SMM, August 14: LME copper prices continued to consolidate at highs this week. On Monday, LME copper prices opened at $14,063/mt and then moved sideways within the $13,950-14,280/mt range. Payable indicator trends for ex-China copper scrap showed some divergence. In particular, the payable indicator for bare bright copper stayed high throughout the week on tight supply, with mainstream quotations still hovering around 98.5%-99%. In contrast, affected by maintenance at some smelters and demand curbed by high copper prices, the consumption pace of No. 1 and No. 2 copper slowed slightly, and their quotations pulled back slightly. Currently, transaction payable indicators are mostly around 96%-97% for No. 1 copper, around 95.5% for US No. 2 copper, and mostly around 94.5%-95% for European No. 2 copper. Transaction side, the continued consolidation of copper prices at highs further dampened downstream purchasing interest. Combined with the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders were relatively mediocre, and enterprises mainly stayed on the sidelines and made just-in-time procurement, leaving the overall market trading atmosphere sluggish. Some traders, affected by the need to recoup funds, became more willing to sell and could only facilitate transactions through moderate price concessions, which also led to some pullback in No. 1 and No. 2 copper prices. In contrast, supply of bare bright copper remained tight, and its strong substitution properties for copper cathode provided relatively strong downside support for prices; its discount rate did not loosen noticeably. Looking ahead to next week, with copper prices still high and downstream consumption slowing, social inventories of copper scrap in some regions are expected to accumulate slightly. For bare bright copper, supported by tight supply, the payable indicator is expected to stay high; for No. 1 and No. 2 copper, prices may still face slight pullback pressure amid slowing smelting demand and weak market transactions. Overall, trading in the ex-China copper scrap market is expected to remain relatively sluggish next week, and payable indicator trends may continue to diverge.

This week (August 10-August 13), Yangshan copper premium warrant transaction weekly average price range was $91-104/mt (QP August, average $98/mt); B/L transaction weekly average price range was $87-99/mt (QP September, average $93/mt); EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $57-69/mt (QP September, average $63/mt). As of August 13, the exchange-rate-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper versus the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.128, with an import loss of around 1,004.08 yuan/mt, which narrowed by about 381 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the LME copper August-date backwardation structure widened from the same period last week, with the carry spread between August and September dates at -$117.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER registered copper B/L are around $85-95/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $100-105/mt; mainstream offers for EQ copper B/L are around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums trended weaker, as the SHFE/LME price ratio remained unfavorable, LME nearby contracts showed a steep backwardation structure, and rising copper prices dampened consumption, leaving downstream buying sentiment weak. However, supplier offers had not yet shown a clear retreat, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the market gradually widened. In addition, according to SMM, the opening of the copper cathode export window in this round was mainly driven by the substantial backwardation structure in nearby LME contracts. Changes in SHFE and LME prices and term structures created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, with export volume currently planned at about 20,000 mt. However, as the August contract approached delivery, copper cathode exports mainly flowed into China bonded zones. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (August 13), copper inventories in China bonded zones rose by about 4,100 mt WoW from the previous period (August 6) to 35,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventories rose by 4,200 mt WoW to 31,100 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventories fell by 100 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The main reasons for the increase in bonded zone inventories were: 1. The recent opening of the export window created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, causing cargoes to concentrate in bonded zones; 2. Previously, cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses arrived at ports in succession, further lifting inventory levels. Looking ahead, the market will wrestle with whether the SHFE/LME price ratio can recover and with the supply-demand pattern. On the supply side, supply will be shaped by short-term import arrivals and higher exports, while medium- and long-term supply will remain constrained by the US siphoning effect. On the demand side, weak consumption has left downstream buyers with low psychological expectations for transaction prices. Traders are expected to maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers set to grind on. In addition, going forward, as the SHFE and LME term structures are further adjusted, the copper cathode export window and cargo flow directions will still need to be continuously monitored.

This week (Aug. 3 – Aug. 7), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $101–$112/mt, QP August, with an average of $106/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $96–$107/mt, QP September, with an average of $102/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $64–$73/mt, QP September, with an average of $69/mt. As of Aug. 7, the ex-exchange rate SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract against LME copper was 1.1247, with an import loss of around 1,385.43 yuan/mt, expanding by about 857 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure for the August LME copper date widened WoW, with the carry spread between the August and September dates at −$61.53/mt. Currently, mainstream offer prices for ER registered copper B/L have dropped to double-digit levels; mainstream warrant offer prices for registered copper were near $100/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums pulled back from high levels, mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, compounded by the widening backwardation structure of nearby LME contracts, which increased suppliers' willingness to offer cargo. Meanwhile, as copper prices surged, downstream consumption demand was poor. Additionally, high premiums in the domestic market previously attracted cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which gradually arrived in China, causing temporary congestion at Shanghai Port. Together with some export cargo pressuring prices, market spot premiums weakened. According to SMM data, China's bonded zone copper inventories as of Thursday this week (Aug. 6) decreased by about 6,000 mt WoW from the previous period (Jul. 30) to 31,100 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory decreased by 6,500 mt WoW to 26,900 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 500 mt WoW to 4,200 mt. The weekly bonded zone inventory decline was mainly because of reports that cargo ships were heading to the US. Additionally, the slight opening of the export window led to small-scale exports by some smelters to the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the siphoning effect from North America continues, so the logic of overall supply constraints in the market remains. However, with the SHFE/LME price ratio significantly inverted, consumption demand suppressed by high copper prices, and expectations of concentrated cargo arrivals at ports, traders' psychological price expectations for spot cargo are rapidly declining, and imported copper premiums are expected to see a temporary pullback. Additionally, with the export window slightly open, smelters have export expectations. According to SMM, export volumes in the first week of August up to now have been relatively limited, and future export volumes need continued monitoring.

SMM, August 7: LME copper prices continued to rise this week. LME copper opened on Monday at $13,850/mt before moving steadily higher, posting a WoW gain of 2.8% to return to a historically high range. Although copper prices were already elevated, payable indicators for copper scrap outside China still showed considerable resilience. Currently, available copper scrap inventories in major consuming regions—including China, Japan, South Korea and India—are generally low, and supply from outside China remains tight, lending firm support to copper scrap prices. In terms of pricing, the quote indicator for bare bright copper outside China largely held at 98.5%–99%, No.1 copper around 97%–98%, and No.2 copper concentrated in the 94%–96% range. On the transaction side, high copper prices boosted suppliers' willingness to sell outside China, but with spot cargoes in short supply, suppliers still showed a strong tendency to hold prices firm. Downstream, against a backdrop of historically high copper prices, enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement to meet production needs, with limited willingness to actively add inventory. Overall, market transactions improved somewhat WoW, but volume growth remained constrained by both high prices and tight supply. At the same time, the impact of tight copper ore supply is gradually spilling over into the secondary resource market. Tight supply of concentrates has further heightened market attention and buying demand for copper scrap, while copper scrap itself has limited supply elasticity and is unlikely to expand rapidly in the short term. With both ore and secondary supply tightening in tandem, payable indicators for copper scrap outside China are receiving relatively firm support. Looking ahead to next week, with copper scrap supply outside China expected to stay tight and social inventory in major consuming regions holding at low levels, payable indicators for copper scrap outside China are likely to stay high in the near term. If copper prices continue to consolidate at highs, suppliers' willingness to sell may strengthen further, but with downstream procurement dominated by just-in-time demand, the improvement in overall transaction volumes is expected to remain relatively limited.

On the macro front , this week copper prices drifted higher overall. Negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz made progress, and market expectations for a near-term reopening of the strait heightened. International oil prices pulled back accordingly, easing inflation worries from energy prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. July ADP employment figure came in below market expectations, and the cooling labour market also dampened market expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes this year. Although some Fed officials still sent hawkish signals and the strait reopening arrangements are not yet fully clear, their pressure on copper prices was relatively limited. Additionally, expectations that the U.S. may impose tariffs on imported copper continued to attract copper cathode flows to the U.S., driving inventory accumulation at COMEX. Meanwhile, LME inventories and deliverable stocks kept declining, creating a clear regional mismatch of exchange inventories. U.S. tariff premiums and tightening supply outside the U.S. combined to push LME copper prices higher. As of 11:00 Beijing time on August 7, 2026, LME copper hit a low of $13,769/mt this week before shooting up to a high of $14,369/mt, up $600/mt from the low, a gain of about 4.36%. The most-traded SHFE copper contract hit a low of 105,140 yuan/mt, then rebounded to 108,470 yuan/mt, up 3,330 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 3.17%. Fundamentals side , as of August 6, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China increased by 7,300 mt WoW to 119,200 mt, extending the accumulation trend. On the supply side, arrivals of both domestic copper and imported copper cathode increased recently, with imported materials such as Peruvian large plates, ESOX, and Myanmar copper gradually circulating in the market. Combined with higher copper prices boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, spot supply that was previously tight gradually eased. On the demand side, end-user orders were generally weak amid the traditional consumption off-season, and high copper prices further suppressed downstream purchase willingness. Market transactions were sluggish, and purchases remained mainly need-based. However, hi-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper supplies were relatively limited, and transactions improved for some low-priced cargoes, still providing some support to spot premiums. Looking ahead to next week , the market will continue to watch whether the U.S.-Iran deal materializes, the Strait of Hormuz reopening arrangements, and Fed officials’ comments on the future rate path. If expectations for the strait's reopening persist, oil prices and inflation worries will cool further, and together with a slowing U.S. labour market, macro sentiment may still support copper prices. Should negotiations falter again, geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations could increase volatility in the futures market. In addition, watch out for a resurgence of resource protectionist policies outside China, which could further disrupt global copper flows. Fundamentals side, increasing domestic and imported copper supply will continue to ease domestic spot supply tightness, but high copper prices, inventory accumulation, and the off-season will limit downstream restocking, and SHFE copper spot premiums still face downward pressure. Next week, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs with an upward bias, with LME copper likely to outperform SHFE copper, but SHFE copper’s upside room will still be constrained by weak domestic demand.

SMM, July 31: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of drifting higher. On Monday, LME copper prices opened at $13,637.5/mt and then drifted higher. Although copper prices edged up, the overall payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap did not pull back significantly. In terms of prices, the transaction payable rate for bare bright copper stayed within the 98.5%-99% range. For No.1 and No.2 copper, impacted by the concentrated maintenance period at some smelters, demand side slowed slightly, and the quoted payable indicators edged down by an average of about 0.2 percentage points. On the transaction side, the stronger copper prices boosted ex-China suppliers' willingness to sell to some extent. Meanwhile, as the ex-China recycling off-season gradually ended, the tight circulation of copper scrap in the market eased slightly from before. However, against the backdrop of high copper prices and the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders still performed relatively flat, with purchases remaining just-in-time procurement, and overall buying interest limited. Notably, spot premiums for copper cathode stayed high recently, coupled with tight spot supply of copper cathode, which fueled relatively strong demand for bare bright copper, a direct substitute for copper cathode. Consequently, the payable rate for bare bright copper did not pull back with rising copper prices but instead retained some upside support. Overall, transactions in the ex-China copper scrap market improved WoW, but the market atmosphere remained sluggish. Looking ahead to next week, with copper prices staying high and downstream orders in the consumption off-season remaining weak, downstream enterprises are expected to maintain cautious procurement sentiment, and demand side is unlikely to see a significant volume increase. In terms of payable rates, tight supply will continue to support prices, but demand, dominated by just-in-time procurement, will cap further upside room. The payable rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to remain stable overall in the short term.