SMM News August 1: Metals markets: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.18%, gaining 2.9% in July. SHFE aluminum was unchanged at 23,665 yuan/mt, with a July gain of 4.63%. SHFE lead fell 1.41%, SHFE zinc rose 0.64%, and SHFE tin rose 0.72%. SHFE nickel fell 0.24%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures edged up 0.04%, and the cast aluminum main contract edged up 0.02%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Stainless steel rose 0.17%, iron ore fell 2.85%, rebar fell 0.83%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.74%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.38%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. In the overnight overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper edged up 0.03%, with a July gain of 3.16%. LME aluminum rose 0.06%, gaining 2.9% in July. LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc rose 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.26%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.49%, but posted its second straight weekly gain, up 0.68% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.49%; COMEX silver fell 2.1%, with a weekly decline, down 1.92% for the week, and two straight monthly losses, sliding 3.58% in July. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.89%, posting its second straight weekly gain, up 0.55% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.52%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.01%, but posted two straight weekly gains, up 0.98% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.21%. As of 8:16 on August 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front China side: [State Council executive meeting: Study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech on the H1 economic situation and ensuring sound economic work in H2] The meeting stressed that thinking and understanding should be aligned with the Party Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the economic situation, more concrete measures should be taken to promote sustained, innovation-driven, high-quality, and improved economic development, and efforts should be made to achieve a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan. The efficiency of macro policy implementation must be effectively enhanced, existing policies should be fully and optimally utilized, and pragmatic and effective incremental policies should be timely devised and introduced. Domestic demand must be effectively expanded, with a focus on sectors with great potential and strong driving force to launch a series of robust measures, accelerating the implementation of major projects set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and solidly advancing the planning and construction of the “Six Networks”. Internal growth drivers should be continuously strengthened, with more effective and concrete measures introduced in building a unified national market and improving the business environment. Sustained efforts must be made to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, solidly carry out tasks such as disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, and workplace safety, strengthen assistance to people in need, and firmly uphold the bottom line of people's livelihoods. (CCTV) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Conducts Supervision and Inspection at Some Automotive Producers] To further standardize competitive order in the automotive industry and enhance the production consistency and quality and safety level of automotive products, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology went to Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., NIO Automotive Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd., and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (JAC) from the 30th to the 31st to conduct supervision and inspection on the product safety assurance capabilities and production consistency of road motor vehicle manufacturing enterprises. It is reported that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to deeply carry out actions to enhance production consistency and quality of road motor vehicle products, further strengthen the management of access review and testing verification for "radical" innovative designs of automotive products, urge automobile and motorcycle manufacturers to thoroughly investigate product safety risk hazards, strengthen product testing verification and safety assessment, standardize marketing and publicity practices, safeguard the bottom line of product safety, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. (Xinhua) [China Securities Regulatory Commission Approves Coke Options Registration] Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to make thorough preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.78. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index declined, dropping 1.65% for the week. On the monthly chart, the US dollar index fell, down 1.37% for the month. According to The New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate-setting meetings held by the US Fed, a move that could trigger significant shockwaves and would mark the biggest change in how the Fed operates in recent years. Currently, the Fed's 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. The people said that at the meeting this week, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must follow regarding the minimum number of meetings it must hold each year, as well as the timetable for such an adjustment. Warsh asked officials to provide him with their individual views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Warsh kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three officials dissented, advocating for an immediate rate hike to address persistent inflation risks. Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics at PGIM Credit, said that Warsh's press conference performance was “weaker than expected” and expected that the US Fed’s “hawkish pivot” would materialize in September, at which point there could be three consecutive rate hikes. Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman noted: The support for the US dollar from the resilience of US economic activity has been offset by Warsh's failure to translate his tough inflation rhetoric into credible policy action, raising the risk that the US Fed falls behind the curve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in September was 65%, a pullback from 82% a week earlier. (Wall Street CN) Three US Fed policymakers said their dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflation pressures, indicating that the internal pressure on Fed Chairman Warsh to act is mounting. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they were concerned that, although the current round of price increases may have originated from short-term factors such as President Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation situation now warrants action by the US Fed. Logan joined them, saying that even if inflation cools somewhat, it is unlikely to fully pull back to the US Fed’s 2% target unless the US Fed raises rates; without any policy restraint, inflation could continue to run above target until an unexpected shock occurs. Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he could support a series of rate hikes, not just a single increase, to prevent inflation from becoming further entrenched. He said, “A series of small policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for the situation to develop and ultimately having to take more aggressive action.” Hammack said that if the US Fed does not tighten policy, the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate. She said, “Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will pull back to our target on its own.” (Jin10 Data APP) Fed’s Barkin said that whether the interest rate level set by the US Fed is sufficient to curb inflation is an “open question,” and he also said he is uncertain whether he would join the three other regional Fed presidents who voted for a rate hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said, “I think there is a good case for tightening policy and taking back some of the rate cuts from last year.”He noted that given the slowdown in inflation data in June, "I think one can also argue... there is still time before the next meeting to determine whether the current policy stance is appropriate." Barkin will not be a voting member on interest rate decisions until next year. Furthermore, Barkin was skeptical about whether the labour market has strengthened significantly. He stated, "It does not feel like the labour market is tight." He also pointed out that the transmission of price increases through the economy is uneven, making it difficult to assess how much inflation remains. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July CPI MoM, France July Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final, UK July Manufacturing PMI Final, US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, US June Construction Spending MoM, US June Trade Balance, US June JOLTS Job Openings, US June Factory Orders MoM, China July RatingDog Services PMI, France June Industrial Production MoM, France July Services PMI Final, Germany July Services PMI Final, Eurozone July Services PMI Final, UK July Services PMI Final, Eurozone June PPI MoM, US July ADP Employment Change, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM, US July Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US June Wholesale Sales MoM, France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Production MoM, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, UK July Halifax Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index MoM, France June Trade Balance, Switzerland July Consumer Confidence Index, Canada July Employment Change, US July Unemployment Rate, US July Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, US July Average Hourly Earnings MoM, US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, China July Trade Balance in USD terms, China July Foreign Exchange Reserves, China July Trade Balance, China July CPI YoY, China July PPI YoY, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid next week to: SpaceX releasing its Q2 2026 results; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaking on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures posted sharp gains, with WTI up 3.84% and Brent up 4.79%. On the weekly chart, WTI crude oil futures fell 2.81% over the week, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.7%. On the monthly chart, WTI crude oil futures surged 24.89% over the month, and Brent crude oil surged 24.8%. The decline in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over global crude oil transportation. Uncertainty remains over when crude oil supply from the Middle East will return to normal. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in June completely broke down in early July. From mid-to-late July, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for energy trade, remained severely disrupted, with intermittent blockades at times. Meanwhile, long-range drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries destroyed approximately 30% to 45% of Russia's active refining capacity, pushing European diesel refining margins above $60/barrel and sending global refined product prices near wartime highs. (Wallstreetcn) The international shipping information platform "Marine Traffic" reported on July 31 that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on July 30 dropped to 5 from 22 the previous day, a decline of 77%. Data from the platform showed that all 5 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the channel on the Iranian side. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CBS News citing multiple sources, the US and Israel are planning one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date against Iranian energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and refineries, with the operation possibly lasting through the weekend. On August 1, Iranian media cited an Iranian official as saying that Iran believes an attack by the US and Israel on Iranian infrastructure would be a "reckless act," and that Iran has formulated a comprehensive plan to respond to "any reckless action by the US." (Jinshi Data APP) According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Yemen's Houthi forces stated that in implementing the strategy of "blockade against blockade," 8 Saudi oil tankers have been forced to change course and detour around the Cape of Good Hope after maritime restrictions were imposed on Saudi oil vessels. (Jinshi Data APP) Meanwhile, ICE data showed that for the week ending July 28, Brent crude speculators reduced net long positions by 6,948 lots to 185,083 lots. Diesel speculators increased net long positions by 2,654 lots to 87,194 lots. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended reading:

Next week, key macroeconomic data include the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, unemployment rate, and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls. As recent cooling inflation has dampened rate hike expectations, the US dollar index consolidates around the $100 level, with market awaiting guidance from employment data. Additionally, Iran rejected a proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US announced the completion of a new round of military operations targeting Iranian objectives, reigniting market concerns over easing geopolitical conflicts. For LME lead, LME lead inventory continued its downward trend, while LME lead Cash-3M contango widened further, with the latest quote at -$41.15/mt. Currently, geopolitical conflict risks persist outside China; lead consumption in the Middle East shows no recovery expectations, while lead consumption in Southeast Asia is steadily rising with spot premiums climbing again. Lead ingot (Pb≥99.99%) CIF premium was quoted at a super high $240/mt, which will support an upward shift in lead price center to some extent. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,925/mt. For SHFE lead, there are no expectations for improvement in lead consumption in August yet. Cautious procurement by downstream enterprises and accumulating lead ingot inventory have dragged lead prices to consolidate on a subdued note. Meanwhile, increased maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters, along with supply tightening expectations, have narrowed spot lead discounts, providing strong support for lead prices. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,500-15,850 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,350-15,600 yuan/mt. Entering August, a new round of delivery for SHFE lead is on the agenda, with lead ingots moving from smelter warehouses to social warehouses. Market supply of circulating cargo is expected to decrease, and suppliers' willingness to sell at discounts may further decline. If lead prices continue to consolidate at lows, spot premiums for both primary and secondary lead are expected to persist.

SMM, July 31 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.72%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead fell 0.99%. SHFE zinc rose 0.87%. SHFE tin rose 1.89%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.15%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.76%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract extended the decline from the previous trading day, falling another 3.44%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.88%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.76%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.86%. Stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.93%. For base metals in the overseas market, as of 11:38, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper and LME aluminum edged up, with gains within 0.1%. LME lead fell 0.29%, LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.1%. LME nickel fell 0.23%. For precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.68%, COMEX silver fell 0.74%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.97%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.73%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.23% to 1,722 points. As of 11:38 on July 31, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,790 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,690 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Recently working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand, 2026-2030] Zhou Hongwei, deputy director of the Department of National Economy under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand (2026-2030). Going forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to more forcefully and effectively expand domestic demand. [NBS: July manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, business sentiment pulled back somewhat; high-tech manufacturing continued to expand] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with business sentiment pulling back somewhat. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing business sentiment from the previous month. In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, suggesting that China's enterprise production and business activities slowed down MoM. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, said that in July, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. Due to a high base from the rapid growth of the manufacturing sector earlier and the onset of the traditional production off-season for some manufacturing industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continued to play a supporting and leading role. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 51.4% and 53.3%, respectively, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, maintaining relatively fast expansion and driving the manufacturing sector towards new and better development; the PMIs for consumer goods and high energy-consuming sectors were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, reflecting a pullback in business sentiment. [PBOC net injected 45 billion yuan via reverse repos today, open market operations net injected 421.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC today conducted 134 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 45 billion yuan was achieved. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,242 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos each day from the 29th to the 31st. With a total of 1,020.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of 1-year MLF maturing this week, a net injection of 421.5 billion yuan was realized. (Jin10 data app) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 100.22. Data released by the US government on Thursday showed that the US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The annual PCE inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from the three-year high of 4.1% in May. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The cooling of inflation in June was mainly due to lower oil prices after the fragile temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. The Fed considers the PCE price index, especially the core PCE, to be the most accurate indicator of US inflation trends. Currently, it shows that US inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.4%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 16.9%. Citigroup economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said that Fed Chairman Warsh hinted that other inflation indicators beyond the PCE price index will play a larger role in monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. The core PCE inflation rate in June fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. By comparison, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.6%, closer to the Fed's 2% target. Hollenhorst and Clark said: "In the coming months, the market should see more clearly that the broader inflation measures Warsh is focusing on do not show worrisome signs of accelerating inflation." The market currently expects a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. However, the two economists believe this expectation may be wrong. (Jin10 data app) Other currencies: [BOJ voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, will hike rates as conditions warrant] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate at 1% on Friday, as expected, after having raised the benchmark rate to the highest since 1995 last month. BOJ board member Hajime Takata dissented, calling for a 25-bps hike, arguing that the situation has entered a new phase and the BOJ needs to adopt a flexible approach to deal with upside price risks and changes in overseas financial conditions. The BOJ said it will continue to raise rates in accordance with economic, price developments and financial conditions, that underlying inflation is approaching 2%, financial conditions remain accommodative, and significant downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to prices have both diminished. In its latest economic outlook, the BOJ lowered its core CPI forecast for fiscal 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, and raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%. (Jin10 data) Data: Today will see the release of US Q2 Employment Cost Index quarterly rate, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide House Price Index monthly rate, Switzerland June real retail sales annual rate, France July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Canada May GDP monthly rate, Eurozone July CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and Japan's central bank target rate through July 31, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China will open a new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30, Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia reported earnings, the Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo held a monetary policy press conference. In crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets declined, with US crude down 1.58% and Brent crude down 1.24%. The market saw a mix of bullish and bearish factors: mutual airstrikes between the US and Iran posed geopolitical risks, while recently rebounded shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Traders remained cautious overall, with limited willingness to make big directional bets. (Wall Street Insights) The previously slowed crude oil transshipment services in the Strait of Hormuz have recently become active again, helping move millions of barrels of crude oil out of the strait. As hostilities in the Middle East escalate, this mode of transportation once again plays a critical role. This transshipment model emerged during the most intense period of conflict, becoming a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Relevant vessels transport crude oil from the Persian Gulf—typically turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, after which the receiving tanker delivers the crude oil to buyers around the world. Although crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped has played an important role in alleviating market concerns about oil price surges. Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said that for at least two shipping enterprises involved in Strait of Hormuz transport, transshipment volumes are now near levels seen before the escalation of hostilities. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Reuters, citing shipping data firm Kpler, 25 commercial cargo vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels, with only two oil tankers passing through. Out of the 25 vessels transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 18 entered the waterway while 7 departed. These included 2 VLCCs, 1 Suezmax tanker, and 5 Aframax tankers. Meanwhile, both vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were sailing empty. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Lead Morning Update: SHFE Lead Pulls Back Under High Inventory Pressure] SMM, July 31: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,904/mt. Influenced by a weakening US dollar index, the overall center of LME lead has shifted slightly upward recently. However, judging from the overnight trend...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Market Supply and Demand Both Subdued Yet Inventory Buildup Risk Persists; Short-term Lead Prices Will Remain Under Pressure] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, deciding to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to analyze and study current economic situation and economic work. Recently, lead prices have continued to consolidate on a subdued note, with suppliers' hedging willingness strengthening and some lead ingots being gradually transferred to delivery warehouses...

SMM July 31 news: Metals Market Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with LME lead and SHFE lead falling, LME lead down 0.18% and SHFE lead down 0.67%. LME tin and SHFE zinc rose over 2%, with LME tin up 2.52% and SHFE tin up 2.15%. LME copper, LME zinc, and LME nickel all rose over 1%, with LME copper up 1.3%, LME zinc up 1.02%, and LME nickel also up 1.02%. Alumina main contract fell 0.34%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.39%. Overnight, the ferrous metals complex mostly fell, with only stainless steel rising, up 0.51%. Iron ore fell 0.96%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.74%, and rebar fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.35% and coke fell 1.86%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold rose 1.61%, and COMEX silver rose 2.02%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.2%, and SHFE silver rose 1.82%. As of 6:42 a.m. on July 31, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, decided to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 and decided that the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing in October this year. The main agenda is for the Political Bureau to report its work to the Central Committee and study major issues concerning persistently advancing full and rigorous Party self-governance. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and made arrangements for economic work in H2. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting. It was noted at the meeting that since the 18th CPC National Congress, full and rigorous Party self-governance has achieved great accomplishments, opening a new chapter in the self-reform of a century-old party, and driving historic achievements and transformations in the cause of the Party and the country, securing the historical initiative of strengthening both the Party and the nation. At the same time, as profound changes take place in global, national and Party conditions, full and rigorous Party self-governance faces many new circumstances and problems. The entire Party must, from the strategic perspective of consolidating the Party’s ruling position and fulfilling its missions and tasks, deeply recognize the great significance of persistently advancing full and rigorous Party self-governance, strengthen confidence, maintain resolve, uphold and apply the valuable experience of full and rigorous Party self-governance in the new era with higher standards and more concrete measures, address and solve prominent problems in Party building, and consolidate and develop the positive political environment formed through governing the Party. [National Energy Administration: China's renewable energy power generation share exceeded 40% for the first time in H1] From the press conference held by the National Energy Administration, it was learned that in H1, China’s renewable energy developed rapidly, with its power generation accounting for more than 40% of total generation for the first time. In H1, national renewable energy power generation reached nearly 2 trillion kWh, up about 9% YoY, accounting for 41.2% of total power generation, exceeding 40% for the first time. Among this, wind and solar power generation totaled 1.25 trillion kWh, up 9.3% YoY. In terms of installations, new renewable energy installations in H1 reached 117 million kW, accounting for 73.9% of total new installations, continuing to dominate new capacity. As of end-June, the country’s renewable energy installed capacity reached 2.455 billion kW, accounting for over 60% of China’s total installed capacity. (CCTV News) [China’s coal-fired power generation share fell below 50% of total generation for the first time in H1] From today’s press conference held by the National Energy Administration, it was learned that in H1, China’s green and low-carbon energy transformation accelerated. As of end-June, combined wind and solar power installed capacity reached 1.95 billion kW, up 16.8% YoY. In terms of power generation, wind and solar power generation exceeded 1.2 trillion kWh in H1, accounting for about a quarter of the country’s total electricity consumption. Meanwhile, China’s coal-fired power generation was 2.5 trillion kWh, with its share of total generation falling to 49.7%, marking the first time that H1 coal-fired generation share fell below 50%. (CCTV News) Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index continued to fall, dropping 0.83% to 99.98, breaking below the 100 integer level and posting a three-day losing streak. US economic growth in Q2 was lower than expected, but strong consumer spending and business investment indicated resilient domestic demand. Preliminary data released Thursday by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that Q2 annualized real GDP growth was 1.5%, below market expectations. A decline in net exports dragged on the overall figure, but consumer spending and business investment remained strong, partially offsetting external pressures. Data released Thursday by the US government showed that the US PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM in June, the first monthly decline since the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The PCE annual inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from May’s three-year high of 4.1%. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to ease. The cooling in June was mainly due to falling oil prices after the US and Iran reached a fragile temporary ceasefire agreement. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate dropped from 3.4% to 3.3%. The Fed regards the PCE index, especially the core PCE, as the most accurate gauge of US inflation trends. Currently, the gauge shows US inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for a sixth consecutive year. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 63.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today the market will see the release of China’s July official manufacturing PMI, US Q2 employment cost index QoQ, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide house price index MoM, Switzerland June real retail sales YoY, France July CPI MoM preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change and unemployment rate, Canada May GDP MoM, Eurozone July CPI YoY preliminary and MoM preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of July 31. In addition, China will start a new round of fuel price adjustments. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30. Japanese NAND flash memory maker Kioxia reported earnings. The Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference on monetary policy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI down 0.59% and Brent down 1.23%, as the market continued to await progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The recently slowing crude oil lightering service in the Strait of Hormuz has revived, helping move millions of barrels of crude out of the strait. Amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, this transport method has once again played a key role. The lightering mode emerged during the most intense period of conflict and has become a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Vessels transport crude from the Persian Gulf—often with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers with another tanker outside the Strait of Hormuz, which then delivers the crude to buyers around the world. Although crude transport through the Strait of Hormuz is still below pre-conflict levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped out has played an important role in easing market concerns about oil price spikes. Two people with direct knowledge said at least two shipping companies involved in Hormuz transport have seen their lightering volume approach pre-escalation levels. (Jin10 Data APP) Turkey expects crude oil flows from Iraq to continue despite the failure to renew a decades-old pipeline agreement that expired on Monday, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter. Officials said talks on Tuesday between Turkish President Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi on the 986 km (613 mile) Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline failed to reach a final result, but the two sides agreed to keep crude flowing while negotiations continue. They added that any eventual agreement would be backdated to July 27, the expiration date of the previous 53-year deal. (Jin10 Data APP)