On July 22, Wesfarmers and SQM formally approved the expansion of the Mt Holland lithium project. The project will construct a second beneficiation plant and an ore pre-selection facility, increasing the nominal capacity of lithium concentrates from approximately 380,000 mt/year to 760,000 mt/year.

On June 9, a fire broke out at Greenbushes Chemical-Grade Beneficiation Plant 3 (CGP3). The fire was quickly extinguished with no casualties, CGP1 and CGP2 continued normal operations, and IGO confirmed the next day that its FY2026 concentrate guidance of 1.375 million to 1.425 million mt remained unchanged. CGP4 is planned to commence in 2027. Judging solely by the announcement, this was a well-handled operational incident. However, the location of the fire warrants closer attention: CGP3 is not existing capacity but incremental capacity being ramped up at the far left of the global cost curve – with a total investment of about AUD 880 million, designed to add approximately 500,000 mt/year of concentrate capacity, and which only achieved first feed in December 2025 and was originally expected to reach full production by mid-this year. The damage assessment is still ongoing, repair costs and timetable are yet to be quantified, and the so-called "guidance maintained" is based only on information from the initial stage of the incident. What merits tracking going forward is not the guidance itself, but whether the timing of reaching full production will be delayed. At the world's lowest-cost mine, a new production line has had a minor incident – should the market be concerned? Today, I aim to break down and clarify this mechanism by analyzing the role of Australian ore in the lithium price formation. Note: Clarification on the timeline for CGP3 reaching full production. At its FY26 Q2 results briefing in late January 2026, IGO stated that CGP3 achieved first feed in December 2025 and that ramp-up to nominal capacity would take approximately five months. Some English transcripts recorded management's remarks as "completing ramp-up before the end of the calendar year" (end of the calendar year). However, based on the timing of first feed, five months corresponds to mid-2026, i.e., before the end of the Australian financial year (FY26), which is consistent with the company's previously disclosed guidance of "reaching full production in mid-2026." The transcript likely mistook "end of the financial year" for "end of the calendar year." This article adopts the "mid-2026 full production" timeline. This timing implies that the June 9 CGP3 fire occurred a few weeks before the originally scheduled full production, and the actual impact will be confirmed in IGO's Q4 report (expected in late July). Greenbushes: A Benchmark at the Bottom of the Cost Curve Greenbushes' most fundamental advantage lies first in its ore grade. It is one of the world's largest and highest-grade hard-rock lithium mines in production, with raw ore grade roughly double the industry average. For spodumene mines, grade directly determines mining and processing efficiency. To produce one tonne of SC6 concentrates, Greenbushes needs to process significantly less raw ore than typical mines, giving it natural cost advantages in mining, beneficiation, energy consumption, and tailings management. Building on its high-grade ore, Greenbushes also benefits from economies of scale. The mine site now hosts multiple beneficiation plants with a combined nominal processing capacity of approximately 6.5 million mt/year, supporting a maximum lithium concentrate capacity of up to 1.5 million mt; once CGP3 has fully ramped up, it will add roughly 500,000 mt of additional concentrate capacity. With the mine life further extended to 2045, Greenbushes not only possesses low-cost advantages but also strong long-term supply capability. This is why Greenbushes has demonstrated significant resilience during the lithium price downturn. From 2024 to 2025, as lithium prices continued to pull back, many high-cost Australian mines and Chinese lepidolite projects faced pressure to suspend or cut production, yet Greenbushes maintained relatively sound profitability and continued to advance the CGP3 expansion. It represents not the industry's average cost, but the most competitive end of the global hard-rock lithium ore cost curve. Therefore, Greenbushes serves as a useful benchmark for observing the industry bottom. When lithium prices fall, high-cost capacity exits first, while low-cost capacity continues to produce. The closer prices move to Greenbushes' cost range, the fewer marginal units of capacity can sustain normal operations in the market, and the nearer supply exits are to completion. Greenbushes Has the Largest Production, but Limited Free-Float Volume Although Greenbushes has a very large production scale, relatively little of its concentrates can enter the spot market directly. Greenbushes is operated by Talison Lithium, whose shareholders include TLEA and Albemarle, with TLEA jointly held by Tianqi Lithium and IGO. The spodumene concentrates produced at the mine are primarily allocated under shareholder offtake arrangements, flowing to lithium chemical production lines within the shareholder systems of Tianqi, Albemarle, and others, and are not normally offered for direct sale to the market. Viewed through the framework of [Resources – Designed Capacity – Actual Production – Saleable Volume – Available Spot Volume], Greenbushes is a very typical case. Its actual production ranks among the world's largest, but since most of its concentrates are locked up within its shareholder system, the volume truly available for market-based transactions is relatively limited. This also means Greenbushes' influence on market prices is mostly indirect. On one hand, it defines the scale of global low-cost lithium resource supply, which has an important impact on the lithium chemical cost curve; on the other, its operating costs, offtake pricing, and expansion pace also serve as key references for long-term lithium ore contract negotiations and price assessments. By contrast, what really influences spot lithium ore prices in the short term are typically the marginal resources not fully locked up by shareholder offtake agreements and needing to find buyers on the market. These include some Australian mines, African lithium ore, and saleable cargo held by traders. Therefore, while the addition of approximately 500,000 mt of concentrate capacity at Greenbushes will alter medium and long-term supply-demand expectations, its short-term impact on the spot market may not be particularly pronounced. In contrast, the suspension or resumption of a marginal mine with an annual output of over 100,000 mt that primarily sells on the open market could rapidly influence spot quotes and market sentiment. It is well known that short-term prices are not entirely determined by total output; rather, they depend more on the volume of material freely available for trading in the market. For example, lithium carbonate's price elasticity hinges more on the current available volume in the market. The mine with the largest output does not necessarily hold the most direct pricing power in the spot market; what truly dictates short-term marginal prices are typically resources that are available, negotiable, and require immediate transaction. However, shareholder offtake does not mean such concentrates are completely isolated from the market. When smelters within the frameworks of shareholders like Tianqi and Albemarle reduce their operating rates, or when some smelting lines operate erratically, concentrates originally intended for internal consumption may indirectly enter the market through toll processing, resales, or inventory adjustments. These cargoes are usually not publicly tallied but affect the actual circulating volume in the lithium ore market. Their tracking requires assessment by combining shareholder smelter operating rates, concentrate inventory, toll processing arrangements, and import flows. In analyzing Australian ore supply, such shadow spot cargoes are often harder to observe than a mine's nominal production, yet can significantly influence the market during specific phases. SC6 and Lithium Chemicals: Transmission Direction Reversed Once Within a Year The price transmission relationship between Australian ore concentrates (SC6, CIF China) and China's lithium chemicals has completed a full round trip over the past year. In H1 2025, ore prices followed the downtrend. In Q1, Australian mines aggressively cut costs but did not reduce production, showing a strong willingness to sell. SC6 fell all the way to around $620/mt, and the lower concentrate prices, in turn, pressured lithium chemicals downward, forming a spiral. The market's concern at the time was: When would mines finally be willing to cut? The situation reversed starting at the end of Q3. The announcement of Yichun's plan to cancel 27 mining rights, along with the suspension at Jianxiawo, tightened expectations for domestic resource supply. Lithium chemical prices moved first, and SC6 followed with an uptrend that proved even more elastic—by December, the average price had already returned to around $1,300/mt. Formula pricing, linked to lithium chemical prices, allowed the mining side to capture the bulk of the upside gains, while the tolling margins of Chinese smelters were instead compressed. Meanwhile, the impairment and expansion adjustments at the Kwinana project reflect that lithium chemical conversion in Australia continues to face high hurdles in terms of cost control, production ramp-up, and operational stability. TLEA's Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant was fully impaired in mid-2025, with the second-phase construction halted, and IGO has clearly shifted its priority to mining. The role of Australian ore in the industry chain has been refixed as a supplier of concentrates, and the linkage between SC6 and Chinese lithium chemical prices will only tighten going forward, not decouple. The implied smelting margin—calculated by multiplying SC6 by the processing coefficient and comparing it to spot lithium chemical prices—has turned negative, meaning Chinese smelters using externally purchased ore are losing cash. Either ore prices must pull back or lithium chemical prices must rise; one of the two is inevitable. This indicator is the most powerful gauge of whether mines or lithium chemicals hold more pricing power. Australian Mine Production Resumptions: Price Breaks Through the Ceiling The key words for Australian ore in 2024-2025 were market exits, while in 2026 they have become revivals. Lithium prices have been climbing steadily since the beginning of the year, with futures prices once surpassing 200,000 yuan/mt, triggering a series of production resumptions in May and June: Project Action Timing Notes Bald Hill (MinRes) Resumed production after an 18-month shutdown Announced in May, first concentrates expected in Jul Restart cost approximately A$20 million Ngungaju Plant (PLS) Restart Planned for Jul Resuming roughly 200,000 mt/year Finniss (Core Lithium) FID approved, financing secured Targeting first ore in Q3 Financing approximately $205 million Kathleen Valley (Liontown) Evaluating expansion In progress — Mt Cattlin (Rio Tinto) Remains shut down From Mar 2025 to present Restart conditions not yet clarified Looking at these cases together, the real threshold for resuming production is more complex than simply having prices exceed cash costs. Bald Hill took only about two months from announcement to first ore because it had maintained a production-ready state throughout the shutdown, and MinRes's own mining services division could internally mobilize all operations—mining, crushing, and transport—without needing to wait for external contractors. Assets of this type are the quickest-responding supply when prices rise. Finniss, by contrast, was an entirely different situation: it first sold inventory to Glencore in exchange for liquidity, then cobbled together three financing instruments—convertible bonds, debt, and a share placement—before reaching FID. For mines with fragile balance sheets, resuming production is not an operational decision but a financing event; what low-price cycles destroy is not resources, but financing capacity. The market consequences of the resumption wave are already visible. Lithium carbonate hit a two-year high of 200,500 yuan/mt on May 13, then pulled back to the 160,000–170,000 yuan range in June, partly because the market saw resumption supply coming back. The logic is straightforward: when prices rise, idle capacity resumes production, supply expectations increase, and prices pull back. That list of idle capacity in Australia, when sorted, essentially forms the supply curve above lithium prices. The CGP3 fire and this wave of production resumptions are actually two sides of the same market: disruption to the incremental supply at the far left of the cost curve is bullish, while idle capacity at the right end accelerating its return is bearish. Looking at lithium prices this year from the resource perspective, equilibrium is being sought between these two forces. Lithium prices in 2026 are expected to fluctuate more frequently, but one-sided market moves will be shorter. After prices rise, what truly caps the height of the rally is the speed at which idle capacity re-enters the market. Projects under care and maintenance or on standby, such as Bald Hill, Finniss, and Ngungaju, essentially constitute elastic supply above lithium prices. When lithium prices return above the cash costs of these projects and stay there long enough, mines have the incentive to resume production. But production resumptions do not happen instantly. From the announcement of a restart to the rehiring of personnel, equipment maintenance, resumption of mining and processing, inventory buildup, and finally, the entry of concentrates into the market, it typically takes from two months to several quarters. This time lag is the window during which supply disruptions can drive prices higher. The suspension at Jianxiawo and the CGP3 fire at Greenbushes were able to affect market sentiment not because of a sudden global shortage of lithium resources, but because of a reduction in short-term available supply while idle capacity had yet to return. Compared to the previous cycle, it is worth noting that the window for risk premiums arising from resource-side disruptions is shortening. A growing number of mines are opting for care and maintenance rather than permanent closure; mining service companies, traders, and downstream enterprises are also participating in restart financing and offtake arrangements. As long as prices return above the break-even line, some idle capacity can resume more quickly. This means that in the future, lithium prices may still rise rapidly following supply disruptions, but the duration and height of one-sided market moves will be more easily constrained by production resumption expectations. Prices may not necessarily become more stable, but supply feedback could be faster. SMM New Energy Analyst Yang Le

On February 26, foreign media reported that POSCO and SK On have signed a long-term lithium supply agreement aimed at stabilizing the battery materials supply chain. According to the agreement, POSCO will supply SK On with over 25,000 tons of lithium from 2026 to 2028. This volume is sufficient to produce batteries for approximately 400,000 electric vehicles. It is understood that the lithium will be produced at POSCO Argentina SAU's Hombre Muerto salt flat in Salta Province, Argentina. Meanwhile, SK On indicated that the lithium could potentially also be used for energy storage systems.

[POSCO and SK On Form Lithium Alliance for Battery Cooperation] POSCO and SK On have signed a long-term lithium supply agreement, aiming to stabilize the battery materials supply chain. According to a statement released by the two companies on Wednesday, POSCO will supply up to 25,000 mt of lithium from this year until 2028 under the agreement. This supply is sufficient to produce batteries for approximately 400,000 EVs. The lithium will be produced by POSCO Argentina at the Salar del Hombre Muerto salt flat in Salta Province, Argentina, and supplied to SK On's EV battery projects in Europe and North America. SK On is also considering using the material for ESS. Source: https://pulse.mk.co.kr/ [Cornwall's Geothermal Revolution: Extracting Green Energy and Lithium from Granite] The UK's renewable energy sector has achieved a significant leap forward, with a pioneering mini power station in Cornwall officially commencing operation, successfully using underground hot granite to produce zero-carbon electricity and extract high-value battery-grade lithium. Led by Geothermal Engineering Ltd., the project innovatively combines green power generation with critical minerals extraction, is expected to revitalize the region's historic mining economy and supply electricity to thousands of households via the power grid. For East Africa, a region rich in geothermal potential (particularly the Kenyan Rift Valley), the dual extraction technology provides an attractive model. If African energy producers can adopt this approach, simultaneously obtaining electricity and high-profit minerals from geothermal wells, it will significantly enhance the economic feasibility of green energy projects across the continent. Source: https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/ [Zimbabwe Bans Lithium Exports: Global Supply Chain Crisis Emerges] Zimbabwe's recent decision to implement a comprehensive ban on lithium exports marks a watershed moment for the global critical minerals market, highlighting the growing influence of resource nationalism on international supply chains. This policy shift reflects a broader trend: mineral-rich countries are prioritizing domestic value creation over raw material exports, fundamentally altering the landscape of the global battery metals market. The impact extends far beyond a single country; its ripple effects will run through international supply chains, from EVs to renewable energy infrastructure. When countries with significant mineral reserves impose export restrictions, the resulting market dynamics can permanently alter the entire industry's price structures, investment flows, and strategic planning. Zimbabwe's recent decision to suspend mineral exports is a prominent example of this phenomenon. This southern African country, which supplied approximately 10% of the world's lithium resources in 2024, has effectively cut off external supply of its battery metal resources, forcing international buyers to scramble for alternative sources, while domestic processing capacity remains severely underdeveloped. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Atlantic Lithium Acquisition Proposal Rejected: 2026 Strategic Value Preservation Strategy] When mature miners pursue mergers and acquisitions during market recovery periods, the core of their strategy shifts from acquiring distressed assets to preserving strategic value. The lithium industry exemplifies this dynamic—during phases of rebounding commodity prices, pre-production developers increasingly tend to reject acquisition proposals, prioritizing long-term value creation over immediate liquidity events. Furthermore, understanding broader critical minerals strategies is essential when assessing these complex market dynamics. Market participants observed that spodumene concentrate prices rebounded from a cyclical low of $800/mt in October 2025 to approximately $1,900/mt by February 2026, a 137.5% increase within four months. This rapid recovery has created a significant valuation gap between acquirers' offers and target companies' intrinsic value assessments. The case of Atlantic Lithium's rejected acquisition proposal demonstrates how pre-production lithium developers evaluate conditional non-binding acquisition offers based on the medium and long-term demand fundamentals in the EV and BESS sectors. Enterprises in the late-stage permitting phase generally believe that current market conditions do not fully reflect the full potential of their asset portfolios. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Indian Company Deploys Non-Lithium Multi-Ion Battery System] Mumbai-based battery technology developer Gegadyne Energy stated that its delivery of the first non-lithium multi-ion chemistry battery packs to two of the world's largest material handling original equipment manufacturers marks a true "inflection point" for the forklift industry. Gegadyne has completed the first commercial deployment of its non-lithium multi-ion chemistry battery packs with Linde Material Handling India and the Godrej & Boyce Group. The company claims that this battery, with a cycle life exceeding 5,000 cycles, can be charged from 0% to 100% in 15 minutes, thereby "completely eliminating" dependence on the lithium supply chain. Designed for forklifts, cranes, and warehouse equipment, the battery operates effectively within a temperature range of -40°C to 65°C. Source: https://www.forkliftaction.com/

[Q2 Metals Expands Mineralized Body Scale of Quebec Lithium Mine Project Using Space Exploration Technology] Q2 Metals recently announced that its Cisco lithium mine project in Quebec has discovered multiple thick, highly mineralized intervals through drilling. This achievement benefited from the real-time multi-physics imaging technology support provided by Fleet Space's ExoSphere platform. As part of the ongoing 2025 drilling program, Q2 Metals stated that it has identified high-grade mineralized bodies through three drill holes, further confirming the regional development potential of the area as one of Canada's most promising emerging lithium ore districts. The Cisco lithium mine project is located in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, covering an area exceeding 410 square kilometers. The initial exploration target resource is estimated at 215 million to 329 million metric tons, with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade ranging between 1% and 1.38%. The company stated that, with the mineralization of multiple thick pegmatite zones confirmed, the project is expected to enhance the resilience of the North American lithium supply chain. Drill hole CS25-038 intersected 17 independent mineralized intervals, with the widest being 66.5 meters (1.55% Li₂O grade) and 58.9 meters (1.09% Li₂O grade) respectively. Another drill hole, CS25-039, discovered 12 independent mineralized intervals, including thick, high-grade sections of 108.5 meters (1.62% Li₂O grade), 71 meters (1.84% Li₂O grade), 77.7 meters (1.48% Li₂O grade), and 107.4 meters (1.87% Li₂O grade). Furthermore, drilling results from hole CS25-036 extended the known mineralized zone of the Cisco project, identifying 9 mineralized intervals. The widest interval reached 272.5 meters (1.61% Li₂O grade), and this mineralized zone remains open at depth and along strike. The company indicated that a fourth drill rig has been added to support exploration efforts, with the target of completing an initial mineral resource estimate in H1 2026. Last month, the Cisco project was nominated as a candidate for the "Discovery of the Year Award" by the Quebec Mineral Exploration Association (AEMQ). Source: mining.com [Chariot Advances Small-Scale Regulated Mining of Nigerian Lithium Ore Assets] Perth-based Chariot Resources has signed a binding conditional agreement with local partner Continental Lithium Company to conduct structured small-scale mining operations in four project areas across Oyo and Kwara States, marking a decisive step towards generating early cash flow from its Nigerian lithium ore assets. The agreement, signed through the joint venture entity C&C Minerals (Chariot holds 66.667%, Continental Lithium holds 33.333%), will become effective after Chariot completes the acquisition of interests in the Nigerian lithium ore assets – a transaction announced to the Australian Securities Exchange in July 2025. Upon completion of the transaction, C&C Minerals will become the holding company of the relevant licenses. The aforementioned four asset packages include eight exploration licenses and two small-scale mining leases, covering four major mining area clusters: Fengluo, Gubugu, Igana, and Saki, with a total area of 254 square kilometers. Artisanal mining activities are prevalent in this region. Since 2021, local miners have been selling high-grade spodumene to Chinese buyers, demonstrating the grade advantage of the lithium ore and market demand in the area. According to the cooperation structure stipulated in the agreement, Continental Lithium will leverage its local operational foundation established since 2018 to be responsible for on-site mining and logistics management; Chariot will lead project financing, compliance supervision, and advance negotiations for offtake agreements with multiple international commodity buyers. The project will be developed in three phases, aiming to transition artisanal mining activities into standardized small-scale mining operations: The first phase focuses on detailed mapping, sampling, and selective drilling around existing mining pits, with the goal of delineating localized JORC-compliant resources in priority areas such as Fengluo and Igana; The second phase will conduct metallurgical testing to determine the optimal beneficiation process (gravity separation, flotation, or a hybrid process) and evaluate potential by-product revenues from tantalum, tin, etc. The test results will support the development of a reliable beneficiation flow sheet and commercial feasibility assessment; The third phase will comparatively evaluate two processing routes: one involves toll processing at emerging spodumene processing plants in Nigeria, and the other involves setting up modular on-site processing facilities. A comprehensive analysis considering transportation distance, trucking costs, and the initial commissioning timetable will be conducted to ultimately determine the fastest and commercially feasible route to market. Chariot's management stated that this cooperation positions the company as one of the first listed exploration enterprises with substantial lithium resource reserves in Nigeria. As Nigeria is a region with significant hard-rock lithium potential but underexplored in Africa, this strategic move holds great importance. Source: https://newsbase.com [Century Lithium Announces Latest Progress on Angel Island Lithium Mine Project in Nevada] Bill Willoughby, President and CEO of Century Lithium, stated, "As the Angel Island lithium mine project advances, our team remains focused on completing several key tasks. The project has made progress in multiple areas: the team and consultants have completed and submitted all baseline data required for the Angel Island project operation plan ahead of schedule; the update of the 2024 feasibility study report is also steadily progressing. We believe that the Angel Island Project will create high-quality U.S. jobs, support the domestic critical minerals supply chain, and help Century Lithium become a U.S.-based producer of battery-grade lithium carbonate. Angel Island Project Overview The Angel Island Lithium Mine is one of the largest known sedimentary lithium resources in the United States, with superior geological, geographical, and logistical conditions. The company is advancing an integrated, end-to-end development strategy aimed at converting lithium-bearing claystone into finished lithium carbonate. A key advantage of the project is Century Lithium’s patented chlor-alkali extraction technology—which converts solid or brine-form sodium chloride into key reagents required for the entire production process. This closed-loop system offers sustainability benefits, reducing reliance on external chemical raw material supplies while delivering significant cost savings and environmental benefits. Permitting Progress All baseline data studies and environmental studies supporting the Angel Island Project have been completed and accepted by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. The company is finalizing the Plan of Operations (PoO), which will define the mine layout, processing plant configuration, water and water management systems, waste rock and tailings disposal plans, transportation infrastructure, and environmental mitigation measures. Upon submission of the Plan of Operations, the federal permitting process under the National Environmental Policy Act will commence. Century Lithium continues to advance related work to meet the timeline requirements set by the Federal FAST-41 Dashboard. Demonstration Plant Relocation The demonstration plant has been fully dismantled and relocated to the company’s site in Tonopah, Nevada. The 20-acre site, located within the Tonopah Airport, also serves as the Angel Island Project’s field office and previously provided critical support for bulk sample preparation and processing during the Amargosa Valley pilot plant program. Century Lithium is currently evaluating further upgrades to the site and facilities to expand R&D capabilities. Feasibility Study Update The 2024 update of the Angel Island Project feasibility study is progressing well. Current priorities include optimizing the mining plan and related equipment configuration to improve projected operational efficiency, as well as reducing the land footprint and refining plant design with the goal of lowering estimated operating costs. Key optimization areas include improvements to the fluid management system, direct lithium extraction (DLE) design, and lithium carbonate production process—all adjustments are based on years of development testing results from the demonstration plant. The power infrastructure plan is connected to NV Energy's adjacent Greenlink West transmission project, an under-construction 525 kV transmission system linking Las Vegas, Nevada, with the Fort Churchill substation near Yerington. The updated feasibility study report still focuses on lithium carbonate as the core end-use product, while also generating additional revenue from excess sodium hydroxide produced through the chlor-alkali process. Source: https://www.prnewswire.com [Lithium Price Rebound and Surging Demand Drive SQM's $2.7 Billion Expansion Plan] Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) reported solid performance for the third quarter of 2025, although earnings slightly missed Wall Street expectations—the company's net income per share was $0.62, just $0.02 below analyst forecasts. Boosted by strong performance in its lithium business, quarterly revenue reached $1.17 billion. Record lithium sales were the main driver of revenue growth, highlighting the rapid recovery of global battery market demand. Lithium Business Momentum Drives SQM's Strong Performance in 2025 Gross profit increased 23.1% YoY, reaching $345.8 million, marking a strong rebound after low lithium prices earlier in the cycle. Reuters noted that SQM benefited from rising lithium prices, supported by recovering electric vehicle (EV) demand and the global expansion of large-scale ESS projects. Given these strengthening trends, SQM raised its forecast for global lithium demand growth in 2025 from around 17% to over 20%. Looking ahead, SQM maintains optimistic market expectations. The company plans to invest $2.7 billion over the next three years to expand lithium capacity in Chile. SQM expects lithium prices to continue rising in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by accelerating demand for EVs and energy storage systems. Optimistic Outlook in Chinese Market Triggers Industry-Wide Rally Although SQM delivered strong results, global lithium market sentiment warmed further after China's Ganfeng Lithium issued a highly optimistic forecast. According to Bloomberg, Ganfeng Lithium's Chairman Li Liangbin projected lithium demand to grow 30% next year. His comments promptly triggered a sharp rise in lithium prices and mining stocks. The most active lithium carbonate futures contract on the GFEX surged by the 9% daily limit, hitting 95,200 yuan per mt (approximately $13,400). Investors reacted quickly, pushing shares of major producers higher: SQM's stock rose as much as 14%, while Albemarle's shares climbed about 9.3% amid the rally. This price surge provided strong support for SQM's quarterly financial performance. The company's Q3 net profit reached $178.4 million, up 36% YoY from $131.4 million in the same period last year; revenue increased 8.9% YoY, rising from $1.08 billion to $1.17 billion. As investor confidence grew, SQM's US-listed shares hit $64.60, reaching their highest level in over two years. Lithium Market Enters Recovery Track Despite the strong performance, the lithium industry continues to navigate a significantly fluctuating market environment. After lithium prices hit historic highs in 2022, they pulled back sharply as supply growth outpaced demand, putting pressure on the profit margins of major producers like SQM and Albemarle. However, a noticeable turnaround occurred in H2 2025. SQM stated that lithium demand during the July-September period exceeded expectations. CEO Ricardo Ramos told analysts that, despite ongoing market volatility, SQM holds a "cautiously optimistic" view for the coming months. He emphasized that market fundamentals remain strong – demand growth is coming not only from EVs but also from ESS, which has become a key component of renewable energy power grids. Ahead of Codelco Cooperation Agreement Finalization, SQM Anticipates Demand Surge Furthermore, the mining giant expects global lithium demand to exceed 1.5 million mt in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024. Pablo Hernandez, Vice President of Strategy and Development for SQM's Lithium Business in Chile, said lithium demand could climb further to 1.7 million mt by 2026. However, he noted that despite stronger demand signals, the company remains cautious when estimating next year's growth. SQM is also preparing to finalize its long-awaited cooperation agreement with Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco. The two parties will establish a joint venture to expand lithium extraction operations at the Atacama salt flat. Chinese market regulators have already approved the transaction; the final step requires approval from Chile's Comptroller General. CEO Ramos expressed confidence that the deal will be completed by year-end. JP Morgan Raises Long-Term Lithium Price Expectations Given sustained strong demand and rising mining costs, JP Morgan has raised its long-term lithium price expectations. Earlier this year, the bank had lowered its long-term spodumene price forecast to $1,100/mt, but after reassessing global trends, it now considers that figure too low and has raised it to $1,300/mt. Key Conclusions Driven by the robust growth of the EV and ESS industries, the lithium market recovered rapidly, from which SQM benefited. Rising lithium prices, improved demand, and high investor enthusiasm collectively boosted the company's performance. Despite ongoing market volatility, SQM set sales records, established a solid financial foundation, and, supported by supply discipline and stronger pricing prospects, defined a clearer long-term strategy, laying a solid foundation for development in 2026. Source: https://carboncredits.com [Panasonic Energy to Supply Lithium-Ion Batteries to Zoox, Marking a Milestone in Its Entry into the Rapidly Growing Autonomous Ride-Hailing Market] November 25, 2025 - Panasonic Energy Co., Ltd., part of the Panasonic Group, announced today that it signed an agreement with Zoox, an autonomous ride-hailing company under Amazon, to supply cylindrical lithium-ion batteries for the deployment of Zoox's autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Under this multi-year agreement, Panasonic Energy will begin deliveries of the latest 2170-type batteries in early 2026 to support Zoox's expanding autonomous ride-hailing service and operational needs. Zoox created a customized autonomous ride-hailing vehicle to provide global users with better mobility options. The company recently opened its first mass-production plant for autonomous ride-hailing vehicles in Hayward, California, achieving scaled vehicle production; it has also launched an autonomous ride-hailing service in Las Vegas, becoming the world's first company to offer a fully driverless ride-hailing service using customized autonomous vehicles. Panasonic Energy's 2170-type batteries offer exceptional energy density, safety, and reliability, which are crucial for Zoox's high-performance autonomous ride-hailing vehicles. This cylindrical battery has been proven in several successful EV products, with unmatched safety. As of September 2025, Panasonic Energy had supplied approximately 20 billion lithium-ion EV batteries globally, enough for 4 million EVs, without any vehicle recalls due to battery-related issues, demonstrating the strong reputation of its high-grade, highly reliable battery products. Initial supply of this advanced battery will start from Japan, with plans to expand soon to Panasonic Energy's plant in Kansas, US. According to a recent market report released by Grand View Research, the US autonomous ride-hailing market size was approximately $450 million in 2024. Driven by forward-looking urban policies in cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Miami, the market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 70% by 2030. In hubs such as Phoenix, San Francisco, and Las Vegas, the adoption of on-demand autonomous ride-hailing fleets continues to gain momentum, with market penetration rates accelerating. Globally, this market is projected to exceed $40-50 billion by 2030, with North America and the Asia-Pacific region emerging as core leading markets. Panasonic Energy aims to seize emerging opportunities in this dynamic market to accelerate its own business growth. Kazuo Tadanobu, CEO of Panasonic Energy, stated: "Zoox is truly unique. This collaboration is a critical step for Panasonic Energy, providing us with the opportunity to support next-generation mobility innovation. Zoox is reshaping urban transportation, and Panasonic Energy will power these autonomous ride-hailing vehicles as we collectively advance toward a safer, more sustainable, and more connected future." Bruce Baumgartner, Vice President of Supply Chain, Quality, and Reliability at Zoox, said: "This is an incredibly exciting time for Zoox. We are thrilled to welcome Panasonic Energy as a new partner in our joint effort to redefine urban mobility. Their commitment to innovation and quality aligns closely with our mission to create safer, cleaner, and more enjoyable urban transportation. As we continue to scale our autonomous ride-hailing services and operations, we take great pride in collaborating with Panasonic Energy." Source: https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/en251125-2

US battery recycler Ascend Elements has entered into a long-term lithium carbonate supply agreement with commodities giant Trafigura, totaling 15,000 metric tons for delivery between 2027 and 2031. The collaboration will leverage Ascend's hydro-to-cathode technology and Trafigura's global marketing and logistics platform to build a low-carbon battery materials supply chain in North American and European markets. The lithium carbonate produced from recycled battery materials will help customers reduce their carbon footprint, mitigate geopolitical risks, and enhance supply chain resilience.