[SMM Silver Express] This week, the SMM silver ingot Hong Kong spot premium (vs. LBMA) closed at a discount of $0.35-0.2/oz, as Hong Kong entered its seasonal demand lull, with overall inventories building and limited buying interest.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver N-shaped consolidation ended flat this week amid repeated tug-of-war between geopolitical and interest rate hike expectations] Silver prices showed an N-shaped trend this week. At the start of the week, ceasefire expectations pushed prices up. Subsequently, the hawkish US Fed held rates steady, combined with repeated Middle East tensions, and silver prices consolidated to close at 14,286 yuan/kg. Spot silver supply and demand were both weak, and transactions remained at parity. On the inventory front, total social inventory accumulated to 3,658 mt, while ETF open interest edged down. Short-term, it is expected to move sideways with a downward bias.

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

July 27, 2026 The potential bottoming process in the gold market around the US$4,000 level remains highly volatile. After breaking above the downtrend line that had capped prices since the end of May, gold quickly rallied to US$4,165 before giving back almost all of those gains yesterday as tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and rising oil prices escalated once again. Price action around the psychologically important US$4,000 level therefore remains fragile and extremely volatile. One day, gold gains US$100; the next, it gives back US$100. Nevertheless, the prospects for a successful bottoming process, followed by a trend reversal and a broader recovery—or even a summer rally—remain intact. Gold Reflects the Reshaping of Global Markets Financial markets continue to be driven by an unusually dense combination of geopolitical uncertainty and structural changes in the global monetary system—and nowhere is this more evident than in the gold market. Following its record high of approximately US$5,600 per ounce in January, gold corrected sharply to just below US$4,000, pressured by profit-taking, the Iran war, rising interest rate expectations, and a modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar. During the second quarter alone, gold declined by around 14%, while silver lost approximately 22%. However, interpreting this correction as the end of gold's long-term bull market would confuse a cyclical pullback with a structural change in the market. The underlying fundamentals continue to support the view that January's record high did not mark the end of the secular bull market. Central Banks Remain the Primary Driver The underlying pillar of the gold bull market continues to be central bank demand. Over the past four years, central banks around the world have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually—roughly double the pace seen during the previous decade. According to the latest survey by the World Gold Council, 45% of reserve managers expect to increase their gold holdings over the next twelve months. This trend is not simply a short-term hedge against market volatility, but rather reflects a long-term strategy of diversifying away from the U.S. dollar as the sole anchor of the global monetary system. De-Dollarization Continues to Gain Momentum The broader geopolitical landscape reinforces the ongoing trend toward de-dollarization. While the United States continues its aggressive—but strategically unfocused and, under international law, illegal—military campaign and air war against Iran using the weapons of the 20th century, Tehran has responded with an asymmetric strategy. One U.S. military installation after another across the Middle East is being targeted with remarkable precision using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. Before long, the United States may find itself running short not only of precision-guided munitions and air defense systems—including air-to-air, surface-to-air, and missile defense interceptors—but also of viable operating bases. Without functioning runways and adequate fuel supplies, the paradigm shift in modern warfare unfolding over the Persian Gulf may become impossible to ignore, even for the West. The precision of Iran's attacks is, of course, being significantly supported by China and Russia, as neither country is prepared to allow Iran to collapse. Against this backdrop, one of the most remarkable developments in recent weeks has received relatively little attention. Beginning July 24, China's largest banks—including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)—will suspend retail paper gold trading through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Officially, the move is intended as a risk-management measure following a period of elevated volatility during which retail investors suffered significant losses on leveraged products. Speculative paper-gold trading is being curtailed, while physical gold ownership, gold savings plans, gold ETFs, and the reserve strategy of the People's Bank of China remain unaffected. Regardless of the official justification, the move can also be interpreted as another step away from a financial system in which Western paper markets such as COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) facilitate price discovery through extensive leverage, allowing multiple paper claims to exist for every physical ounce of gold. By encouraging Chinese investors to shift toward physical ownership, China is gradually changing the balance of power between the paper and physical gold markets. The development recalls historical precedents such as the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968, although this time the transition is more likely to be gradual, orderly, and largely unnoticed. Geopolitics Meets Stagflation This monetary realignment is unfolding against a geopolitical backdrop that has become increasingly concerning even for seasoned market observers. According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the conflict in the Middle East is already weighing measurably on global economic growth, which is projected to reach only around 3.1% in 2026. At the same time, warnings from former U.S. military officials regarding Iran's asymmetric strategy against U.S. and Israeli air forces operating in the Gulf underscore how fragile the regional security architecture has become. For gold, traditionally regarded as a crisis hedge and store of value, this environment represents a structural tailwind—even if higher interest rates and persistent demand for U.S. dollar liquidity have weighed on prices in the short term. Meanwhile, the sharp rise in oil prices over the past three weeks has brought the stagflation scenario that we have repeatedly outlined back into focus. Stagflation—the toxic combination of weak economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment—creates a particularly difficult environment for investors, as conventional monetary policy tools often become ineffective or even counterproductive. During such periods, financial assets and fixed-income investments tend to lose purchasing power in real terms, while tangible assets such as commodities, defensive high-quality equities, and particularly gold have historically served as reliable stores of value. Gold as a Top Performer During Stagflation Every economic regime favors different asset classes. © VanEck Gold tends to perform particularly well during periods of stagflation because its value does not depend on the creditworthiness of an issuer and it cannot be eroded by negative real interest rates. When inflation remains persistently high, economic growth weakens, and confidence in fiat currencies, government bonds, and policymakers continues to deteriorate, gold regains its traditional role as a scarce, liquid, and globally recognized store of value. The experience of the 1970s illustrates this dynamic particularly well. During that decade's stagflationary environment, gold not only served as an effective hedge but also became one of the very few asset classes capable of preserving purchasing power in real terms. Gold Battles Around the US$4,000 Level – Bottoming Process Remains Intact Gold in U.S. Dollars, Daily Chart as of July 24, 2026. © Gold.de Since the latest sharp decline ended at US$4,023 on June 11, gold has been attempting to establish a bottom around the psychologically important US$4,000 level. After six weeks, this process has produced a nervous back-and-forth trading pattern and one lower low at US$3,942. At the same time, however, the bears have failed to make any decisive progress over the past six weeks. The weekly chart remains clearly oversold, while the daily chart continues to display positive divergences, suggesting at least the potential for a technical rebound. On some days, buyers regain control and push gold US$100 to US$200 higher within hours. A few days later, the bears return, quickly reclaiming most of those gains on heavy trading volume. It is a highly volatile battle in an exceptionally challenging market environment, with equity markets repeatedly coming under pressure, bond yields moving higher, and rising oil prices once again dominating the news flow. A Move Above US$4,100 Could Trigger the Next Rally The gold bulls nevertheless scored an important technical victory on Tuesday when prices broke above a downtrend line that had been in place since the end of May. Although nearly all of those gains were surrendered again on Thursday, the overall market structure has improved modestly. Should gold now manage to reclaim and hold above the US$4,100 level, another key downtrend line would be eliminated. Such a breakout could open the way toward the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, currently located around US$4,181, followed by the declining 50-day moving average near US$4,231. If the current bottoming process ultimately develops into a confirmed trend reversal, gold could, under favorable conditions, advance toward the 200-day moving average, now situated around US$4,494. This average currently aligns closely with the broader downtrend that has been in place since the January peak and therefore remains the key technical reference for the medium-term outlook. Overall, our expectations remain unchanged. We continue to believe that the bottoming process is likely to succeed and still see a recovery toward US$4,200 and US$4,300, with a subsequent move toward approximately US$4,500 remaining a realistic possibility. However, we are not yet prepared to declare that the broader correction has come to an end. Conclusion: Nervous, but the Bottoming Process Remains Intact While the gold market continues to be driven in the short term by geopolitical developments, interest-rate expectations, U.S. dollar movements, and oil prices, the broader picture remains supportive for precious metals. The fact that gold has so far managed to defend the US$4,000 area despite the recent sharp swings is less a sign of weakness than evidence of a market attracting value-oriented buyers following a significant correction. As long as central banks continue to accumulate gold, geopolitical risks remain elevated, and real interest rates fail to provide a compelling alternative, the longer-term market structure remains constructive. The combination of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and increasing global uncertainty continues to support gold's role as a monetary safe haven. Stagflation is not an environment in which investors typically chase high-growth assets. Instead, it is one in which scarcity, liquidity, and capital preservation regain importance. Historically, these have been precisely the conditions under which gold has demonstrated its greatest strength—not as a perfect predictor of the next trading session, but as a strategic hedge in an increasingly fragile economic and monetary landscape. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-nervous-but-the-bottoming-process-remains-intact

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver V-Shaped Rebound This Week with 8.47% Weekly Gain; Double Bottom Pattern Emerges, Awaiting Breakout] Silver prices fell first and then rose this week, recording a weekly gain of 8.47%. The US Fed's hawkish remarks and geopolitical conflicts once weighed on silver prices, before ceasefire expectations and technical repair drove a rebound. Spot premiums held steady at parity, with thin trading. On the inventory front, total social inventory destocked by 84 mt, and ETF open interest edged up. Technically, a double bottom pattern initially emerges, with attention on a neckline breakout at $63/oz. For next week, the SGE range is seen at 13,300-15,800 yuan/kg, and LBMA at $55-65/oz.

H1 silver concentrate imports surged 35.5% YoY, while refined silver exports stayed flat. Q2 saw heavy stockpiling in Shenzhen, disrupting spot pricing. Since late June, low-price inventories have cleared and投机盘 have retreated, stabilizing quotes. However, risks from remaining low-cost stocks remain.