Next week, the main macroeconomic data to be released include China's June CPI annual rate and the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI. This week, US non-farm payrolls data came in far below the previous value and expectations, cooling market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike. The US dollar index may return to a weak range of fluctuation. Although the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain unclear, the gradual recovery of shipping and maritime transport and the decline in crude oil prices indicate that supply chain markets are recovering. In addition, it should be noted that the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting next week. For LME lead, high lead ingot inventory outside China is the biggest bearish factor in current market trading, especially as LME lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M contango did not narrow but widened, with the latest quote at -$37.79/mt. Fundamental news was mediocre, providing limited support for prices. In the near term, we need to pay more attention to the US dollar index trend and the new developments from next week’s US Fed meeting, and their impact on the metals market. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,865-1,915/mt next week. For SHFE lead, this week, amid a carnival for bears, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing lead smelters’ losses to widen and forcing secondary lead enterprises to cut or suspend production again. Bears then began to exit, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Going forward, we need to monitor downstream enterprises’ purchasing trends. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, we should remain vigilant about bearish funds that have not exited. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,800-16,100 yuan/mt. Spot Price Forecast: 15,750-16,000 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in July remains unchanged. However, after large enterprises complete their semi-annual inventory checks and account closing, they will resume regular purchasing, which may bring some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume production after maintenance, turning supply expectations upward. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are in a state of production cuts, leading to regional supply constraints. If lead prices continue to rebound next week, we need to watch for the possibility of secondary lead production resuming as losses are repaired. Spot lead is expected to remain in contango trading.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,903.5/mt. During the Asian session, funds steadily pushed up futures, with prices drifting higher continuously and reaching an intraday high of $1,914/mt. In the European session, bullish momentum faded quickly, and futures came under pressure, drifting lower in a continuous decline and hitting bottom at a low of $1,890/mt. Near the close, losses narrowed slightly, and it finally settled at $1,892.5/mt, down $9/mt, or 0.47%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,180 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to a low of 16,125 yuan/mt in early trading, then bulls quickly fought back, pushing prices to drift higher to 16,200 yuan/mt. After the spike, upward momentum faded quickly, and futures remained under pressure below the intraday moving average, drifting lower to finally settle at 16,130 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.37%. Macro front: The US Supreme Court blocked Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. Trump: Will immediately take action on Fed Governor Cook’s eligibility to serve. Iran: The current focus is on implementing the memorandum of understanding, and no talks with the US will be held in the near term. China and the EU officially confirmed the establishment of a China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanism. Chinese air conditioners sold out in Europe, with Midea doubling sales and Gree fully sold out. Starting July 1, nearly 20 semiconductor companies initiated a new round of price hikes with concentrated adjustments. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and suppliers sold at prevailing rates. Price premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were basically flat WoW. EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted lower in the south and higher in the north, with mainstream producing area quotations ranging from a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices and were less willing to quote; some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an EXW basis, remaining in an inverted state versus primary lead. For downstream enterprises, demand was limited at month-end. Most enterprises only made just-in-time procurement or used long-term contracts, with limited inquiries and thin transactions in the spot market. Inventory: On June 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 450 mt to 297,000 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions rose by 3,700 mt to 71,200 mt. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, the secondary lead supply side has seen a tug-of-war between longs and shorts: on one hand, several previously maintenance-hit secondary lead smelters have delayed their production resumptions; on the other hand, some smelters have gradually resumed production, with supply increases and decreases offsetting each other. The demand side is visibly under pressure, with a slow downstream consumption recovery pace and low willingness among enterprises to purchase and pick up goods. Combined with the dual impact of the traditional off-season and high temperatures, many downstream processing enterprises plan to halt production for holidays, further dragging down end-use demand. Currently, lead prices remain on a downward trajectory, but primary and secondary lead prices have inverted, coupled with scrap battery raw material costs staying high, providing bottom support for lead prices.

Next week, several key economic data will be released, mainly including China's official manufacturing PMI for June, the US June ADP employment figure, the US June unemployment rate, and the US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls. Recently, US-Iran diplomacy achieved a phased breakthrough, with both sides signing a memorandum of understanding, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and the recovery of crude oil and other supplies. However, conflicts along the Lebanon-Israel border have been recurring, and the ceasefire agreement remains fragile, necessitating cautious optimism. Additionally, short-term inflation data and hawkish signals pushed up expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, while market views diverged and conflicted, requiring closer attention to next week's economic data outcomes. As for LME lead, affected by the lifting of shipping restrictions in the Middle East and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, market bearish sentiment surged, and LME lead prices fell continuously, nearly breaking below $1,900/mt. While lead prices were declining, the LME Cash-3M contango widened, with the latest quote at -$33.6/mt. Notably, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for four consecutive weeks, with total inventories dropping below 300,000 mt, the latest figure at 297,500 mt. It is expected that short-term macro risk factors still exist, and fundamental factors present contradictions. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with LME lead forecast to trade between $1,875 and $1,945/mt. As for SHFE lead, entering July, with the semiannual capital repatriation factor removed, upstream and downstream enterprises will resume regular trading. Meanwhile, supplies of lead concentrates and scrap batteries remain constrained, with secondary lead enterprises incurring significant losses. Production resumptions have been delayed, and there are additional production cuts. Coupled with the persistent inversion between secondary and primary lead prices, these factors will provide support for lead prices in the short term. However, we also need to be vigilant about macro bearish factors, with lead prices expected to be in the doldrums, while watching the lead ingot import window. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 15,950 and 16,400 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,950-16,250 yuan/mt. Before the end of June, some large downstream enterprises will close accounts and take inventory, which will continue to disrupt trading activity for lead ingots. Once July arrives, the lead market will return to normal trading. In some regions, transactions for primary lead at a significant contango (against SMM#Pb) are expected to decrease, or the contango will narrow. On the secondary lead side, constrained by losses, smelters' shipments are limited, and some enterprises already have inventory buildup. If arrivals of imported lead increase to supplement supply, it cannot be ruled out that secondary refined lead may turn to widen the contango.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in January-May 2026, China's cumulative imports of refined lead and lead materials totaled 248,443 mt, a YoY surge of 291.06%. The import window remained open throughout H1, with a steady influx of supply from outside China, and total imports had already exceeded the level for the full year 2025. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead materials in January-May stood at only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, and remained at a low level overall.

Overall, the secondary lead market will remain in a pattern of "weak cost support and strong consumption suppression" in the short term. Smelter production resumptions in June will find it difficult to fully offset previous cuts, with the supply side showing marginal improvement but remaining tight. Lead prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.