Since July, demand across the LFP industry chain has continued to rise, but the supply-side response has lagged. The most notable feature of the current market is that supply tightness is rapidly transmitting from downstream to upstream, creating a cascading inversion of "battery cell production schedule > LFP cathode production schedule > iron phosphate production schedule."
Jul 31, 2026 19:11[SMM Analysis] The demand along the LFP industry chain continues to rise, but the response from the supply side is significantly lagging. The most notable feature of the current market is that supply tightness is rapidly transmitting from the bottom up, forming a cascading inversion of "battery cell production schedule > LFP cathode production schedule > iron phosphate production schedule," with the slow release of LFP capacity and the iron phosphate industry segment having become the most prominent bottleneck in the entire chain.
Jul 31, 2026 18:47[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Price Hikes Push Up Production Costs, Electrolyte Prices Start an Upward Trend] Recently, upstream raw materials for electrolyte—including additives, lithium chemicals, and solvents—have all seen price increases, continuously squeezing the profit margins of electrolyte enterprises. As cost pressure is gradually transmitted downstream, the electrolyte has entered a price hike cycle.
Jul 31, 2026 18:03[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Edges Down on July 31] Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices edged down slightly from the previous working day. In futures, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened low at 143,900 yuan/mt today, briefly shot up to 144,400 yuan/mt before being pressured by bears, and prices consolidated lower and broke below the average price line. During the morning session, prices fluctuated weakly in the 142,000–143,500 yuan/mt range; near midday, bears intensified pressure, and prices rapidly dropped to around 140,000 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, prices consolidated at lows, and near the close, bears pressed again, causing prices to slide further and hit a fresh intraday low of 137,800 yuan/mt. The contract ultimately closed down 4.84% at 137,800 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 3,001 lots. In the spot market, at month-end, the downstream procurement pace slowed, with purchasing on dips as needed dominating. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold spot order prices firm, and long-term contract volume additions increased. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable. In July, affected by maintenance at lithium chemical plants using both spodumene and lepidolite routes, China's lithium carbonate production saw a notable decline. Entering August, although maintenance at plants relying on spodumene and lepidolite continues, salt lake lithium extraction benefited from warmer weather, and output climbed significantly, which is expected to effectively supplement overall supply. Overall, China's total lithium carbonate production in August is expected to increase by 7% MoM.
Jul 31, 2026 16:49Domestic lithium manganate market edged down slightly before stabilizing this week. Its price movement is highly correlated with lithium carbonate, lacking independent driving factors. Major producers maintain steady operation and prioritize deliveries to long-term clients. Ample supplies remain in the market without large-scale production cuts.
Jul 31, 2026 14:55[SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Summary: Raw Material Price Divergence Intensifies; Energy Storage Demand Supports Continued Industry Prosperity] This week, the relevant material markets continued to diverge in performance. Upstream ore prices stopped falling and rebounded, but high-price transactions remained constrained. Some ex-China capacities gradually recovered, and market attention shifted from supply disruptions to the pace of new capacity releases. Salt products were supported by maintenance outages, tightening circulation of spot orders, and low inventories, leading to somewhat active spot transactions. However, downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement on price dips, and concentrated stockpiling has yet to emerge. The cobalt industry chain remained under pressure overall, with the price centers of refined cobalt, intermediate products, cobalt salts, and cobalt powder shifting downward. Off-season demand, inventory pressure, and low-priced cargoes continued to weigh on the market. Nickel sulphate inventories declined, and cost support strengthened somewhat. Prices of ternary cathode precursors and ternary cathode materials generally remained stable. The LFP, electrolyte, and sodium-ion battery sectors performed relatively strongly, with demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles, and Q3 stockpiling driving production schedules higher. Inventories of some products continued to decline. The anode and separator markets were generally stable. Different raw material varieties in the recycling sector showed divergent performance. The overall industry chain remained in a phase of concurrent demand improvement and cost pass-through.
Jul 31, 2026 10:31Dear User, Currently, lithium carbonate prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, leading to markedly increased cost volatility for lithium metal, for which lithium carbonate serves as the primary raw material. To more promptly and accurately reflect market conditions for lithium metal, SMM plans to increase the publication frequency of prices for both industrial-grade lithium metal and battery-grade lithium metal from weekly updates to daily updates . The updates will be released at 12:00 PM Beijing Time on each working day for market reference: 1. Battery-grade lithium metal, Specification: Li≥99.9% 2. Industrial-grade lithium metal, Specification: Li≥99% We welcome more relevant enterprises across the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving new energy industry chain-related companies. Wang Cong 021-51666838 wangcong@smm.cn Feng Disheng 021-51666714 fengdisheng@smm.cn Wang Zihan 021-51666914 wangzihan@smm.cn Zhang Jing 021-51666878 faithzhang@smm.cn SMM New Energy Research Team January 8, 2026
PriceJan 8, 2026 16:47SMM Clarification Statement SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM" or "the Company"), as a professional spot market price reporting agency and information provider, has recently noticed the circulation of false information regarding the fairness of SMM's price assessment. To avoid market misunderstandings, maintain a healthy and transparent market environment, and protect the Company's legitimate rights and interests, SMM hereby makes the following solemn clarification and statement: I. The Difference Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices is a Normal Reflection of Market Mechanisms According to basic economic principles, spot prices reflect the immediate supply-demand relationship and deliverable transaction conditions of the underlying asset, while futures prices reflect market expectations for future supply and demand, including factors such as capital cost and carrying costs. Both follow the principle of "convergence at maturity," meaning that futures prices gradually converge towards spot prices as the contract expiration date approaches. Therefore, during the life of the contract, the difference between spot prices and futures prices, especially with far-month contracts, is a normal phenomenon under the market pricing mechanism. II. Historical Data Proves the Rationality of the Price Spread Structure To objectively present the facts, SMM has made a price spread analysis chart based on publicly available market data: The chart clearly shows that from September 2023 to 2025, the monthly price spread between the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price and the GFEX lithium carbonate futures contract prices fluctuated between positive and negative territory, always remaining within a reasonable range, and exhibited a significant convergence trend as the contract expiration date approached. This fully aligns with the market rule of futures and spot price convergence. Comparing a certain periods' futures prices (especially those of far-month most-traded contracts) with spot assessment prices and concluding that there is a "consistent significant deviation" is fundamentally flawed in methodology and can easily mislead market judgment. Any behavior that selectively highlights short-term trends in the price spread without considering the broader context is partial and irresponsible, failing to reflect the overall market situation. III. Recent Market Risk Control Measures Recently, to maintain the stable operation of the lithium carbonate futures market and prevent potential risks, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, in accordance with its risk management rules, issued multiple notifications consecutively between November and December 2025, implementing a series of risk control measures for relevant contracts, including adjustments to transaction fee standards and trading limits. These measures represent the exchange's commitment to fulfill its self-regulatory duties in accordance with the law during specific market periods, aiming to promote the steady development of the market. IV. The Emergence, Nature, and Harm of False Information It is noteworthy that during this sensitive period, when the aforementioned risk control measures were being intensively implemented, a significant amount of false information began circulating on the Internet. While such information varies in content, it shares an identical core narrative: False claims have been made that SMM’s prices "consistently and significantly deviate from fair value and futures prices" and that "there are illegal benefit-related connections with certain institutions". These claims are entirely groundless. The timing and manner of their dissemination indicate that their purpose is not professional discussion but rather an attempt to exert improper pressure on SMM by confusing the price logic of spot and futures markets, interfere with the neutrality of spot price assessments, and consequently potentially mislead market expectations and disrupt the normal relationship between futures and spot prices. SMM hereby solemnly declares that SMM is always committed to price discovery in the spot market, does not participate in any futures market trading operations, and resolutely maintains market order. V. The Compliance, Neutrality, and Supervision Mechanisms of SMM's Price Assessment As a professional market price assessment agency, SMM always adheres to the principles of neutrality, objectivity, and fairness. SMM's price assessment methodology strictly follows the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) "Principles for Financial Benchmarks" and is subject to audits by independent third-party audit firms. In terms of internal governance, SMM has established a comprehensive firewall system to ensure that personnel and management involved in the price assessment process do not hold any related futures or spot positions, thereby eliminating conflicts of interest at an institutional level. SMM also has no history of any penalties from securities regulatory authorities for violations. We consistently maintain an open attitude towards market supervision based on facts. VI. Appeal to the Public SMM strongly condemns the recent malicious fabrication and dissemination of false information in the market, which damages SMM's commercial reputation and attempts to disrupt the order of the futures and spot markets, and has initiated legal proceedings to protect its rights. Currently, SMM is comprehensively and continuously collecting and preserving evidence related to the infringements. For suspected infringing acts, the Company will take all legal measures, including but not limited to reporting to relevant regulatory authorities and filing complaints with relevant online platforms, to resolutely pursue the legal liability of the infringing parties. SMM reserves the right to pursue all legal consequences against the relevant responsible parties. We once again call on all market participants to enhance their legal awareness and professional discernment capabilities, obtain information from authoritative channels, analyze the market rationally, resolutely resist and refuse to spread any unverified and unfounded rumors, and jointly maintain a fair, orderly, and healthy development environment for the industry chain. SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Dec 26, 2025
Dec 26, 2025 17:30