It was learned that as of March 26, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 16,600 mt, down 6,800 mt WoW. This week, lead prices remained in the doldrums. Some large downstream enterprises purchased as needed, while suppliers were also actively making shipments. During the week, spot order quotations in major producing areas were at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory, and in-factory inventory at smelters continued to decline. However, it is worth noting that more secondary lead smelters in north China resumed or increased production, and with imported lead flowing in, supply in the spot market was relatively ample, so the decline in inventory at primary lead smelters may slow down later.

SMM News, March 27: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,390 yuan/mt during the day. Boosted by broad-based gains across nonferrous metals, the price continued to fluctuate upward, hitting a high of 16,570 yuan/mt before pulling back somewhat. It then consolidated narrowly in the 16,520-16,555 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.58%. On the supply side, deliverable primary lead inventory for primary lead fell MoM, and reduced circulating cargo supported premiums in quotations; secondary lead smelters mostly held strong wait-and-see sentiment, with few spot quotes, while limited cargo was quoted at slight premiums. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment was mixed, with both wait-and-see sentiment and purchasing as needed, and transactions were average. As the resumption of production at secondary lead smelters accelerates, expectations for increased spot secondary lead supply are strong, but downstream purchases for rigid demand remain limited, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

SMM News, March 27: Lead prices operated at low levels this week, and secondary lead smelters generally lowered their purchase prices for scrap batteries. Today’s average purchase prices were: waste e-bike battery at 9,775 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,075 yuan/mt. Quotes in the recycling market diverged, with some traders raising prices to 9,450 yuan/mt to attract cargoes, squeezing profits, while others lowered prices to 9,250 yuan/mt, with recycling volume constrained. Affected by sluggish downstream consumption, relatively low retirements, weaker prices, and end-users holding back cargoes, recycling volume this week was half the normal level. After the Qingming Festival, the pace of smelter resumptions is expected to gradually accelerate, and demand for raw material procurement is likely to be released. In addition, with raw material inventories at some smelters still at low levels, this is expected to provide some support for scrap battery prices. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to lead price trends and developments in smelter production and maintenance. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

This week (March 20-26, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 62.81, up 0.22 percentage points WoW from the previous week. This week, a small-to-medium-sized smelter in Henan entered a routine 10-15-day maintenance cycle, leading to a slight decline in the operating rate in Henan. In Hunan, a medium-sized smelter that had previously not yet reached full production slightly ramped up output this week, contributing the main increase in production; smelter production in Yunnan remained stable. In addition, some small smelters in Yunnan and Hunan still had no expectations of resuming production for the time being due to raw materials and downstream orders, among other factors.

SMM News, March 27: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,906.5/mt. It edged up slightly in early trading and, after hitting a high of $1,908/mt, fluctuated downward, with the price center continuing to move lower to a low of $1,883.5/mt. It then rebounded quickly and fluctuated rangebound within the $1,889.5-1,897.5/mt range, finally closing at $1,890/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $21.5/mt, or 1.12%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,390 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly to a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 16,450 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,405-16,435 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. On the supply side, quotes from suppliers at primary lead smelters were relatively firm, and some were quoted at premiums due to reduced spot circulation. This week, inventory of delivery-brand primary lead fell by 6,800 mt WoW, which was expected to provide some support for primary lead prices. Most secondary lead smelters did not offer quotes, while some cargoes were quoted ex-works at a premium of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. This week, the resumption pace at secondary lead smelters accelerated, with the operating rate rebounding 3.69% WoW, production increasing by 3,090 mt, and finished product inventories also accumulating on a weekly basis. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment diverged, with both wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts and purchase as needed coexisting, and overall market transactions were average. SMM expected lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.