[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Rebound Lifted Sentiment, Spot Quotes Rose Across the Board] Spot market, boosted by the rebound in futures prices, ADC12 quotes rose across the board today, with the SMM average price of ADC12 raised by 300 yuan/mt. Driven by the cost side, producers actively recouped earlier losses, generally raising prices by 200-400 yuan/mt. However, affected by wild swings in prices during the week, downstream purchase sentiment remained cautious, with most buyers staying on the sidelines and only restocking to meet immediate needs, while the overall pace of market transactions was stable. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and a mild release of supply, ADC12 prices were expected to hold up well.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Has Seen Wide Swings for Many Days, While Alloys Rose Strongly in Tandem] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations shifting up significantly. Most producers raised prices by 500–600 yuan/mt. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen rapidly, providing a clear boost to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand remained relatively stable. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiries were generally average, while downstream procurement still mainly focused on restocking as needed. Supported by cost pressure and market expectations, enterprises showed a relatively clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend still depends on the recovery of end-use consumption. If orders in the die-casting industry increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further upward; if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued increase in the supply-side operating rate, prices will shift into high-level consolidation.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Prices Pull Back as Aluminum Scrap Holders Are Reluctant to Sell; Overall Market Trading Remains Muted] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations moving up markedly. Most producers’ price adjustments were concentrated in the 500–600 yuan/mt range. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen quickly, providing a clear lift to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand has been relatively steady. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiry activity were generally average, and downstream purchasing remains mainly restocking on an as-needed basis. Supported by cost-driven momentum and market expectations, enterprises have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery of end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move up further; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Middle East Geopolitical Risks Heighten Supply Concerns; Aluminum Prices to Trend Strongly Higher in the Short Term] Overall, although domestic social inventory continues to build up, the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the focus of global attention. If the geopolitical conflict continues, expectations for a tightening in global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will have strong upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Price Pullback Spurs Aluminum Scrap Hoarding; Overall Market Trading Remains Subdued] Overall ADC12 market quotations moved lower, with most cuts in the 200-400 yuan/mt range. The adjustments were mainly driven by a downward shift in the cost center and subdued downstream purchasing. However, against the backdrop of a price pullback, aluminum scrap traders’ reluctance to sell has become pronounced, leaving limited room for raw material costs to fall further. Enterprises have been generally cautious in making price adjustments, and most producers remain bullish on the outlook. In the short term, with cost support and a mild release of supply, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery in end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further higher; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.