Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,972.5/mt. Due to concerns over ore supply triggered by energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt. It moved sideways near the close and ultimately settled at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking five consecutive bearish sessions. This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery. Suppliers continued to ship lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, breaking through the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in the off-season, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, after SHFE lead surged significantly last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses increased. It is expected that lead ingot social inventory will maintain an upward trend before delivery is completed, with obvious resistance for lead prices. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 12: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,977/mt, briefly touched a low of $1,970.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating upward; after entering the European session, the rally remained firm, touching a high of $1,990/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,988.5/mt, up 0.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,710 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated downward to probe a low of 16,590 yuan/mt, recovered slightly near the close, and finally settled at 16,655 yuan/mt, down 0.12%, marking a four-day losing streak. This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract entered the delivery period. Suppliers increasingly shipped to delivery warehouses, and lead ingots were transferred from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The continued accumulation of visible inventory of lead ingots will keep weighing on lead prices. Meanwhile, the concentrated production cuts and shutdowns among secondary lead enterprises became the main driver of supply reduction this month. Combined with the closure of the import window and losses in secondary lead production providing price support, after the delivery-related factors are resolved, lead prices will need to await new influencing factors to emerge. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 11: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,705 yuan/mt intraday. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,680-16,730 yuan/mt. Affected by relatively loose primary lead supply coupled with weak downstream consumption, lead prices pulled back under pressure near the end of the session, hitting a low of 16,655 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises led to regional tightness in lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase, resulting in relatively loose overall supply. Bullish and bearish factors were intertwined on the supply side. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market remained unchanged, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 11: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,958/mt. As tight supply of lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market persisted, providing strong support for lead prices, it rebounded during the European session, touching a high of $1,979/mt before closing at $1,977.5/mt, down 0.99%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,740 yuan/mt. Due to weak consumption in the spot market, lead prices were in the doldrums, hitting a low of 16,665 yuan/mt before closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, down 0.03%, forming a small bearish candlestick with no upper or lower shadows. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remained in the off-season, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, and regional supply of lead ingots was tight, while primary lead production was stable to slightly higher with relatively ample supply. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating supplies. Lead prices are expected to have limited discounts (against SMM #1 lead). Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China's April CPI YoY, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, and US April retail sales MoM. Additionally, US-Iran peace talks have been fraught with twists and turns—Iranian media claimed the US violated the ceasefire agreement, Iranian armed forces struck US warships, and talks are currently stalled, posing significant macro uncertainty risks. LME lead side, ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango, with another "one-day" backwardation structure appearing during the week. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding ex-China geopolitical factors remains high, and their market impact warrants continued attention. LME lead is expected to trade within $1,950-2,000/mt next week. SHFE lead side, next week the SHFE lead 2605 contract enters delivery, with more suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses. Lead ingots will transfer from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the continued buildup in visible lead ingot inventory will keep dragging on lead prices. Meanwhile, concentrated production cuts and shutdowns among secondary lead enterprises have become the main driver of supply reduction this month. Additionally, the closure of the import window and secondary lead losses provide price support. After delivery-related factors are resolved, lead prices will need new catalysts to determine direction. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade within 16,550-16,950 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,450-16,650 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in off-season mode, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises are expected to resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, leading to regionally tight lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable to slightly higher with relatively ample supply. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating supply. Lead prices are unlikely to see significant discounts (vs. SMM #1 lead). .