Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. In initial trading, prices consolidated repeatedly, hitting an intraday high of $1,898/mt. Subsequently, the bulls’ upward momentum faded, and prices drifted lower. During the European session, the decline accelerated, with prices touching a low of $1,871/mt. Towards the end of the session, prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, eventually settling at $1,872/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down $20.5/mt, a decline of 1.08%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt in early trading, the bulls lacked momentum, and bears entered to push prices lower. The price continued to pull back, hitting a low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, some buying support led to a minor rebound, and it eventually settled at 15,975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest saw a slight increase of 238 lots. The trend was a retreat after a rapid rise, showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Trump disclosed a 927-page fundraising financial report exceeding $1 billion. The US Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is still too high and may require considering interest rate hikes. Japan stated that no intervention was made in the foreign exchange market from April 28 to May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. An MIIT official: Step up efforts in tackling key materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory. Spot fundamentals: The SHFE lead center shifted further downward, and in early trading it once briefly broke below the 16,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers showed widening divergence in selling, with some raising their offer premiums, while others kept selling at parity. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters also diverged, with regional price spreads narrowing. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, and quotations were scarce. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few at premiums of 100 yuan/mt, but there were also some discounted cargoes. Today was the last trading day of end-June, and downstream enterprises showed pronounced risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment. Some were looking to buy at lower prices on demand, and trading activity in the spot order market improved slightly. Inventory: As of June 30, LME lead inventory increased by 375 mt to 297,375 mt. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. Lead Price Forecast Today: Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to weigh on lead prices from a macro perspective; although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the Q2 consumption off-season outside China brought demand-side bearishness. China's primary smelters cut production slightly due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters' operating rates declined, dragged by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, resulting in a market with weak supply and demand. Downstream maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only making on-demand purchases and buying the dip. In the short term, lead prices are expected to consolidate largely in the doldrums.

In June 2026, SMM secondary refined lead production rose slightly by 2.23% MoM, but dropped sharply by 31.2% from the 2026 peak of 282,000 mt in January. The industry’s production center shifted lower continuously in Q2. SMM’s weekly operating rate for secondary lead across four provinces hovered in the range of 28.4%–29.7% throughout the month, staying well below the normal reasonable range for a prolonged period.

SMM June 30 News: During the day, the SHFE lead 2608 contract was under pressure overall, opening at 16,134 yuan/mt. After the opening, prices weakened quickly in early trading, and the contract remained in the doldrums throughout the day. In the late session, it dipped to an intraday low of 15,925 yuan/mt and closed at 15,995 yuan/mt, registering a small bearish candlestick, down 235 yuan/mt, or 1.45%. Trading volume continued to expand during the day, with activity picking up significantly in early trading, cooling slightly in the afternoon, and overall volume staying steady. The intraday moving average capped the futures throughout the session, and bulls lacked strong upward momentum. Currently, the primary lead smelting sector is weighed by both tightening ore supply and weakening lead prices. This month, some smelters have already carried out production cuts or halted operations. Secondary lead enterprises are constrained by insufficient supply of scrap battery raw materials, and the number of smelters cutting or halting production continues to rise. The pattern of synchronized weakening in both supply and demand has continued to suppress lead prices. Coupled with the persistent accumulation of social inventory of lead ingots, the current inventory level has reached a new high since June. Looking ahead to the lead price trend in July, the actual recovery of downstream end-use consumption will be a key variable to watch. Data Source Statement: Apart from publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only. They do not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Market Update] Lead-acid battery end-use consumption is sluggish, with weak purchasing demand for lead ingots and lead alloys. Some refined lead and alloy smelters have cut or halted production; meanwhile, domestic secondary crude lead smelters are under sales pressure. Going forward, attention should be paid to the opening of the import window; if imported crude lead flows in significantly, the sales pressure on domestic secondary crude lead smelters will intensify.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,903.5/mt. During the Asian session, funds steadily pushed up futures, with prices drifting higher continuously and reaching an intraday high of $1,914/mt. In the European session, bullish momentum faded quickly, and futures came under pressure, drifting lower in a continuous decline and hitting bottom at a low of $1,890/mt. Near the close, losses narrowed slightly, and it finally settled at $1,892.5/mt, down $9/mt, or 0.47%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,180 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to a low of 16,125 yuan/mt in early trading, then bulls quickly fought back, pushing prices to drift higher to 16,200 yuan/mt. After the spike, upward momentum faded quickly, and futures remained under pressure below the intraday moving average, drifting lower to finally settle at 16,130 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.37%. Macro front: The US Supreme Court blocked Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. Trump: Will immediately take action on Fed Governor Cook’s eligibility to serve. Iran: The current focus is on implementing the memorandum of understanding, and no talks with the US will be held in the near term. China and the EU officially confirmed the establishment of a China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanism. Chinese air conditioners sold out in Europe, with Midea doubling sales and Gree fully sold out. Starting July 1, nearly 20 semiconductor companies initiated a new round of price hikes with concentrated adjustments. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and suppliers sold at prevailing rates. Price premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were basically flat WoW. EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted lower in the south and higher in the north, with mainstream producing area quotations ranging from a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices and were less willing to quote; some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an EXW basis, remaining in an inverted state versus primary lead. For downstream enterprises, demand was limited at month-end. Most enterprises only made just-in-time procurement or used long-term contracts, with limited inquiries and thin transactions in the spot market. Inventory: On June 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 450 mt to 297,000 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions rose by 3,700 mt to 71,200 mt. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, the secondary lead supply side has seen a tug-of-war between longs and shorts: on one hand, several previously maintenance-hit secondary lead smelters have delayed their production resumptions; on the other hand, some smelters have gradually resumed production, with supply increases and decreases offsetting each other. The demand side is visibly under pressure, with a slow downstream consumption recovery pace and low willingness among enterprises to purchase and pick up goods. Combined with the dual impact of the traditional off-season and high temperatures, many downstream processing enterprises plan to halt production for holidays, further dragging down end-use demand. Currently, lead prices remain on a downward trajectory, but primary and secondary lead prices have inverted, coupled with scrap battery raw material costs staying high, providing bottom support for lead prices.

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,913/mt. Prices continued to decline during Asian trading hours, then moved sideways in a narrow range of $1,903.5-1,906/mt. Entering European and US sessions, inflows drove a rebound in futures. The price climbed to an intraday high of $1,916.5/mt, but heavy selling pressure above and insufficient bullish momentum led to a downward reversal after the spike, hitting a low of $1,901/mt. It finally settled at $1,901.5/mt, down $11 or 0.58%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,220 yuan/mt. It drifted lower in early trading, gradually breaking below the daily moving average support to a low of 16,135 yuan/mt. After a brief sideways consolidation in the mid-to-late session, it recovered some losses, finally settling at 16,170 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 85 yuan/mt or 0.52%. On the macro front: US media reported that the US and Iran agreed to halt mutual attacks and will meet in Qatar this Tuesday. Putin stated that Russia proposes both sides stop strikes on each other's deep territory targets. Fed Chairman Vause appointed two senior central bank economists as advisors. Nasdaq Exchange: SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, 2026. Total investment in key energy projects and new business models under the 15th Five-Year Plan will exceed 200 trillion yuan. National Energy Administration: Future western regions need to export products and Tokens outwards. TFC Communication: The tight supply contradiction for individual materials will gradually ease starting in H2. "National subsidies" continue! The third batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds has been allocated. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead stopped falling and saw a relative rebound, while market circulation in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was limited with few quotations. Elsewhere, EXW supply from primary lead smelters was ample. In southern China, shipments were still at discounts, with mainstream production area quotations at premiums of -80 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Some premiums of 100 yuan/mt still existed in certain regions. In the secondary lead market, smelters' sentiment to hold back from selling eased slightly, with secondary refined lead quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. As month-end approached and new long-term contracts began, downstream enterprise purchases were limited. Apart from some enterprises buying on a dip for rigid demand, most maintained a wait-and-see stance, resulting in sluggish transactions in the spot market. Inventories: On June 26, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,075 mt to 297,450 mt. On June 25, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions fell by 1,300 mt to 67,500 mt. Lead Price Forecast Today: Production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters continued to increase this week. For primary lead, multiple smelters in Henan and Yunnan that previously underwent maintenance have resumed production one after another, pushing the industry operating rate up MoM. Supply side, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. As month-end approaches on the consumption side, large downstream enterprises have entered the mid-year account closing and centralized stocktaking phase, generally suspending raw material procurement, with some orders delayed to July for execution. Fundamentals lack strong support. On the sentiment side, close attention should be paid to the fluctuation impact on the overall nonferrous metals sector brought by the easing of US-Iran tensions. Overall, in the short term, lead prices are likely to mainly trade in the doldrums.