SMM News, March 27: This week, quoted prices for scrap battery recycling diverged, at 9,250-9,450 yuan/mt. High-priced cargo collection squeezed traders' profits, while low-priced recycling saw limited volume growth; coupled with sluggish downstream consumption, relatively scarce retired resources, and end-users' reluctance to sell, this week's recycling volume was about half the normal level on a YoY basis. After Qingming Festival, more smelters were expected to resume production, supporting raw material demand, and attention should remain on lead prices as well as smelters' production, sales, and maintenance pace. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

It was learned that as of March 26, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 16,600 mt, down 6,800 mt WoW. This week, lead prices remained in the doldrums. Some large downstream enterprises purchased as needed, while suppliers were also actively making shipments. During the week, spot order quotations in major producing areas were at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory, and in-factory inventory at smelters continued to decline. However, it is worth noting that more secondary lead smelters in north China resumed or increased production, and with imported lead flowing in, supply in the spot market was relatively ample, so the decline in inventory at primary lead smelters may slow down later.

SMM News, March 27: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,390 yuan/mt during the day. Boosted by broad-based gains across nonferrous metals, the price continued to fluctuate upward, hitting a high of 16,570 yuan/mt before pulling back somewhat. It then consolidated narrowly in the 16,520-16,555 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.58%. On the supply side, deliverable primary lead inventory for primary lead fell MoM, and reduced circulating cargo supported premiums in quotations; secondary lead smelters mostly held strong wait-and-see sentiment, with few spot quotes, while limited cargo was quoted at slight premiums. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment was mixed, with both wait-and-see sentiment and purchasing as needed, and transactions were average. As the resumption of production at secondary lead smelters accelerates, expectations for increased spot secondary lead supply are strong, but downstream purchases for rigid demand remain limited, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

SMM News, March 27: This week, the tax-inclusive ex-factory price of secondary lead was at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, with slight premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt in some areas. Market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, downstream purchasing was weak, and smelters offered few quotations while generally holding prices firm and being reluctant to sell, resulting in sluggish trading. As of March 27, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -229 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -429 yuan/mt (excluding revenue from high-value by-products such as tin and antimony). The rigid inversion caused by high raw material costs and low lead prices was the main reason for the industry's continued losses. After the Qingming Festival next week, more smelters are expected to resume production, and expectations for increased spot supply of secondary lead are strong. However, downstream purchases for rigid demand are limited, making it difficult for spot prices to rise significantly, and smelters' profit margins will remain constrained. At present, supplies of primary lead and imported lead are ample, and spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to maintain sideways movement, with insufficient momentum for substantial premiums. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 27: This week, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,360 yuan/mt. Dominated by bears in early trading, prices fluctuated downward to a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Thereafter, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and the futures entered a narrow consolidation. Mid-week, supported by smelters holding spot prices firm, cost support from scrap batteries for secondary lead, and broad strength across the non-ferrous metals complex, lead prices fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,590 yuan/mt. In the latter part of mid-week, bullish momentum gradually weakened, and coupled with sluggish spot trades and weak downstream consumption, the price center of lead slowly moved lower, pulling back to around 16,410-16,440 yuan/mt. Toward the end of the week, macro sentiment eased, lead prices rebounded slightly, and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, up 265 yuan WoW, or 1.63%. This week, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. Dominated by bearish sentiment in early trading, it fluctuated downward to a low of $1,873.5/mt. Subsequently, buying interest gradually entered the market to support a price rebound, and after the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, the futures entered a narrow consolidation. Mid-week, driven by broad strength across the non-ferrous sector, lead prices fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. In the latter part of mid-week, bullish momentum gradually weakened, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Toward the end of the week, market sentiment eased, and lead prices rebounded slightly in consolidation, finally closing at $1,906/mt, up $17 from the start of the week, or 0.89%. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices