[SMM Steel] According to World Steel Association (worldsteel) data released on March 25, 2026, global crude steel production in February totaled 141.8 million tons, a 2.2% decrease year-on-year. For the first two months of 2026, total global output reached approximately 298 million tons, down 1.5% compared to the same period last year.

[SMM Magnesium Express] China's magnesium product exports totaled 72,700 tons in Jan-Feb 2026, up 3,400 tons year-on-year. January exports reached 40,300 tons, up 6% YoY and 4.2% MoM. February exports stood at 32,300 tons, up 3.7% YoY but down 1.96% MoM due to the Lunar New Year holiday, remaining above the same period last year. The year got off to a positive start.

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China stood at 81.51% last week (March 13–March 19), marking the fourth consecutive week of MoM improvement since the Chinese New Year, with industry sentiment continuing to recover. The strong rebound in the operating rate in this round was mainly driven by two factors: first, the relatively weak operating rates of secondary copper rod enterprises, coupled with the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap remaining at a relatively low level, significantly weakened the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap, leaving more market room for copper cathode rod; second, improving orders for downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire boosted a faster drawdown in enterprises' finished product inventories. As copper prices broke above low-level support, downstream procurement sentiment continued to heat up, and new orders for copper cathode rod enterprises showed a pattern of concentrated volume release. Most enterprises reported that their production pace could no longer keep up with shipment progress, and some had already begun to proactively control the pace of taking orders to ensure contract fulfillment. From the downstream industry perspective, wire and cable as well as enamelled wire enterprises also benefited from the pullback in copper prices, with operating rates steadily rebounding, further boosting demand for copper rod. Inventory side, although the pullback in copper prices boosted enterprises' willingness to restock, constrained by limited room for capacity release, enterprises did not excessively stockpile on dips and mostly maintained normal production raw material reserves. Meanwhile, due to continued downstream pick-up of goods, enterprises' capacity was unable to fully match order demand, accelerating the drawdown of finished product inventories. Enterprises Raise Processing Fees and Increase Margin Requirements to Control Risks After copper prices pulled back sharply, downstream purchase willingness increased significantly, and order concentration rose markedly. To reasonably control the pace of taking orders, some enterprises urgently raised processing fees. At the same time, affected by the increased uncertainty in the pace of cargo pick-up caused by concentrated downstream order placement, as well as the continued decline in copper prices, enterprises became more concerned about the default risk of earlier high-priced orders, and some enterprises simultaneously increased margin ratios to strengthen risk control. Looking ahead, with copper prices rising at present, downstream procurement sentiment has clearly weakened. To ensure stable deliveries, copper cathode rod enterprises are expected to maintain relatively high operating loads. Although rigid demand is gradually being fully released, against the backdrop of low finished product inventories, enterprises will still maintain high operating rates to replenish inventory. Accordingly, SMM expects the operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises to fluctuate at highs in March.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).