lithium carbonate most-traded gained 6.59%. Silicon metal most-traded gained 1.77%. Polysilicon most-traded futures gained 1%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 2.52%, rebar up 1.44%, hot-rolled coil up 2.02%, and stainless steel up 1.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 2.29%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.04%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 1.37%. LME aluminum gained 0.36%, LME lead gained 0.41%, LME zinc gained 1.65%. LME tin gained 4.43%. LME nickel gained 1.66%. Precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold gained 1.85%, COMEX silver gained 3.18%. Domestic market precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded gained 1.84%, SHFE silver most-traded gained 5.15%. Analysts said gold futures prices rose as Middle East tensions eased. Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted in a research report that Trump announced a temporary suspension of the plan to provide safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels, which eased tensions. Since gold hit an intraday high of $5,422 per ounce on March 2, gold futures have largely moved inversely with the degree of Middle East tensions. Dhar added that upside drivers for gold prices could come from several factors: hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, market pricing of interest rate cuts due to high energy prices dragging on global growth, and concerns over US Fed independence. (Jin10 Data) In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures gained 4.14%, and palladium most-traded futures gained 4.42%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract of Europe containerized freight index gained 2.75%, closing at 2,339.3 points. As of 11:42 on May 6, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 23,845-24,215 yuan/mt. Shuangyan had no transactions for now. #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 23,775-24,145 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the market quoted premiums of 70-100 yuan/mt against SMM average prices, with no quotes against futures for now... Macro Front China: [China's April RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6, accelerating expansion, with new orders achieving growth for the 40th consecutive month] China's services sector activity further accelerated expansion in April, with the composite PMI climbing to the second-highest level in nearly two years, indicating that domestic economic recovery momentum was still building. On May 6, the latest data showed that the RatingDog China General Services business activity index rose to 52.6 in April, up from 52.1 in March, signaling an acceleration within a continuous growth sequence, with the current expansion cycle having started in January 2023 . Meanwhile, the composite output index covering both manufacturing and services rose from 51.5 in March to 53.1, the second-fastest pace since May 2024, indicating a broad-based strengthening of China's overall business activity. [11.279 million cross-border trips made during Labour Day holiday, up 3.5% compared to the same period last year] According to the National Immigration Administration, border inspection agencies nationwide facilitated 11.279 million cross-border trips during this year's Labour Day holiday, with a daily average of 2.256 million trips, up 3.5% compared to last year's Labour Day holiday. The single-day peak occurred on May 2, reaching 2.529 million trips. Among them, foreign nationals made 1.255 million entry and exit trips, up 12.5% compared to the same period last year; of the inbound foreign nationals, 436,000 trips were made under visa-free policies, up 14.7% compared to the same period last year. A total of 531,000 cross-border transport vehicles (aircraft, vessels, trains, and automobiles) were inspected, up 16.6% compared to the same period last year. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Q1 revenue of large-scale electronic information manufacturers up 14.8% YoY] MIIT released the operating performance of the electronic information manufacturing industry for Q1 2026. In Q1 2026, China's electronic information manufacturing industry saw rapid production growth, continued export rebound, significant improvement in profitability, and accelerated investment growth, with the industry maintaining a sound overall development momentum. In Q1, large-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 4.31 trillion yuan, up 14.8% YoY; operating costs were 3.69 trillion yuan, up 11.7% YoY; total profits reached 217 billion yuan, up 1.25 times YoY. In March, large-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 1.68 trillion yuan, up 15.7% YoY. [PBOC net drained 393.1 billion yuan through reverse repo operations] PBOC conducted 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 419.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drainage of 393.1 billion yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.21% to 98.28. According to US financial website investinglive, USD/JPY dropped over 100 points in the short term, down more than 1% intraday, pulling back below the 157.00 level. The timing seems right — today is a Japanese market holiday, and the two previous intervention attempts also occurred in the window between the Asian session and the European session open. That said, the two previous interventions happened at a point closer to when USD/JPY had just broken through 157. This time, USD/JPY rallied all the way to near 158 before the suspected intervention occurred. Despite multiple attempts by Japan's Ministry of Finance, the effectiveness of intervention actions since last week has been diminishing, especially as fundamental factors continue to work overwhelmingly against the yen. The question then becomes how much money the Japanese authorities are willing to throw at this problem to make the intervention truly effective. Given the current broader economic backdrop, this is indeed a very thorny dilemma. The greatest hope Japanese officials are pinning on right now is that the US-Iran conflict can subside, thereby easing the pressure on the Japanese economy. Otherwise, they will continue swimming against a massive tide, trying to convince traders not to keep selling the yen. (Jin Shi Data) US President Trump posted that, based on requests from Pakistan and other countries, and given our tremendous military victories in actions against Iran, as well as significant progress made on a comprehensive final agreement with Iranian representatives, both sides have agreed that while blockade measures will remain in effect, "Operation Freedom" (the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a period of time to see whether the agreement can be finalized and signed. (Xinhua News Agency) Bond traders are ramping up bets that the US Fed's next policy move could be a rate hike rather than an interest rate cut. Swap contracts tied to central bank rate decisions now show that the market expects a greater than 50% probability of the US Fed raising rates before April next year, ahead of any interest rate cut. An increasing number of traders are also adding positions to hedge against the rising probability of a rate hike before year-end. This shift in market sentiment comes as policymakers appear increasingly divided on the interest rate outlook. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, believes that the possibility of interest rate cuts this year still exists, but it will gradually diminish as the Iran conflict drags on. He stated: "Without a doubt, the road ahead for Waller will be full of challenges." According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.0%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut at 4.0%. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July is 88.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut at 10.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point cut at 0.3%. Bill Northey, Senior Investment Director at US Bank Asset Management Group, stated: "At this point, it appears that the Iran situation has not materially escalated, and the market is breathing a sigh of relief." Although hostilities in the Middle East appeared to ease on Tuesday, the conflict continued to affect future US economic indicators and the US Fed's interest rate decisions. He added that, for example, if the Strait of Hormuz could be safely and fully reopened, it would dampen expectations of rising inflation and push 10-year US Treasury yields lower. "Our base expectation is that this volatility is likely to persist," Northey said. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include France's March industrial production MoM, France's April services PMI final, Germany's April services PMI final, Eurozone April services PMI final, UK April services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also noteworthy: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 1.39% and Brent down 1.4%. ING's commodities strategy team said in a report that the oil market faced renewed downward pressure as the US-Iran ceasefire agreement appeared to hold. Trump stated that "significant progress" had been made toward a "full and final deal" with Iran. The team noted that reaching an agreement to normalize oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz was crucial. (Jin10 Data) After the Iran conflict triggered fuel supply panic in Australia, Australia plans to include a A$10 billion ($7.2 billion) fuel security and resilience plan in next week's budget proposal. Australian Prime Minister Albanese stated that the plan would help build fuel and fertilizer reserves, including supporting the expansion of total diesel and aviation fuel reserves to a level sufficient for 50 days of supply. He also said the government itself would hold approximately 1 billion liters of fuel reserves. The Prime Minister and the Energy Minister discussed the plan after a national security meeting in Sydney. Australia's Energy Minister stated that Australia had responded to the crisis and currently held more domestic fuel reserves than at the start of the Iran conflict. He said: "This marks a significant shift in how our nation responds. We have been studying how to be better prepared for future shocks." (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME Zinc Recorded a Shaven-Head Bearish Candlestick with Daily Candlestick Center Shifting Downward] Overnight LME zinc recorded a shaven-head bearish candlestick, with the daily candlestick center shifting downward and the 5-day moving average forming resistance above. As increased uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict triggered inflation concerns, the US dollar strengthened, non-ferrous metals were overall in the doldrums, and bears

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,963/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded but subsequently came under pressure again, hitting a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering slightly. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and pulled back, showing an overall fluctuate downward trend, hitting a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. A slight rebound occurred near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: The US prohibited its individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran. Sources: Iran was expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump: Iran wanted the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Iranian military: did not believe the war was over. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism effective May 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. China will implement zero tariffs on all African countries with diplomatic relations starting May 1, 2026. MIIT: the next step will be to carry out the "AI + Software" special action, and promote computing power layout and edge computing construction in an orderly manner. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers made shipments following the market, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce. Suppliers mainly offered cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters, with premiums adjusted lower from the previous day. Mainstream origins were quoted at premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, supply in east China remained tight with significant regional price differences. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as the holiday approached, a few enterprises had already entered holiday mode. Spot order market transactions were moderate and scattered. Inventory: As of April 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 269,200 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery makers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption performance remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts and shutdowns, with regional secondary lead spot cargo continuing to tighten; ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market exhibited a weak supply-demand pattern on both sides, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

To strengthen the supervision and management of the recycling and utilization of waste power batteries from NEVs and related activities, and to promote the scientific and standardized recycling and utilization of waste power batteries, five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, jointly issued the "Notice on Launching a Joint Law Enforcement Special Campaign to Regulate the Recycling and Utilization of Waste Power Batteries" today. To implement the work deployment of the "Action Plan" and in accordance with the requirements of the joint departmental regulation "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization Management of Waste Power Batteries from NEVs," the "Notice" focuses on the prominent issues facing the recycling and utilization of waste power batteries from NEVs, takes the improvement of collaborative regulatory mechanisms as a key approach, strengthens full-chain supervision, and represents an important measure to regulate industry order.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Zinc Ingot Inventory Continued to Decline, Zinc Prices Surged During the Day]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,414.5/mt. After the opening, LME zinc dipped slightly, touching a low of $3,387.5/mt before quickly rising, reaching an intraday high of $3,454.5/mt. LME zinc then fluctuated at highs before pulling back, ultimately closing higher at $3,437/mt...