SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading:

SMM June 17 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with SHFE tin slightly down. SHFE copper rose 0.45%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. SHFE lead gained 0.35%. SHFE aluminum edged down 0.02%, while SHFE zinc advanced 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract increased 0.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract climbed 0.64%. Overnight ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.07%, stainless steel down 0.2%, rebar gaining 0.17%, and HRC slightly higher. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.08%, coke increased 0.85%. Overnight overseas market metals saw LME base metals generally rise, with LME copper up 0.52%, LME aluminum gaining 0.56%, LME lead rising 0.8%, LME zinc jumping 1.41%, while LME tin fell 0.44% and LME nickel declined 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold dropped 1.4%; COMEX silver edged up 0.04%. SHFE gold fell 1.37%, SHFE silver decreased 0.08%. As of 8:15 am June 17, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front Domestic: [Notice: MOFCOM to hold press conference on 19th regarding key work in commerce sector] The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 pm on Thursday, June 19, 2025, where its spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and take questions from reporters. [NAFMII convenes symposium on supporting high-quality development of automakers in China's interbank market] NAFMII held a symposium on June 16, 2025, discussing interbank market support for high-quality development of automakers. Representatives from automakers and lead underwriters attended, with the meeting chaired by NAFMII Vice President Zhong Xu. The association presented interbank market support for the automotive industry. Representatives from 9 companies - FAW, SAIC, BAIC Group, BYD, Geely Holding, Great Wall Motor, NIO Group, XPeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group - described challenges faced amid cut-throat competition and proposed suggestions for optimizing financing environment. Lead underwriters conducted on-site matchmaking for automakers' financing needs. Next, NAFMII will implement the Party Central Committee and State Council's strategic deployment on developing new quality productive forces through technological innovation, strengthen bond market system building and product innovation, optimize financial services tailored for the automotive sector, encourage automakers to increase bond financing while maintaining healthy development and avoiding disorderly competition, and actively promote intelligent, high-end, green transformation to advance China's automotive industry toward high-quality development. Cailian Press) [CPCA: 52,000 Pickup Trucks Sold in May, Up 13.6% YoY] According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in May 2025, 51,700 pickup trucks were produced nationwide, up 20.8% compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, 255,000 pickup trucks were produced, up 23.4% YoY. In May 2025, 52,000 pickup trucks were sold in the market, up 13.6% compared to May 2024, and down 8.1% MoM from the previous month, remaining at a high level in the past five years. From January to May 2025, 258,000 pickup trucks were sold, up 18.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. [Goldman Sachs Bullish Again: Global Capital Returns to China, Optimistic About China's "Top 10" Stocks] Kinger Lau, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, recently released a research report titled "The Return of China's Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment prospects for China's private enterprises are improving. Goldman Sachs has listed China's "Top 10," namely the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on. They are: Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta. 》Click for details US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.03% overnight, closing at 98.15. The market is focused on the tense situation between Israel and Iran, as well as the US Fed's policy meeting this week. The Fed meeting will conclude on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching how the Fed views recent data, which generally indicate softening economic activity, but the risk of rising price pressures remains high. Other Currencies: Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) began their annual summit in Canada. With about three weeks left until Trump's deadline for trade agreements, the market remains nervous as agreements with major trading partners such as the EU and Japan have not yet been signed. They will be looking for any progress made in any bilateral talks with the US on the sidelines of the G7 leaders' summit. (Webstock Inc.) Data: Today, data such as the Bank of Japan's policy benchmark interest rate on June 17, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in June, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, the US monthly import price index for May, the US annual import price index for May, the US monthly retail sales for May, the US monthly core retail sales for May, the US annual retail sales for May, the US monthly retail sales control group associated with GDP for May - seasonally adjusted, the US monthly industrial output for May, the US capacity utilization rate for May, the US monthly manufacturing output for May, the US manufacturing capacity utilization rate for May, and the US annual industrial output for May - seasonally adjusted, will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: Today, 182 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) matured; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision; US President Trump visited Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. Crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.06% and Brent down 2.33%. Market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supplies in the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The US Navy said on Monday that electronic interference with commercial shipping navigation systems around the Strait of Hormuz had surged in recent days, affecting vessels passing through the area. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or about 18-19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate, and fuels, passes through the Strait. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces about 3.3 million bpd of oil and fuels and exports more than 2 million bpd. Analysts and OPEC observers said that the spare capacity of OPEC oil-producing countries to increase production to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. A preliminary survey showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories likely fell last week, while gasoline inventories may have increased. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories increased by about 600,000 barrels in the week ending June 13. US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were expected to decrease by about 100,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories were expected to increase by 200,000 barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 10:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM June 6 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals generally rose overnight, with SHFE tin up 1.66%, SHFE copper up 0.58%, SHFE nickel up 0.28%, SHFE lead down 0.36%, SHFE aluminum up 0.1%, and SHFE zinc down 0.27%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.17%. Ferrous metals series all rose overnight, with iron ore up 1%, stainless steel slightly up, rebar up 1.15%, HRC up 1.01%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal surged 4.64% while coke gained 1.64%. LME base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with LME copper up 0.89%, LME aluminum down 0.32%, LME lead down 0.48%, LME zinc down 0.5%, LME tin up 1.07%, and LME nickel up 0.32%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.68% while COMEX silver rose 3.31%. SHFE gold dropped 0.46% and SHFE silver climbed 2.89%. As of 8:25 am June 6, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front 》Xi Jinping held phone talks with US President Trump Domestic news: [Commerce Ministry responds to auto industry's cut-throat competition: Strengthens comprehensive rectification and compliance guidance] A reporter raised questions about the automotive industry. Commerce Ministry spokesperson Yongqian He stated that the auto sector is a pillar and strategic industry of the national economy, playing a vital role in stabilizing growth and expanding consumption. In recent years, the Ministry has implemented car trade-in policies and auto circulation reform pilots to continuously unleash consumption potential and cultivate new growth points. Recently, relevant departments organized symposiums with industry associations, research institutions and enterprises to gather opinions for improving auto circulation. Next, the Ministry will collaborate with other departments to enhance market tracking, research and policy guidance, remove circulation bottlenecks, and better meet diverse consumer needs. Regarding current cut-throat competition in the industry, the Ministry will coordinate with relevant authorities to strengthen comprehensive governance and compliance guidance, maintain fair competition, and promote healthy industry development. 》Click for details [Commerce Ministry responds to US steel/aluminum tariff hike: Urges US to stop overstretching national security concept] This afternoon, the Commerce Ministry held a regular press conference where the spokesperson introduced recent key work in commerce. A reporter asked, "The US has increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, and the policy officially took effect on the 4th. What comments does the Ministry of Commerce have on this?" Spokesperson He Yongqian of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China has repeatedly emphasized that the Section 232 tariffs are a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which have long been ruled by the WTO's dispute settlement mechanism as violating WTO rules. This time, the US has once again raised tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivative products, which not only harms others and itself, does not help maintain industrial security, but will also seriously disrupt the stability of the global industry chain and supply chain. The US approach has been opposed by multiple countries. China urges the US to respect economic laws, abandon the zero-sum mentality, stop overgeneralizing and abusing the concept of national security, work with all parties to maintain a rules-based multilateral trading system, resolve respective concerns through equal dialogue, and jointly maintain the stability of the global industry chain and supply chain. 》Click to view details [Ministry of Commerce: China will approve rare earth export license applications that meet regulations] The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. A media outlet asked that some foreign enterprises believe that the process for obtaining rare earth export licenses in China is slow, and their enterprises may face production shutdowns. How does China respond to this? In response, Spokesperson He Yongqian of the Ministry of Commerce stated that rare earths and related items have obvious dual-use attributes for both military and civilian purposes, and implementing export controls on them is an international common practice. The Chinese government reviews export license applications for dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations. For applications that meet the regulations, China will approve them to promote and facilitate compliant trade. 》Click to view details [Breaking with convention! The central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation. What signals does the first "advance notice" release?] The central bank announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding methods, with a term of 3 months (91 days). 》Click to view details [Latest statement from the CSRC! Relating to strengthening the protection of small and medium-sized investors and supporting the listing of high-quality unprofitable technology enterprises] ① Cheng Hehong, the chief lawyer of the CSRC, stated at the 2025 Tianjin Wudadao Financial Forum that the CSRC will expedite the research and formulation of "Several Opinions on Further Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium-Sized Investors in the Capital Market" to enhance the level of investor protection; ② Cheng Hehong also proposed that science and technology innovation bonds of high-quality enterprises should be included in benchmark market-making varieties, and support the issuance of REITs for new-type infrastructure projects such as artificial intelligence and data centers. 》Click to view details US dollar: The US dollar index fell by 0.04% overnight, closing at 98.75. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency in Beijing on June 5, on the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a scheduled phone call with US President Donald Trump. The two heads of state agreed that their respective teams should continue to implement the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to its highest level in seven months last week, suggesting that the labour market is softening amid intensifying economic headwinds caused by tariffs. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that the US non-farm payrolls report for May, due to be released on Friday, could influence the US Fed's interest rate policy, while market focus will also be on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. (Webstock Inc.) In other currency news: The Bank of England announced on Thursday that it had allocated a record 68.106 billion pounds (approximately $92.39 billion) in seven-day funds through its weekly short-term repo operations. This figure surpassed the previous record of 64 billion pounds set in April. The Bank of England provides reserves to banks through short-term repo operations while gradually selling government bonds purchased under its quantitative easing programme. (Huitong Finance) In terms of data: Today, data to be released includes Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly industrial output rate for April, Germany's working-day adjusted annual industrial output rate for April, Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly export rate for April, France's trade balance for April, the final seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP rate for the eurozone in Q1, the final seasonally adjusted annual GDP rate for the eurozone in Q1, the monthly retail sales rate for the eurozone in April, the annual retail sales rate for the eurozone in April, the monthly leading indicator rate for Canada in May, the seasonally adjusted change in US non-farm payrolls for May, the annual average hourly wage rate for the US in May, the change in US private non-farm payrolls for May, the US labour force participation rate for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US manufacturing employment for May, the US unemployment rate for May, the change in Canadian employment for May, the Canadian unemployment rate for May, and other data. In addition, it is worth noting that Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at the Economic Club of New York, and Patrick Harker, the 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will speak about the economic outlook. In terms of crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.64% and Brent up 0.66%. Improved trade relations are expected to boost oil demand, supporting oil prices. On Wednesday, data showed that US gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected, reflecting weak demand in the world's largest economy, and oil prices fell by 1%. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, cut the price of its crude oil for Asian buyers in July to its lowest level in nearly two months, curbing the rise in crude oil prices. (Webstock Inc.)