Next week, several key economic data will be released, mainly including China's official manufacturing PMI for June, the US June ADP employment figure, the US June unemployment rate, and the US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls. Recently, US-Iran diplomacy achieved a phased breakthrough, with both sides signing a memorandum of understanding, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and the recovery of crude oil and other supplies. However, conflicts along the Lebanon-Israel border have been recurring, and the ceasefire agreement remains fragile, necessitating cautious optimism. Additionally, short-term inflation data and hawkish signals pushed up expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, while market views diverged and conflicted, requiring closer attention to next week's economic data outcomes. As for LME lead, affected by the lifting of shipping restrictions in the Middle East and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, market bearish sentiment surged, and LME lead prices fell continuously, nearly breaking below $1,900/mt. While lead prices were declining, the LME Cash-3M contango widened, with the latest quote at -$33.6/mt. Notably, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for four consecutive weeks, with total inventories dropping below 300,000 mt, the latest figure at 297,500 mt. It is expected that short-term macro risk factors still exist, and fundamental factors present contradictions. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with LME lead forecast to trade between $1,875 and $1,945/mt. As for SHFE lead, entering July, with the semiannual capital repatriation factor removed, upstream and downstream enterprises will resume regular trading. Meanwhile, supplies of lead concentrates and scrap batteries remain constrained, with secondary lead enterprises incurring significant losses. Production resumptions have been delayed, and there are additional production cuts. Coupled with the persistent inversion between secondary and primary lead prices, these factors will provide support for lead prices in the short term. However, we also need to be vigilant about macro bearish factors, with lead prices expected to be in the doldrums, while watching the lead ingot import window. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 15,950 and 16,400 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,950-16,250 yuan/mt. Before the end of June, some large downstream enterprises will close accounts and take inventory, which will continue to disrupt trading activity for lead ingots. Once July arrives, the lead market will return to normal trading. In some regions, transactions for primary lead at a significant contango (against SMM#Pb) are expected to decrease, or the contango will narrow. On the secondary lead side, constrained by losses, smelters' shipments are limited, and some enterprises already have inventory buildup. If arrivals of imported lead increase to supplement supply, it cannot be ruled out that secondary refined lead may turn to widen the contango.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Secondary Lead Inverted by 100 Yuan from Primary Lead, Sign of Lead Price Stop Falling?] Recently, lead prices fell continuously, losses for secondary lead enterprises widened, and shipments decreased significantly. In contrast, in the primary lead sector, lead smelters and suppliers were generally selling actively...

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Lead Prices Will Be in the Doldrums Amid Bearish Macro Sentiment] Recently, multiple macro events have dominated the trading direction of base metals. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes strengthened, and the US dollar index hit a new high; progress in Middle East peace talks and a plunge in crude oil prices, to some extent, signal that metals......

According to SMM understanding, on June 23, 2026, the Hezhang County People's Government and Guizhou Dingshengxin Zinc & Germanium New Materials Co., Ltd. officially signed the "Investment Contract for the Green Manufacturing Project of Guizhou Dingshengxin Zinc & Germanium New Materials." The project has a total approved investment of 5.5 billion yuan and is designed to produce 220,000 mt of zinc ingots per year (including 100,000 mt of high-end zinc alloy new materials for die casting and galvanizing), 80,000 mt of lead ingots, along with the recovery of rare and precious metals such as germanium ingots, silver ingots, and refined cadmium, as well as a supporting sulfuric acid production system with an annual output of approximately 580,000 mt of sulfuric acid.

SMM June 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. In the morning session, prices fluctuated slightly around the intraday moving average, then weakened and fluctuated downward, dipping to an intraday low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, futures gradually recovered and rebounded, with prices steadily approaching the average line. Near the end of the session, the contract moved sideways in a narrow range of 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt and finally settled at 16,385 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.4%. The SHFE lead 2607 contract recorded a trading volume of 29,824 lots and open interest of 43,541 lots. The SHFE lead 2608 contract recorded a trading volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract officially rolled over to the 2608 contract. Currently, primary and secondary lead smelters in China are entering a concentrated maintenance period, creating strong market expectations of a contraction in lead raw material supply, which provides upward support to the futures market. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, generating short-term restocking demand driven by rigid needs. However, at the mid-year period, large downstream battery enterprises are entering the semi-annual financial closing and inventory check phase, which will temporarily slow down their concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. The weak supply-demand situation makes it difficult to persistently boost lead prices upward. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: All data, except publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communications, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.