[SMM Aluminum Flash] On August 14, LME aluminum inventory stood at 248,300 mt, down 1,700 mt, or 0.68%, from the previous day; over the past week, LME aluminum inventory fell by a total of 8,100.00 mt, or 3.16%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory fell by a total of 34,800 mt, or 12.29%.

SMM August 14 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals moved lower. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.51%. SHFE tin rose 0.17%. SHFE nickel fell 1.12%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.43%, and the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1.27%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.42%, rebar rose 0.43%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.97%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.25%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.29%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum fell 0.23%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc fell 0.45%. LME tin fell 0.24%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver fell 1.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.94%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 3.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 1.3% to 1,593.5 points. As of 11:39 on August 14, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Platinum: On the spot side, mainstream platinum quotations are at a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, accompanied by the clearing of some deeply discounted cargoes and the narrowing of import price spreads... Macro Front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 348 billion yuan on the day and 250.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC conducted 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, the PBOC made a net injection of 348 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos. As 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos matured this week, the PBOC made a net injection of 250.5 billion yuan for the week. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.89. US July PPI data showed inflation was cooling, and along with falling oil prices, markets further added to bets that the US Fed will not hike rates next month. (Wallstreetcn) US July PPI data came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed consumer price data—which showed inflation was slowing—further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early days of the war was continuing to fade. However, renewed Middle East tensions raised concerns about stubborn inflation. US Fed officials will also receive additional consumer and producer price data and another labour market report before their next policy decision in mid-September. For now, policymakers need to weigh persistent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Several PPI components are also closely watched by the US Fed because they feed into its preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index. These components released mixed signals. Portfolio management fees posted their largest increase in more than a year, hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while physician services and hospital inpatient care prices were mild. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME FedWatch: at the US Fed's September meeting, the probabilities are no change (65.2%) and a cumulative 25bp hike (34.8%). At the US Fed's October meeting, they are no change (50.1%), a cumulative 25bp hike (41.8%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (8.1%). (Jin10 Data App) Other currencies: Speculative investors are increasingly betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates again in November, as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swap market pricing currently implies around a 45% probability that the RBA will raise rates by 25bp by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. The November 2026 interbank cash rate futures traded on the Australian Securities Exchange derivatives market saw trading activity jump on the day to the highest level in more than three months, signalling increased speculative interest. These bets suggest that the market increasingly doubts that the RBA's tightening cycle is over. Although policymakers kept rates unchanged this week, with inflation still above the RBA's 2%-3% target range, traders will continue to monitor upcoming price and labour market data for clues on whether another rate hike is needed this year. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: Releases due today include China's July total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), China's July total electricity consumption (TBD), US July retail sales MoM, US August preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, US June business inventories MoM, US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, France July CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q2 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance, and Canada June wholesale sales MoM, among other data. In addition, China will open a new round of refined oil product price adjustment window (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). Crude oil: As of 11:39, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.09% and Brent up 0.06%. IEA and OPEC successively lowered demand expectations, while Iran-related tensions, though intense, did not escalate further, limiting oil price gains. The refined product market was under more severe pressure, as the US diesel crack spread approached $100 per barrel, near the peak levels seen in the early stages of the US-Iran conflict in March this year. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 9 million barrels per day over the past week, higher than most industry estimates, leaving considerable uncertainty over the size of the actual supply gap. Francisco Blanch, head of global research at Bank of America, said in a Bloomberg Television interview, “Unless the geopolitical situation improves, it is hard for me to see oil prices pulling back quickly. If inventories are depleted, price fluctuations will inevitably amplify sharply, and demand will be forced to contract.” (Wallstreetcn) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Liquidity Tightening Concerns Ease Marginally, Aluminum Prices Stay Under Pressure at Highs in Near Term] Overall, on the macro front, US PPI and core PPI for July both declined YoY, coming in below both expectations and previous readings. Inflationary pressure eased further, and market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in September were scaled back, marginally easing concerns over liquidity tightening. On the fundamentals front, aluminum ingot inventories continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. The pace of production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters was faster than the market had previously expected, and the supply-tightness premium priced in earlier faced pressure to unwind. Although macro recovery and continued destocking in the first half of August supported stronger aluminum prices, market sentiment shifted, and aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the near term, with upside room likely to be capped to some extent by production resumption expectations.

SMM August 14 news: On the metals market front: Overnight, base metals in both overseas and domestic markets broadly fell, with only LME copper, LME tin, and SHFE tin rising together. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME tin rose 0.52%, LME aluminum led losses with a 2.28% decline, SHFE nickel fell 0.88%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%, and the remaining metals saw modest fluctuations in their declines. The main alumina contract rose 0.26%, while the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.9%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose, with stainless steel the only decliner, down 0.83%. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all gained around 0.4%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.7%, and coke rose 0.55%. On the precious metals front, overnight COMEX gold fell 1.35%, and COMEX silver fell 1.7%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold fell 1.24%, and SHFE silver fell 1.48%. As of 6:38 on August 14, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's New Round of Continuous Air Quality Improvement Action Plan Is Being Formulated] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (13th) as part of the themed series "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan". At the briefing, it was noted that China's air pollution control achievements are encouraging, but there is still no room to relax or take a break, and patience and resolve must be maintained. At present, a new round of continuous air quality improvement action plans is being formulated at an accelerated pace, and the battle to defend blue skies will focus on being "higher, more accurate, and more scientific." (CCTV News) [National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeds 900 Million mt] Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, said at the press conference on the themed series "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan" held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 that as of the end of July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had exceeded 930 million mt, which has effectively promoted green and low-carbon transformation while driving low-cost carbon reduction across industries. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promote the Issuance of "Computing Power Vouchers," "Model Vouchers," and "Corpus Vouchers" to Lower the Cost of Using Digital Factors such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting Private Investment Development." It mentions carrying out computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations, supporting private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for R&D training and application of large models, and encouraging universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various types of business entities, including private enterprises. It will publish and dynamically update a public data openness list, support private enterprises in conducting deep development and scenario-based utilization of specific public data, promote the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers," and reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark enterprises and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, guide private enterprises to participate in digital transformation project construction and scenario operations in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It will encourage private enterprises to build new-type infrastructure demonstration projects such as blockchain applications and large-scale robotics applications. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.96. The US July PPI data came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed consumer price data, which showed inflation is slowing, further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early stage of the war is continuing to fade. However, the recent re-escalation of Middle East tensions has raised concerns about stubborn inflation. Fed officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data as well as another labour market report before their next policy decision in mid-September. At present, policymakers need to balance persistent inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring. Several PPI components are also particularly watched by the Fed because they feed into its preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index. The signals released by these components were mixed. Portfolio management fees recorded their largest increase in more than a year, hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while prices for physician services and hospital inpatient care were mild. (Jinshi Data APP) Market pricing showed an increase in bets that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in September. The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range in September was around 65%, up from around 60% before the PPI report. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed official Hammack said in the latest remarks: "The Fed must raise interest rates now because current policy is not restrictive, and inflation has risen amid recent shocks. Excessively rapid growth could put additional pressure on prices. Rate hikes may bring pain, but we cannot allow economic and investment growth to become so rapid that the economy overheats. Current inflation is broad-based, not limited to certain sectors. The Fed must be held accountable for inflation data, which is very important." (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 65.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 34.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 50.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps rate hike is 8.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: Data due for release today include China's July total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), China's July total electricity consumption (TBD), the US July retail sales MoM, the US August preliminary one-year inflation expectations, the US June business inventories MoM, the US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, France's final July CPI MoM, the Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY revision, the Eurozone Q2 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, the Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance, and Canada's June wholesale sales MoM. In addition, a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil products will open (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). On the crude oil front: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI crude down 2.47% and Brent crude down 2.23%, both notching a second consecutive decline. According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, a spokesman for Iran's Joint Military Command said: "Without approval, no ship can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz must obtain Iran's permission, and Iran is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces are monitoring US movements in the region. Trump's claims about controlling the Strait are lies and merely a display of his military's helplessness. From past to present, the US military has long had a full taste of the strength and steadfastness of the Iranian nation. The US keeps seeking to do evil and create instability in the region, and its groundless threats, in the face of the unprecedented comprehensive readiness of heroic Islamic fighters in the armed forces, will only appear even more helpless and powerless. Iran's armed forces will not hesitate in the slightest in defending the nation's rights, national sovereignty, the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and our dear country, and will respond to any type and any level of threat with heavier and fiercer responses than before." (Jinshi Data APP) Iraq's Oil Marketing Company said that a major Abu Dhabi energy company is among the companies that purchase its crude and ship cargoes out through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier reports said the trading arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company moved cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz to offer Iraqi crude supplies to Asian buyers, a practice that typically involves tankers switching off their transponders to avoid detection, ensuring Middle Eastern oil continues to flow to global markets. Ali Nizar, director general of Iraq's Oil Marketing Company, said Iraq's oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz jumped to about 2 million barrels per day this month. While that is up from levels in the months after the start of the Iran war, it remains below the country's total exports of about 3.4 million barrels per day before the conflict. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM News, August 13: PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of surveyed PV aluminum frame enterprises remained stable. Some leading PV frame enterprises reported that their current orders were ample and sufficient to keep production running at high levels until month-end. Downstream, PV module enterprises did not change their procurement strategies because of the recent drift higher in aluminum prices and continued to purchase as needed. According to SMM, frame enterprises had no plans to adjust processing fees in the short term. At the current stage, supply-side and demand-side fundamentals in the industry were relatively balanced, so the operating rate of PV aluminum frame enterprises would continue to run at a steady pace. Raw Material Prices: During the period (August 10-13, 2026), the weekly average SMM A00 aluminum ingot price was 24,145 yuan/mt, up 2.0% from the previous weekly average price. Overall, macro front, the YoY growth rates of US July CPI and core CPI slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild pullback in inflation eased concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed, weakened the short-term momentum for US Treasury yields to shoot up, and eased macro liquidity pressure. Combined with lingering differences over the Middle East situation, these factors provided staged support for aluminum prices. Fundamentals side, aluminum ingot inventory continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. Supply side outside China, the UAE's EGA disclosed progress on the resumption of production at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 electrolysis cells have been restarted, and the pace of the production resumption was faster than the market had previously expected. The previously traded supply tightness premium faced give-back pressure. Although macro recovery and continued destocking supported higher aluminum prices in the first half of August, due to a shift in market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short term, and upside room will be suppressed to some extent by production resumption expectations. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,600-24,450 yuan/mt; LME aluminum is expected to trade in the range of $3,180-3,330/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and developments in new project commissioning plans.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Mild Pullback in Inflation Eases Macro Anxiety, Production Resumptions Accelerate and Market Sentiment Turns]