On Thursday, April 24, Peru's Las Bambas copper mine reported one of its best quarterly performances in history for Q1, benefiting from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. According to a report by MMG, the Chinese-controlled Las Bambas copper mine in the Apurímac region produced 95,728 mt of copper in Q1 this year, up from 56,025 mt in the same period last year. The ore grade increased to 0.88% in Q1, compared to 0.54% in Q1 2024, while the copper recovery rate rose from 86.2% to 88.1%. The Ferrobamba pit and the new Chalcobamba pit maintained stable operations, with Las Bambas processing 20.2 million mt of ore in Q1, the highest quarterly level on record. The company also stated that it currently has 155 units of trucks transporting copper concentrates, up from the previous 125 units, enabling faster exports and inventory reduction. Due to the optimization of the Chalcobamba pit, Las Bambas has been operating at full capacity since Q4 2024, which will be the company's mid-term focus. The production guidance for this year is 360,000-400,000 mt, but it is expected to be revised upward following the Q1 performance. MMG stated, "Following the strong operational performance in Q1 and annualized production trending toward the upper end of the range, the company is evaluating the possibility of raising the lower end of its production forecast. If social unrest in Peru does not cause significant disruptions, Las Bambas is expected to achieve the high end of the forecast range in 2025." Las Bambas produced 322,912 mt of copper last year. The mine has faced strong community opposition in the past, particularly along the routes used to transport concentrates.

Market Sentiment: Copper prices continued to surge, led by US copper, with the COMEX copper weighted index hitting a record high last week. The market's focus on the US-LME price spread shifted to far-month contracts, and the main contract on the US market has not yet broken last year's high. On tariffs, the market is turning its attention to news about reciprocal tariffs from the newly appointed US president at the beginning of next month. In terms of indicators, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and retail sales in the US remained weak, but housing starts and industrial production showed moderate performance. The US Fed, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, raised inflation expectations, lowered economic growth forecasts, and predicted two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed has revised down the US economic growth forecast for this year from 2.1% to 1.7%. Meanwhile, the OECD has also revised down global GDP growth, with a significant downward revision for Canada. In terms of macro and funding sentiment, the current stage is more prone to trading the "inflation" side, with significant attention on the momentum of gold prices reaching new highs and whether silver prices will catch up. This week, the focus is on the preliminary March manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders, and February PCE data from major economies. Domestic Supply and Demand: Upstream, the TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline, with Mysteel's sampled TC dropping to -20.28 $/dmt. The market is paying attention to the entry of copper concentrates from Indonesia and Panama. In terms of scale, both regions imported over 650,000 mt of refined copper into China in 2023, accounting for approximately 2.5% of total domestic concentrate imports. The proportion of Indonesian concentrates flowing into China is low, with some also going to Japan and South Korea, but a large proportion of Panamanian copper concentrates once flowed into China. In April, leading smelting capacities are undergoing maintenance, which may lead to observable changes in TC. On the consumption side, high copper prices have suppressed the operating rates of copper-related products, but the current period is in the seasonal peak season. Buying interest in the Pearl River Delta region is stronger, with Guangdong copper premiums reaching 190 yuan/mt, while Shanghai turned to parity. SMM social inventory recently decreased by 12,800 mt to 333,600 mt, 53,670 mt lower than the same period last year. Guided by the price spread, refined copper exports in January-February were 49,400 mt, while cumulative imports during the same period were 533,700 mt, a YoY decrease of 12.66%. Currently, the domestic supply and demand situation supports copper prices to continue fluctuating at high levels and testing higher. Overseas News: Peru's copper production in January increased by 7% to 216,600 mt, with output from MMG's Las Bambas mine increasing. Zambia's copper production in 2024 is expected to increase by 12% to 820,000 mt, up from 732,000 mt in 2023. Kazakhstan's refined copper production in the first two months remained stable, growing by 1%. Outlook: SHFE copper's adjustment period was short, and the correction range is likely to be limited due to buying demand during the peak season. On Monday, the SHFE copper weighted index saw an increase in positions and another rise, with technical space opening up to 82,500. The copper market is still in a "buff-stacking" upward trend, with no signs of a shift from "inflation" to "stagnation" yet.

Peru's January Copper Production Rose 7% On March 21 (Friday), the Peruvian government announced that the country's copper production in January increased by nearly 7%.

According to foreign media reports on February 14, Peru's Ministry of Mines stated on Friday that the country's copper production in 2024 decreased by 0.7% to 2,736,150 mt. This marks the first annual decline in copper output after four consecutive years of rebound. Previously, market participants had expected Peru's copper production in 2024 to remain roughly flat at around 2.8 million mt, mainly due to declining ore grades and a lack of new projects (Webstock Inc.).

As of September 1, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (Weekly) stood at $92.57/mt, $0.36/mt lower than a week earlier. During the week, traders' offers rebounded slightly, and the supply exceeded demand. The price coefficient of Cu 20% domestic ore stood at 88.5-89.5%.

Operations at Las Bambas mine returned to full production. This came after concentrate transportation at the mine resumed on March 11, 2023 (Peru time), which will help Las Bambas mine gradually reduce copper concentrate inventories.