Nickel prices bottomed out and rebounded this week, with macro sentiment dominating the pace. Early in the week, supported by mild cooling in the US July PPI and further decline in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, nonferrous metals generally rose, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rebounded from lows last week; mid-week, the 10-year US Treasury yield once climbed to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025, putting nickel prices under pressure, pulling back to a weekly low of 127,850 yuan/mt; on Thursday, the US Treasury unexpectedly announced expansion of the size of long-term nominal Treasury buybacks, triggering a rebound in US Treasuries and a sharp intraday drop in the US dollar index, with both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surging; SHFE nickel night session rallied sharply, reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level, before pulling back slightly on Friday,resulting in a weekly gain of about 0.6% WoW. On the spot market front, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price this week was 129,290 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt WoW; the Jinchuan refined nickel premium widened from 1,400 yuan/mt to 1,550 yuan/mt mid-week and then stabilized; discounts for mainstream electrodeposited nickel narrowed significantly, briefly rising to the 0-500 yuan/mt range mid-week, with overall weekly activity still dominated by just-in-time procurement. On the macro front, US Treasury market turmoil and policy response were the main themes for nonferrous metal pricing this week. In the first half of the week, the 10-year US Treasury yield once climbed to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025, with US dollar strength weighing on metal valuations; on Thursday, the US Treasury unexpectedly announced expansion of the size of long-term nominal Treasury buybacks, and Treasury Secretary Bessent further said he stands ready to expand buybacks of debt with higher financing costs; the US bond market rebounded, long-term yields pulled back significantly, and the US dollar index once fell 0.85% intraday, the largest single-day drop in three weeks, providing a significant boost to USD-denominated base metals. On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration announced a new round of "toughest-ever" economic sanctions on Iran and threatened economic action against any countries with commercial ties to Iran, tightening the Middle East situation again and keeping sulfur supply risk premium elevated. On the domestic front, the central bank released July financial data: aggregate social financing increment in the first seven months cumulated 22.25 trillion yuan, down 1.74 trillion yuan from a year earlier; M2 balance at end-July was 355.51 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY, with liquidity environment remaining reasonably ample. On inventory front, bonded zone inventory in Shanghai stood at about 1,400 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 131,000 mt, down about 2,500 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are in a tug-of-war between macro tailwinds and fundamental pressure: US expansion of Treasury buybacks and a weaker US dollar are positive for base metals, but both LME and China domestic inventories maintain a rising trend, with visible inventory at historical highs, and Indonesia's RKAB additional quotas remain unresolved. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 127,000-132,000 yuan/mt next week.

SMM, August 21 – Metal Market: By the midday close, base metals in the domestic market broadly gained. SHFE copper rose 0.36%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.11%. SHFE lead rose 1.22%. SHFE zinc rose 1.38%. SHFE tin rose 0.92%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded aluminum alloy futures rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.82%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 3.61%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.23%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 2.28%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore edged down, rebar rose 0.43%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.18%. Stainless steel fell 1.18%. On coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.35%, the most-traded coke contract rose 1.57%. On base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:40, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.51%, LME aluminum rose 0.64%. LME lead rose0.29%, LME zinc rose0.8%. LME tin rose0.36%. LME nickel edged up. On precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.34%, hitting a new high since May at $4,600.3/oz during the session; COMEX silver rose 1.06%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.22%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 4.07%. Also, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.58%, the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.79%. By the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract rose 8.96%, at 1,910 points. As of 11:40 on August 21, partial futures midday quotations: Spot Market and Fundamentals Silver: The US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond buyback scale pushed the US dollar weaker, silver prices rebounded, but rising US Treasury yields and hawkish signals limited the gains. High silver prices continued to suppress demand in the spot market, with trading sluggish... Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance: The ministry will promptly plan and introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies in H2] Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated at a press conference on August 21 of the "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan" series hosted by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, the Ministry has adopted multiple measures to continue supporting and encouraging consumption. It allocated 187.5 billion yuan for consumer goods trade-in, driving approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in sales of related goods, benefiting 178 million person-times. It innovatively launched a package of fiscal-financial coordination policies to boost domestic demand, targeting resident consumption and consumer industry operators, leveraging both the supply and demand sides. This policy has already benefited 113 million person-times. In 50 pilot cities, a receipt lottery campaign was launched, driving sales in related sectors to exceed 370 billion yuan. In H2, fiscal policy will continue to focus on accelerating fund utilization, boosting domestic demand, and strengthening fiscal reform and management to deliver tangible results. Regarding incremental policies, the Ministry of Finance will promptly formulate and introduce practical and effective incremental policies based on the macroeconomic conditions in H2, providing strong support for achieving an effective improvement in economic quality and a reasonable growth in quantity. (Xinhua News Agency) [National Energy Administration: China's total electricity consumption up 4.7% YoY in January-July 2026] On August 21, the National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for July and the first seven months. From January to July, total electricity consumption reached 6,139.9 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY. By sector, primary industry consumption was 87.7 billion kWh, up 3.5% YoY. Secondary industry consumption was 3,917.3 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY, with industrial consumption at 3,881.5 billion kWh (up 4.9% YoY) and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumption at 722.8 billion kWh (up 9.7% YoY). Tertiary industry consumption was 1,210 billion kWh, up 7.4% YoY, of which charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 97.4 billion kWh and 59.3 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 55.8% and 43.3%. Urban and rural residential consumption was 924.9 billion kWh, up 1.3% YoY. (National Energy Administration) [PBOC conducts reverse repo operations, posting net injection of 95 billion yuan today and net withdrawal of 272 billion yuan this week] The PBOC conducted 95 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos today, with no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 95 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,457.6 billion yuan in reverse repo operations. With 18 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,711.6 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos maturing this week, the net withdrawal was 212 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 98.76. Citigroup's foreign exchange strategists turned bearish on the US dollar's short-term outlook, as the market prepares for a more dovish US Fed, the US midterm elections, and a further expansion of US Treasury buyback scale by the US Treasury. The Citigroup strategist team led by Daniel Tobon said they had lowered their US dollar index forecast for the next three months from 102.12 to 98.34. Citigroup had previously noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent move to lower long-term borrowing costs by expanding the buyback of US Treasuries with maturities from 10 to 30 years could come at the expense of the US dollar. The US dollar index, after falling to its lowest level since May on Wednesday, was basically flat near 98.9 on Thursday. Citigroup's team stated that their view on the dollar has been "relatively neutral" in recent months, but they have warned that risks to the dollar in the coming months could increase. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on bond buybacks that the scale of a single buyback (upper limit) could exceed $4 billion, partly to send a signal. He said, "We want to show that yields do not reflect fundamentals." Meanwhile, he said the government may announce increased fiscal consolidation efforts, and it is highly likely that the deficit peak has already been seen. Regarding the debt figures, the $40 trillion debt number has no special meaning. The market is a bit too hasty. If there are any changes to the balance sheet, the Treasury and the Fed will cooperate. It needs to be clear that interest rates are unrelated to the buyback decision. On the inflation outlook, Bessent said market indicators point to lower inflation ahead. Regarding economic sanctions on Iran, Bessent said a press conference will be held next Monday to discuss related actions. The use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility (RRP), open to foreign central banks and other monetary authorities, has continued to climb, with the balance growing for two consecutive weeks, reflecting that foreign official institutions are continuing to increase their US dollar cash reserves. As of August 19, the amount of foreign entities' funds parked in the Fed's reverse repo pool rose to $373 billion, up from $357 billion a week earlier. Since August 5, the facility's usage has increased by approximately $56 billion in total, the largest two-week increase since October 2022. The market is closely watching changes in foreign RRP balances for signs of whether Japan, after intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the yen last month, is re-accumulating US dollar liquidity. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September is 63.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.2%. The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in October is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 6.8%. (Jin Shi Data APP) Data side: Today's releases include the UK July public sector net borrowing, UK July retail sales month-on-month (seasonally adjusted), France August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August services PMI preliminary, Canada June retail sales month-on-month, US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, global services PMI preliminary, Eurozone August consumer confidence index preliminary, China July total social electricity consumption YoY, and China July installed power generation capacity year-to-date. In addition, note: Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the review results of the Hang Seng Index Series for Q2 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI down 0.43% and Brent down 0.27%. As the US-Iran peace talks remained stalled, the security situation in the Middle East grew increasingly severe, and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday declined from the previous day. Preliminary data from vessel-tracking company Kpler showed that a total of seven cargo ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, below 14 on Wednesday; among them, four vessels entered the strait and three exited. The data showed that no Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers passed through this narrow sea lane on Thursday. However, a very large gas carrier transporting propane and butane exited the strait via an Iranian route. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market snapshot: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[8.21 Morning Meeting Summary] The US Treasury announced an expansion of the scale of long-term nominal Treasury buyback operations. The US Treasury will at least double the maximum size of a single liquidity support buyback operation for longer-dated nominal coupon notes, to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9, 2026. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in the night session and continued to consolidate at highs in the early morning session, closing the morning session at 129,560 yuan/mt, up 1.19%. Boosted by the US Treasury's expansion of buyback scale and the weakening US dollar, LME nickel and SHFE nickel both rallied sharply, with SHFE nickel re-standing above the 130,000 yuan/mt mark. In the short term, the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

SMM August 21 News: Metal Market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.01%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 1.1%. SHFE zinc rose 0.78%, and SHFE tin rose 0.75%. SHFE nickel fell 0.96%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.45%, while the most-traded primary aluminum contract fell 0.33%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 1.39%, iron ore edged up, and rebar rose 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.02%. Overnight in overseas markets, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged down, LME aluminum fell 1.62%. LME lead rose 0.72%. LME zinc rose 0.92%. LME tin rose 0.77%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.66%, hitting an intraday high of $4,597.1/oz; COMEX silver rose 3.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.03%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. As of 7:16 a.m. on August 21, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Shanghai: By the end of 2026, fully launch overall renovation projects of urban villages and fully complete remediation] The General Office of Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal and Housing Development in Shanghai." It proposes accelerating the renovation of urban villages, fully utilizing special loans for urban village renovation and local government special bonds, and increasing fiscal investment. It also aims to expedite relocation and land vacation, actively promote diversified resettlement such as housing vouchers. By the end of 2026, fully launch overall renovation projects of urban villages and fully complete remediation. By the end of 2027, fully complete preliminary renovation of overall renovation projects. Simultaneously, implement planning-based point removal. Accelerate comprehensive renovation of old public housing, through demolition and reconstruction, old city renovation, functional replacement, and other methods to renovate non-complete staff residential buildings, actively improve public housing rental rights collection and relocation update pathways. By the end of 2026, strive to fully complete the renovation of the remaining approximately 20,000 m² of small-beam thin-slab housing. By the end of 2030, strive to basically complete the renovation of non-complete staff residential buildings, achieve positive results in the renovation of non-complete lane, apartment, and garden houses, and promote the implementation of a batch of urban renewal projects that combine livelihood improvement and conservation development. [Shanghai International Energy Exchange further expands tradable product range for qualified foreign investors, newly opens low-sulfur fuel oil options] Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that, with the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, starting from September 10, 2026 (i.e., opening at 9:00 a.m. that day), the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will further expand the tradable product range for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (collectively referred to as Qualified Foreign Investors), and newly open the following commodity options: low-sulfur fuel oil options. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 98.87. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at September stands at 63.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.2%. For October, the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 6.8%. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28 (10:00 p.m. Beijing time on August 28). Fed Daly said that the rise in long-term yields is a global issue, weakening its signaling role for Fed policy, and he believes there is no risk to the Fed's credibility. Short-term yields indicate that the market understands the Fed's reaction function, and that Fed policy is in good shape, with no evidence seen of needing to raise rates early. He expects the inflation shock will gradually fade, so he is "very supportive" of the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged in July. However, one needs to be cautious about the cumulative effect of multiple inflation shocks, although he is looking for more concerning signs of inflation but has not seen them yet. Recent employment and inflation data have not changed the outlook, and he does not currently believe the labor market will drive inflation. The rise in bond yields has not sent a policy signal, and it is too early to discuss the Treasury issuance model. The Fed will find ways to achieve its policy objectives. The Fed will continue to fulfill its duties regardless of Treasury actions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, on the issue of bond buybacks, said that a single buyback operation could exceed $4 billion in size (upper limit), partly as a signal. They want to show that yields do not reflect fundamentals. At the same time, they may announce a greater fiscal consolidation effort, and it is very likely they have already seen the peak in deficits. As for the debt figure, the $40 trillion debt number has no special significance. The market is a bit ahead of itself. If there are any changes in the balance sheet, the Treasury and the Fed will coordinate. To be clear, interest rates have nothing to do with the buyback decision. On the inflation outlook, Bessent said that market indicators point to lower readings ahead. On economic sanctions against Iran, Bessent said that a press conference will be held next Monday to discuss related actions. Citigroup's foreign exchange strategists have turned bearish on the short-term outlook for the US dollar, as the market is preparing for a more dovish Fed, the US midterm elections, and the Treasury's further expansion of Treasury buyback operations. The Citi strategist team, led by Daniel Tobon, said it has lowered its 3-month US dollar index forecast from 102.12 to 98.34. Citi previously noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent move to lower long-term borrowing costs by expanding the scale of repurchases of 10-year to 30-year US Treasury bonds could come at a cost to the US dollar. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since May on Wednesday and then was basically flat around 98.9 on Thursday. The Citi team said they have maintained a "relatively neutral" view on the US dollar in recent months but have warned that risks to the US dollar could increase in the coming months. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of UK public sector net borrowing in July, UK July seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales, France August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August services PMI preliminary, Canada June month-on-month retail sales, US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, Global services PMI preliminary, Eurozone August consumer confidence index preliminary, China July total social electricity consumption YoY, and China's year-to-date July national installed power generation capacity. In addition, attention should be paid to: Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q2 2026. On crude oil: Both crude oil futures extended their gains for a fourth consecutive trading session overnight, with WTI crude up 2.16% and Brent crude up 1.77%. Oil prices surged due to Trump's threat of sanctions on Iran. As mentioned by Wall Street Sights, citing CCTV, Bessent revealed that a press conference will be held on August 24, next Monday, to elaborate on the US action plan against Iran. Bessent hinted that increasing economic pressure could be an important means to avoid restarting large-scale military operations. CCTV quoted him as saying: "We have asymmetric information. I'm not sure why oil issues have become the focus. If we apply maximum economic pressure, it means that large-scale military conflict is less likely." UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: "Tensions in the Middle East remain high, leaving room for further supply disruptions. The decline in Middle East crude exports is tightening the oil market." (Wall Street Sights) NYMEX New York crude oil September futures, affected by contract rollover, will conduct its last floor trading at 2:30 AM on August 21 and its last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the contract rollover announcements of the trading venues to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX time. Please be cautious.

August 20, SMM News: Base metals: At midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper rose 0.36%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.57%. SHFE lead rose 0.28%. SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 1.68%. SHFE nickel rose 1.19%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.3%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.98%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 2.17%, rebar fell 0.46%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.27%. Stainless steel rose 0.63%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.25%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.12%. On the overseas market base metals side, as of 11:40, LME metals generally rose. LME copper, LME lead, and LME zinc each gained less than 0.3%. LME aluminum fell 0.79%. LME tin rose 0.73%. LME nickel fell 0.64%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.11%, COMEX silver rose 2.11%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 2.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 4.93%. Additionally, at midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 4.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 2.44%. At midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 1.46% to 1,716.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 20, noon quotes for some futures: Spot market & fundamentals Aluminum: Today the futures market continued its decline, but the south China spot market was steady with improvement. The cumulative decline in absolute prices had been substantial, clearly breaking below the monthly moving average. Coupled with stable inventory draws and a significant single-day decline, these dual positives prompted holders to generally hold back from selling more firmly... Macro front China: [Unchanged for the 15th consecutive month! August LPR quotes released: 5-year above 3.5%, 1-year 3%] China's August loan prime rate (LPR) was released on August 20, with both 1-year and 5-year above LPR unchanged. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan prime rate (LPR) on August 20, 2026 is: 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year above LPR at 3.5%. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR release. The 7-day reverse repo rate, as the main policy rate, has remained unchanged for 15 consecutive months since its cut in May 2025. Therefore, the pricing basis for LPR quotes has not changed this month. The LPR was last adjusted in May 2025, with both the 1-year and over-5-year LPR cut by 10 basis points. [Shanghai issues "Housing Eight Measures" for property market: Down payment for second homes outside the outer ring road reduced from 20% to 15%, and interim home purchase subsidy policy introduced] To better meet residents' rigid and improved housing needs and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, on August 20, six departments including the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management, the Shanghai Municipal Housing Authority, the Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau, the Shanghai Branch of the People's Bank of China, the Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau, and the Shanghai Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the 《Notice on Optimizing Local Real Estate Policy Measures》 (hereinafter referred to as the 《Notice》), effective from August 21, 2026. The 《Notice》 mainly includes 8 policy measures in 5 aspects: optimizing housing provident fund withdrawal, optimizing personal housing credit, implementing trade-in home purchase subsidies, promoting housing voucher placement, and advancing the acquisition of second-hand housing. [Beijing Yizhuang: Will accelerate the mass production of 100,000-unit level embodied AI robots] According to the "Beijing Yizhuang" official account, on August 19, the 2026 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing Yizhuang. At the "Open Cooperation" main forum, Li Quan, member of the Party Working Committee and Deputy Director of the Management Committee of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, released the "Beijing Machine Domain"—a vision of building a new society of human-machine integrated embodied AI. Beijing Yizhuang will accelerate the development of 100 feature robot products that can be practically deployed, promote their application in 1,000 niche areas; accelerate the mass production of 100,000-unit level embodied AI robots, and form a production capacity of 1 million sets of key core parts. (from Wall Street News APP) The PBOC conducted zero 7-day reverse repo operations for 8 consecutive working days. Today, 327.4 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar side: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.83. US Fed meeting minutes showed that several officials last month leaned toward raising rates, while many said that if inflation failed to decline, further tightening of monetary policy would be necessary. However, at the July meeting, uncertainty continued to heavily influence Fed officials' judgment. The minutes showed: "Regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants reiterated that their interpretation of future data would be a key component of policy discussions." The FOMC voted 9 to 3 in July to keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari voted against, advocating for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Two other regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights in July—Schmid and Musalem—also later stated that if they had had voting rights at that time, they would have supported a rate hike at that meeting. Most of the policy discussions at the July meeting revolved around differing judgments on future inflation trends. The meeting minutes stated: "Most participants expected that inflation would gradually pull back over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases faded, but many participants noted that the possibility of inflation remaining elevated persisted." According to the CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 32.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 58.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 4.3%. Four US Senate Democrats led by Chris Van Hollen have demanded that Fed Chairman Warsh publicly disclose the content of his conversations with Trump, after The Wall Street Journal reported that the two had spoken multiple times, even though Warsh's schedule did not show such calls. The senators said that without disclosing contact information, it could lead the public to mistakenly believe that the White House is steering monetary policy. Last month, under questioning by Van Hollen, Warsh did not directly respond to the matter. The senators demanded that Warsh confirm in writing whether he has had any contact with Trump since taking office, or amend his schedule to disclose relevant calls. In early August, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett downplayed these calls, saying that Trump did not pressure Warsh on rate decisions; and Trump himself said that he had only had one brief conversation with Warsh. In contrast, former Fed Chairman Powell had detailed records of his calls with Trump and disclosed several face-to-face meetings. The US Treasury issued a statement saying it will at least double the size of liquidity support repo operations targeting long-term nominal coupon securities, covering two maturity buckets: 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year tenors. The current maximum size per operation is $2 billion, and future operations will be at least $4 billion each. The adjustment will take effect on September 9, 2026, and will be implemented for the remainder of the current refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). The Treasury will provide more information on future repo sizes at the next quarterly refunding meeting, scheduled for November 4, 2026. The expansion of the repurchase operation scale reflects the Ministry of Finance's intention to provide stronger liquidity support for the long-term nominal government bond market. The Ministry of Finance will announce the updated temporary government bond repurchase arrangements later. US Treasury Secretary Bessent this year has become one of the most interventionist Treasury secretaries in decades through a series of unconventional operations, aiming to curb the rise in US borrowing costs. This week, the US Treasury announced it would "at least double" its originally planned repurchase of 10-year to 30-year bonds. Previously, the Treasury had signaled a possible reduction in long-term debt issuance. On July 31, Bessent led the US government's first yen purchase in 30 years. Former Treasury official Mark Sobel commented that Bessent is "absolutely an aggressive interventionist," with a style reminiscent of his hedge fund background. He believes that Bessent and senior government officials are clearly concerned about rising long-term US Treasury yields. Affected by inflation, Fed monetary policy, and fiscal deficits, the 10-year US Treasury yield has been rising, pushing up mortgage rates and dragging down economic growth. Some analysts point out that Bessent is trying to stabilize the market through yield curve intervention, but also warn that without addressing high debt and fiscal deficits, this strategy is difficult to sustain in the long term. (Jin Shi Data APP) Data: Today, the following data will be released: Australia July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany July PPI month-on-month, Switzerland July trade balance, UK August CBI industrial order expectations, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July Conference Board leading index month-on-month, China July year-to-date installed power generation capacity, China July year-to-date installed power generation capacity year-on-year rate, among others. In addition, attention should be paid to: the Ministry of Commerce's August first regular press conference; interview of 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem by CNBC; Alibaba's earnings release. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks moved sideways, with WTI up 0.05% and Brent up 0.23%. With US-Iran negotiations in a stalemate, oil prices moved sideways. According to CCTV News: On August 19 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran failed to seize the opportunity to reach an agreement, so he announced the "harshest economic action ever taken against any country" against Iran, calling it an unprecedented "economic war and economic isolation." Trump said the US is building a record number of oil pipelines to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. He said that with the emergence of more alternative supply routes and the US strengthening its control over the strait, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz will decline. Trump also said that although some had predicted that oil prices could skyrocket to $350, current oil prices remain around $84 to $85 per barrel. Two US officials told Axios that the US military has quietly established a shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz, carrying millions of barrels of oil daily. Although the broader war remains deadlocked, the operation has achieved significant results. The operation has been ongoing for weeks, and 15 to 20 tankers have already passed through the southern channel off the coast of Oman to enter or exit the Strait. Officials said that about 10 million barrels of oil are shipped through the strait daily and enter the global energy market, but this figure is about half of the pre-war volume. This US-led operation is alleviating one of the most severe impacts of the war: the disruption of oil supply, which has driven a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Officials stated that although the current volume of oil shipped through the strait is still below pre-war levels, it has already had a notable impact on global oil supply. (Jinshi Data) In addition, Venezuelan oil minister Paula Enao told investors in Houston that Venezuela hopes to sign production-sharing contracts and increase oil production in this country with the world's largest crude oil reserves. Enao said that Venezuela currently has 916 blocks available for exploration and production. She said Venezuela is known for heavy crude, but there are also investment opportunities in light and medium crude and natural gas. She said: "We need to reach these agreements to enter these new blocks." "There is a whole world waiting for you to explore." This week, Venezuela has signed agreements with oilfield services giant Schlumberger (SLB.N) and independent oil producer Hnt Oil, but the country hopes to attract more private investment to revive oil production. Over the past 20 years, Venezuela's oil production has been steadily declining. Enao said about 140 companies attended the meeting, and the scale of on-site investors showed the market's interest in investing in Venezuela. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel, August 20: Macro and market news: (1) The US Treasury announced the expansion of the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond buybacks. It will at least double the maximum size of a single liquidity support buyback operation for longer-dated nominal coupon Treasury bonds, to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, 2026. (2) Following the US Treasury's surprise announcement of increased scale of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, the Treasury market rebounded, pushing long-term yields significantly lower. The US dollar index fell as much as 0.85% intraday, its biggest drop in three weeks, and hit its lowest level since mid-May. Spot market: On August 20, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 130,250 yuan/mt, up 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in the night session and consolidated at highs in the morning session, reporting 129,560 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 1.19%. Boosted by the US Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks and a weaker US dollar, both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surged, with SHFE nickel reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.