Asian stainless steel prices held stable for a third consecutive week, with Chinese Taiwan's export quotes unchanged and Chinese export offers rebounding to steady levels after a brief dip earlier in the month. Raw material trends diverged, LME nickel prices softened while Indonesian NPI gained ground; Chinese domestic ferronickel stabilized and stainless steel futures posted a weekly gain. Trading activity remains quiet during the traditional off-season, though consumption levels are running ahead of the same period last year. A recent Middle East peace accord helped nickel prices bounce back, pointing to a firm short-term market trend.

Nickel prices showed a pattern of stopping falling and stabilizing with a fluctuating rebound this week. At the start of the week, the US-Iran peace agreement became the key variable reversing market sentiment; as the geopolitical risk premium rapidly faded, market risk appetite recovered significantly. Meanwhile, the US Fed kept rates unchanged at its June FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. Driven by the macro sentiment recovery, SHFE and LME nickel prices rose from earlier lows amid fluctuations. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract rebounded from the 135,000 yuan/mt area to near 137,000 yuan/mt, and LME nickel rallied in tandem to above $17,900/mt. This week, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 136,112 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums stabilized at 1,300–1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the -500 to -400 yuan/mt range. Spot trading activity weakened from the previous week, as the futures price rebound and the completion of purchasing by most end-users left downstream parties largely on the sidelines. On the macro front, the most positive change this week came from the breakthrough in US-Iran relations. The US and Iran reached a peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to fully resume navigation in the near term, a geopolitical positive that boosted risk appetite. Some media outlets reported that the agreement would be officially signed on June 19, after which the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen. On June 18 Beijing time, the US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause in rate cuts. The Fed held its FOMC meeting on June 16-17, and the market had previously priced in a 98.5% probability of an unchanged rate. However, the hawkish signals from this meeting cannot be ignored. The new chair, Warsh, leaned hawkish, and the dot plot showed that half of officials expected at least one rate hike this year. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,700 mt this week, building up by 1,000 mt WoW. China’s social inventory stood at about 126,000 mt, with a slight destocking of roughly 86 mt WoW. Following the US-Iran agreement, expectations of sulfur supply recovery intensified, weakening the cost-support logic. With refined nickel inventories continuing to build up both in and outside China, upside resistance for nickel prices is clear. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

Several Chinese Taiwan stainless steel producers reported strong May revenue growth on the back of market recovery and firming prices. Cold-rolled sheet producer Chien Shing led the sector with a revenue surge to NT$238 million, driven by downstream distributors rushing to restock as LME nickel prices strengthened. Ta Chen International posted NT$11.7 billion in May revenue, up 42.5% YoY, supported by expanded local production and strong pricing power at its Texas facility in the high-tariff US market. Stainless steel pipe maker Froch recorded a 37.9% YoY increase to NT$1.19 billion, underpinned by robust demand from domestic semiconductor plant expansions and inventory replenishment in Europe and the US.

LME nickel prices and China's stainless steel futures strengthened this week, but the positive impact on trading volumes and market prices remained limited, with sluggish sales across Asia, Europe, and the US. In Chinese Taiwan, downstream buyers struggled to absorb June price increases from upstream mills, adopting a wait-and-see stance with most transactions concluded at May price levels, pressuring local distributors. India, by contrast, held steady, supported by demand from the automotive, industrial equipment, and infrastructure sectors. With BIS import restrictions eased through October, downstream manufacturers have grown more accepting of rising raw material costs, and end users are gradually absorbing the increased pricing pressure.

LME nickel futures edged down just USD3 on June 2 to close at USD19,248/ton, firmly defending the USD19,200 threshold despite a minor pullback from a recent one-month high. Nickel is up USD186 this month and 15.6% year-to-date. LME inventories fell 1104 tons to 275,340 tons (-0.15% MTD), with Indonesian MHP output declines adding to supply tightness. While firm US labor data rekindled Fed inflation concerns, steady Chinese stainless steel demand and declining stockpiles offset seasonal supply increases from the Philippines, keeping nickel positioned for narrow-range stability.

LME nickel futures rebounded above US$19,200/ton on une 1, closing at US$19,251/to, a one-month high, on the back of consecutive weekly gains. The rally was driven by declining pure nickel inventories and fresh mining disruptions, including Zimbabwe's restriction on nickel exports, offsetting a stronger US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Spot prices rose US$172 to US$19,039/ton, Nickel increase US$2,605 or 15.6% year-to-date.