SMM, March 19: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,571 yuan/mt. Prices edged up slightly in early trading, but upward momentum was limited and failed to surpass the night session high. In the afternoon, affected by the broad decline in base metals, lead prices quickly fell to 16,405 yuan/mt. Although SHFE lead prices rebound slightly toward the close, the rebound was limited, and it finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 235 yuan/mt, or 1.41%. Supply side, secondary lead smelters showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, with limited spot order shipments and overall tight supply. Demand side, downstream battery enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, showing clear resistance to high premium quotations, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Spot order transactions were sluggish, with only long-term contracts supporting a small amount of demand. Overall, the cost side of smelters still provided some support, but weak downstream demand constrained upside room. Lead prices were unlikely to see a trending market in the short term and would most likely maintain sideways movement within a range. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 19: Today, electric lead polar plates (internal formation) were quoted at 17,700-17,950 yuan/mt. Demand in the storage battery market was stable, with some large enterprises seeing moderate orders and production line operating rates nearing full capacity. However, some small and medium-sized enterprises said end-use consumption was average, and battery operating rates were maintained at 70-80%. In addition, lead prices have fluctuated significantly recently, and raw material lead was purchased as needed.

Russia’s Solikamsk Magnesium Works recently launched industrialised production of magnesium alloys containing rare earth elements such as neodymium, cerium, and lanthanum. The products combine lightweight properties with high strength and are mainly targeted at sectors including aerospace and automotive manufacturing. The plant accounts for 100% of Russia’s rare earth compound production and 75% of its magnesium capacity, and this capacity expansion further consolidates its position in the strategic metals sector. Meanwhile, the “magnesium-based hydrogen slurry” technology developed by Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute has sparked controversy. Independent analysis indicated that the technology’s overall system efficiency is only about 10, its energy density is comparable to that of lithium batteries, its cost is far higher than expectations, and its recycling chain has yet to form a closed loop. It is only suitable for demonstration scenarios at the hundred-watt level and is unlikely to achieve commercial application. The two pieces of news reflect the different technological pathways and industrialisation prospects of magnesium-based materials in high-end manufacturing and energy storage.

SMM, March 19: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,928.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,938/mt. It then moved in a narrow range of $1,926-1,935/mt as bulls and bears were evenly matched. Entering the European session, bears took the lead, and LME lead began to fluctuate downward, falling to a low of $1,906/mt, before consolidating in a narrow range of $1,906-1,911/mt. Near the close, LME lead edged up slightly to settle at $1,913/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices surged to a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward. Although prices rebounded slightly intraday, the rebound was weak, and lead prices again came under pressure and pulled back, fluctuating rangebound within 16,555-16,590 yuan/mt and touching a low of 16,555 yuan/mt during the period. It finally closed at 16,585 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.39%. China mine side, lead concentrate TCs remained weak, with some smelters operating at insufficient rates and market supply staying tight. On the imported ore side, the import window opened and expectations for price hikes emerged, but enterprises showed low willingness to pay, limiting additional volumes. Primary lead: inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Secondary lead: as losses widened, most secondary lead enterprises stayed on the sidelines and were reluctant to sell, tightening effective supply in the market overall. Downstream battery plants: after restocking demand was met, the procurement pace slowed down, and downstream demand remained weak. Overall, the market still showed a pattern of weak supply and weak demand. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and close attention should be paid to changes in secondary lead operating rates in late March and shifts in downstream purchasing strength.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Weak Supply and Demand Dominated Magnesium Price Trends, with Structural Divergence Across Segments] This week, trends across various products in China’s magnesium industry chain diverged, while the overall market maintained a core tone of stability with rangebound fluctuations. The stalemate in market supply and demand became more pronounced, with insufficient momentum for a unilateral market move. The upstream dolomite market remained stable. Although a top-tier enterprise in the Wutai region suspended production, ample raw material inventory in place and timely capacity replenishment in major producing areas, coupled with the steady pace of just-in-time procurement by primary magnesium enterprises, kept prices stable without fluctuations. As the core product, magnesium ingot prices in China’s main producing areas consolidated at high levels, and mainstream transaction prices remained stable. Market transactions showed mediocre performance, producers had strong sentiment to hold back sales, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, quotations fluctuated rangebound. On the foreign trade side, FOB quotations loosened slightly. As ocean freight rates pulled back, inquiries from outside China recovered somewhat, and there were expectations for more long-term orders. Supported by raw materials and boosted by incoming foreign trade orders, the magnesium powder market saw firm quotations and held up well. Industry operating rates gradually recovered in March, and support from the demand side became increasingly evident. Magnesium alloy market prices overall remained stable. On the supply side, with top-tier enterprises resuming operations and newly added capacity gradually coming online and releasing volume, downstream buyers mainly focused on just-in-time restocking, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain in the doldrums going forward. Looking across the entire industry chain, there have been no major changes in current market fundamentals, and in the short term, the market will still likely be dominated by steady fluctuations and localized marginal adjustments.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Pulled Back Significantly, Downstream Inquiries and Procurement Decreased] Affected by fluctuations in futures prices, confidence in the Pr-Nd oxide market dropped sharply. Traders proactively sold off cargoes at low prices, causing transaction prices in the Pr-Nd oxide market to fall rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had already pulled back to 690,000-700,000 yuan/mt.