It is understood that as of August 13, in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 20,900 mt, down 1,300 mt WoW. As some primary lead smelters underwent maintenance, regional supply of lead ingot tightened somewhat, and with some cargo moving into the market, smelters' in-factory inventory pressure eased. However, lead prices trended upward overall this week; downstream enterprises were wary of high prices and stayed on the sidelines, making cautious purchases. Spot market transactions were lackluster, and inventory destocking at primary lead smelters was limited. In addition, as lead prices rebounded, losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrowed, and some enterprises showed signs of resuming production, which diverted some downstream just-in-time procurement and also somewhat constrained inventory destocking at primary lead smelters.

Next week, macro data will mainly include China's July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's July value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, and the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ended August 1, among others. In addition, the July PPI YoY growth released this week narrowed to 4.7%, and market expectations for rate hikes by the US Fed within the year cooled somewhat. Next week, close attention will need to be paid to the minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meeting to further observe its subsequent monetary policy direction. For LME lead, *LME lead inventories fell for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 39,200 mt, providing some support for lead prices. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M remained at a discount, with the discount narrowing slightly this week to -$43.56/mt, indicating that ex-China spot demand was still relatively weak, which constrained further gains in lead prices. In addition, Middle East peace talks still faced significant uncertainty, while expectations for ex-China economic recovery continued. Lead prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs, and LME lead will trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. For SHFE lead, next week will be the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Before delivery, lead ingot inventories are expected to build as scheduled, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance will increase at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late August, mainly at delivery brand enterprises, and market supply is expected to tighten. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, and downstream enterprises' just-in-time procurement demand was moderate, which can be seen as a neutral factor. Lead prices are expected to rebound after testing lows, with SHFE lead trading in the range of 15,750-16,150 yuan/mt. Spot Lead Price Forecast: 15,550-15,850 yuan/mt. Consumption side, as downstream enterprises' high-temperature holidays end, some enterprises will resume normal production, and regular procurement demand is expected to rebound, easing the pressure from lead ingot inventory buildup after delivery to some extent. Supply side, both increases and decreases are expected to coexist. Maintenance at primary lead enterprises will bring a certain reduction in supply, and with smelters holding prices firm when selling, spot lead discounts will widen only to a limited extent. Meanwhile, as losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrow, production resumption expectations will strengthen, and market supply may increase somewhat; secondary refined lead is expected to continue trading at a discount.

SMM, August 14: As of August 13, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 29,800 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW. This week, some smelters resumed production and ramped up, leading to a partial release of lead ingot output; however, batteries remained in the consumption off-season, downstream users maintained only just-in-time procurement, spot secondary refined lead transactions were weak, and output absorption was limited, driving a slight buildup in plant inventories. Looking ahead to next week, supply-side growth is expected; however, if lead prices remain in the doldrums, some enterprises may still cut production under pressure from losses, which will constrain further rises in inventories. End-use demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and downstream large-scale stockpiling has not yet begun. Secondary lead finished product inventories are expected to maintain their upward trend, but the extent of inventory buildup will be limited; it is necessary to track smelters' actual production pace and downstream purchasing follow-through.

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: LME Lead Center Moved Lower, SHFE Lead Weakened Under Pressure from Inventory Buildup] SMM, August 14: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,890 yuan/mt. Affected by lead ingot inventory buildup, SHFE lead drifted lower after the open......

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Inventory Buildup Ahead of Lead Ingot Delivery, Supply-Side Increases and Decreases Coexist, Limiting Upside in Lead Prices] US July PPI YoY growth narrowed to 4.7%, with lower energy costs as the main driver, and the market was no longer fully pricing in a rate hike by the US Fed this year. Recently, as delivery neared, suppliers accelerated the transfer of lead ingots to delivery warehouses...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Tailwinds Boost Lead Prices; Watch for Risks of a Retreat After Rapid Rise Amid Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers] The macro front saw mixed signals. A weaker US dollar lifted base metals broadly, and lead prices may continue to consolidate at highs. Fundamentals side, supply-side expectations for production cuts remain...