SMM, May 13: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,540 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the 16,530-16,580 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, boosted by stronger LME lead prices and the entry of bullish funds, the market fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,655 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,615 yuan/mt, recording a bullish candlestick with a gain of 35 yuan/mt, or 0.21%. Currently, ongoing environmental protection checks in South China continue to intensify, leading to a phased contraction in regional secondary lead smelting supply, which provides fundamental support for lead prices. On the other hand, primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, suppliers have accelerated lead ingot warehousing for delivery, and social inventory continued its buildup trend, further suppressing upside room for lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mining enterprises indicated that they had lowered zinc concentrate TCs in May due to market conditions and a sharp rise in sulphuric acid prices, but the quoted lead concentrate TCs for concentrates produced and sold during the same period were not adjusted. A few suppliers holding lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the starting payable or payable indicator for copper and zinc contained in lead ore, but did not directly lower their lead concentrate TC quotations. Regarding imported ore prices, smelters maintained mainstream quotations of -$150 to -$130/dmt. Since late April, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio has continued to decline, losses on imported lead concentrates have widened, and smelters showed little enthusiasm for negotiating and purchasing. Regarding the silver payable indicator for lead concentrates, as silver prices have yet to break out of their sideways range and macro influences remain complex, the precious metals trend remains unclear. Both buyers and sellers remained cautiously on the sidelines, and the silver payable indicator for lead concentrates across various silver content levels remained stable.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,963/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,959.5-1,966.5/mt, touching a high of $1,966.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead prices turned to fluctuate downward, dipping to a low of $1,947/mt. Supported by LME lead destocking, LME lead rebounded and eventually closed at $1,963.5/mt, up 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,740 yuan/mt. It briefly fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt, then rebounded and eventually closed at a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Its open interest reached 64,643 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: White House: Trump discussed Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal with senior aides. US media: Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Trump: maintained contact with both Putin and Zelensky. Hezbollah leader: firmly rejected direct negotiations with Israel. Russian President Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. OpenAI and Microsoft reached a "ceasefire agreement." NBS: From January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. NDRC: prohibited foreign acquisition of the Manus project and demanded the transaction be revoked. National Energy Administration: will coordinate with the NDRC to scientifically plan hydrogen energy industry development goals and tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. China National Space Administration: made forward-looking arrangements for new industries such as space computing power and space manufacturing. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead held up well. On the spot side, warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were scarce, and some suppliers intended to ship to delivery warehouses. Cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters were also quoted firmly, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with most shipments made at premiums. On the secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased, supply in east China was tight, and some smelters shipped at premiums. Regional price spreads widened, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. As the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement needs, inquiries were also few, and spot order market trading was sluggish. Inventory: As of April 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 325 mt to 269,700 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: On the consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through in just-in-time procurement. Supply side, affected by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts and production suspension, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten; meanwhile, primary lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. The current market presented a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

According to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs (compiled by SMM), the import and export of refined lead and lead alloys in March 2026 were as follows: China's refined lead exports totaled 3,190 mt, down 36.83% MoM and up 12.78% YoY. From January to March, combined exports of refined lead and lead products totaled 12,950 mt, down 23.43% YoY on a cumulative basis.

SMM April 28: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,963/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the $1,959.5-1,966.5/mt range, touching a high of $1,966.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead prices shifted to a fluctuating downward trend, dipping to $1,947/mt. Supported by LME lead inventory destocking, LME lead rebounded with fluctuations, ultimately closing at $1,963.5/mt, up 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,740 yuan/mt. It briefly fluctuated downward at the start of trading, dipping to 16,700 yuan/mt, then rebounded with fluctuations, ultimately closing at a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Its open interest reached 64,643 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement. Supply side, affected by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts or production suspensions, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Meanwhile, primary lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. The current market presented a supply-demand dual-weakness pattern, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Import side, cumulative refined lead imports in January-February reached 33,412 mt, surging 732.08% YoY. Of this, February imports alone were 21,072 mt, up 70.77% MoM and 1,169.62% YoY, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years; raw material supply remained ample.