Next week, there will be limited macroeconomic data releases, mainly including the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US and the final March one-year inflation expectations for the US. At present, key events outside China remain the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as well as the views of representatives from various countries on global trade development at the upcoming 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). LME lead, markets outside China will continue to be affected by geopolitical issues, with damage to the economic environment and prolonged logistics cycles dragging LME lead lower consecutively to a near one-year low. However, we need to note that the SHFE/LME price ratio widened, allowing more imported lead to flow into the Chinese market, while spot cargo availability in Southeast Asia tightened and spot premiums rose, with LME Cash-3M contango narrowing to -$41.44/mt. Next week, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices probing lower and then rebounding after macro headwinds are fully priced in. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,840-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, dragged down by the decline in overseas lead prices, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened and expectations for lead ingot imports increased, especially against the backdrop of China’s lead ingot social inventory standing at a 16-month high, sending lead prices lower in succession. At the same time, we need to note that inventory at domestic smelters remained on a declining trend, losses in secondary lead widened, and the inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices may become a factor stopping lead prices from falling. In addition, downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline in social inventory. If destocking materializes, lead prices may stop falling and rebound. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,100-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,100-16,550 yuan/mt. For primary lead and secondary lead, supply continued to rise as smelters resumed operations after maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' short-term restocking on dips may facilitate destocking, but from April to May is the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market, and the sustainability of downstream enterprise procurement is limited, so spot lead premiums are expected to struggle to continue rising.

It is learned that as of March 19, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 23,400 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW. Recently, production at primary lead smelters has risen steadily, with relatively ample circulating supply, and most transactions in the spot market were concluded at discounts. During the week, lead prices fell more than expected, and downstream enterprises gradually made purchases at lower prices, further reducing smelters' in-factory inventory. Meanwhile, there were differences in supply between the northern and southern markets. After lead prices fell, smelters in the more south China regions showed significantly stronger sentiment to hold prices firm than those in the northern market. As of March 20, spot order quotations for primary lead were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price.

According to customs data, lead concentrate imports in February 2026 were 124,580 mt in physical content, up 3.8% MoM and up 26.4% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February reached 252,241 mt in physical content, up 14% YoY on a cumulative basis. Over the same period, silver concentrate imports were about 148,600 mt in physical content, down 17% MoM and down 8% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February were 328,600 mt in physical content, down 1.27% YoY on a cumulative basis.

SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 20: LME lead opened at $1,905/mt this week and fluctuated lower in early trading under the influence of sentiment. It then climbed to a high of $1,938/mt supported by buying interest. In the latter part of mid-week, bullish momentum weakened, and amid weaker macro conditions and a weaker base metals sector, lead prices fell again and touched a low of $1,872.5/mt. They then rebounded slightly and consolidated toward the end of the week, finally closing at $1,881.5/mt, down $23.5 from the beginning of the week, a decline of 1.23%. The most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,585 yuan/mt this week. In early trading, bears entered the market, sending prices quickly down to 16,245 yuan/mt, after which it fluctuated at lows. Mid-week, as bears exited the market, SHFE lead prices rebounded to a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, but under pressure from slack spot supply and demand and bearish macro sentiment, it struggled to rebound and its center moved lower. Toward the end of the week, bears continued to exert pressure, and lead futures remained weak, finally closing at 16,290 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan on the week, a decline of 1.9%. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

By late March, the consumption driven by dealers' customary post-holiday restocking in the lead-acid battery market had been largely released. Meanwhile, end-use consumption in the e-bike and automotive battery markets was generally mediocre, especially as the impact of the new national standard for e-bikes disrupted supporting orders for new vehicles, and some lead-acid battery enterprises only maintained production based on sales. Lead prices fell this week. In the initial stage, downstream enterprises restocked at lower prices based on demand, but after lead prices fell again in the second half of the week, some enterprises became more cautious in procuring raw lead materials.