SMM June 8 News: Metal Markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly declined. SHFE copper fell 1.5%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both dropped 0.74%, SHFE lead edged down 0.21%, and SHFE tin slumped 5.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum contract futures fell 0.39%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.8%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract edged up 0.38%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.27%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.1%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore down 0.92%, rebar edging up, and HRC on par with 3,378 yuan/mt. Stainless steel increased by 0.44%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, while the most-traded coke contract edged down 0.02%. Overseas Market Base Metals: As of 11:46, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.34%, LME aluminum fell 0.11%, and LME lead lost 0.15%. LME zinc declined 0.18%, LME tin edged up, and LME nickel gained 0.38%. Precious Metals: As of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.78%, and COMEX silver dropped 2.23%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.55%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 8.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 4.24%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures contract rose 4.78% to 3,837 points. As of 11:46 on June 8, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,945 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 103,860 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Fully Leverage Market Mechanisms to Encourage Private Enterprise Participation in Urban Infrastructure Construction and Operation] Qin Haixiang, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, stated at a State Council policy routine briefing that localities should make good use of central fiscal funds, local government special bonds, and credit funds. They should fully leverage market mechanisms, actively attract social capital participation, and encourage private enterprises to take part in urban infrastructure construction and operation, so as to build a sustainable investment and financing system for urban construction and operation. [Ministry of Natural Resources: Adhere to the Supply Orientation of Prioritizing Existing Land, Operating Projects to Prioritize the Use of Existing Land] Xie Haixia, Director of the Territorial Spatial Planning Bureau of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated at a regular policy briefing of the State Council that innovative land use support policies will be introduced. The ministry will adhere to the supply orientation of prioritizing existing land, with operating projects prioritizing the use of existing land, while newly added land will primarily ensure the needs of municipal infrastructure. In response to strong pressure to revitalize existing funds reported by operating entities, the Ministry of Natural Resources has launched a transitional period policy. [PBOC Open Market Operations Achieve a Net Injection of 207.5 Billion Yuan for the Day] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 11 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the operation resulted in a net injection of 207.5 billion yuan for the day. On the US dollar front: As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 100.04. US President Trump stated that it would be a mistake if Fed policymakers chose to raise interest rates after US jobs data significantly beat expectations. He also insisted he does not want to influence Kevin Warsh ahead of his first Fed meeting. In an interview with NBC, Trump said, "Nowadays, whenever economic data comes in well, the market falls because people think the Fed will raise interest rates. But there’s no reason to raise rates at all." Trump's remarks further increased the economic and political pressure facing Warsh. Trump said, "Raising the benchmark rate is the wrong thing to do. Actually, we should be cutting rates." Trump stated, "I’m working with Kevin now. I have great respect for him, but my view is that when a country is doing well economically, you shouldn’t immediately punish it by raising rates." He added, "We have a debt problem and many other things to deal with, and many plans to move forward. I want to further expand defense spending." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 97%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 3%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 81.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 2.5%. Goldman Sachs economists said they no longer expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year, as the labour market was stronger than expected. The bank postponed the expected timing of the Fed's final two rate cuts from December 2026 and March 2027 to June and December 2027. However, Goldman Sachs' chief US economist Merrick pointed out that as inflation "seems unlikely to become self-sustaining," the likelihood of US Fed interest rate hikes remains relatively low. US job growth in May surpassed all expectations, demonstrating the resilience of the labour market and intensifying market bets that the central bank will raise interest rates. Goldman Sachs continues to view the likelihood of rate hikes as low, but raised the probability of a small rate hike from 10% to 20%. The bank’s baseline forecast still expects two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts next year, but lowered the probability from 40% to 30%. Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for the US unemployment rate this year to 4.4% from the previous 4.6%. On the data front: today will see the release of Switzerland's May consumer confidence index, the Eurozone's June Sentix investor confidence index, and the US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, among others. In addition, attention should be paid to: the State Council's regular policy briefing on the "15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal." On the crude oil front: as of 11:46 AM, both benchmark crudes rose, with US crude up 3.25% and Brent crude up 3.44%. The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to stoke supply disruption concerns, supporting oil prices. According to the communiqué released after OPEC's Sunday meeting, seven countries within the OPEC+ framework (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman) decided to raise their daily crude oil production ceiling by 188,000 barrels starting in July. The communiqué stated that the countries reaffirmed the importance of a cautious approach and will retain full flexibility to increase, pause, or reverse the process of voluntary production adjustments. (Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its main crude oil for Asia for the second consecutive month, though its crude premium in its largest market remains near multi-decade highs. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price of its Arab Light crude for next month’s shipments to Asia by $6 per barrel, bringing the premium over the Oman/Dubai average to $9.50 per barrel. The cut was larger than the $5 per barrel reduction expected by refiners and traders. As negotiations between the US and Iran over an extended ceasefire remain deadlocked, the global oil market continues to be disrupted by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf and empty vessels unable to enter to load new cargoes, the Middle East has significantly reduced production, shut down fields, and slowed or halted refinery operations. Additionally, the pricing documents show that Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude to Northwest Europe for July at a premium of $15.85 per barrel over ICE Brent settlement, and set the official selling price to the US at a premium of $12.60 per barrel over Argus Sour Crude. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 4 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals fell broadly across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel closed flat at $18,820/mt, LME copper rose 0.07%, while all other metals declined. SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel both fell over 1%, with SHFE aluminum down 1.14% and SHFE nickel down 1.94%. Other metals fell less than 1%. Alumina main contract edged down 0.07%, and casting aluminum main contract fell 1.07%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel led declines with a 1.89% drop. Iron ore and rebar both edged down, while hot-rolled coil rose 0.12%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 3.32% and coke rose 2.05%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.27% and COMEX silver fell 3.41%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.74% and SHFE silver fell 2.24%. As of 6:45 on June 4, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Scale Continuously Reduced to Zero; Policy Tone of "Maintaining Ample Market Liquidity" Remains Unchanged] In early June, the PBOC gradually reduced reverse repo operations. Today it was further reduced to zero. Notably, on August 7, 2024, the PBOC's 7-day reverse repo operation volume was also zero, under a similar backdrop, mainly due to financial institutions' lack of funding demand in this area. Data showed that while DR001 and DR007 declined at the beginning of the month, the 1-year commercial bank (AAA-rated) interbank certificate of deposit yield fell to 1.4275% on June 1, hitting a new low, and remained at this low level on June 2, which may have been a trigger for the PBOC's consecutive reduction of open market reverse repo scale to zero at the beginning of the month. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, stated that this was likely mainly due to the absence of sustained significant increases in government bond issuance in the short term, mild credit extension, and declining financing demand from commercial banks toward the PBOC. Based on this trend, outright reverse repos of both tenors in June may continue to shrink. Wang Qing expected that the PBOC would continue to flexibly conduct open market operations based on changes in key market rates such as DR001, DR007, and interbank certificate of deposit yields, guiding market rates to operate steadily around the policy rate through coordinated volume and price adjustments. (Xinhua Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.31% to 99.53, posting a three-day winning streak. The US Fed stated in its Beige Book economic report that the US labour market remained stable in recent weeks, but inflation continued to rise across most of the country due to the impact of the Middle East war on energy prices. Among the 12 regional Fed districts, 10 reported overall economic activity growing at a slight to mild pace. "Districts noted that energy costs related to the Middle East conflict were the primary factor driving up inflationary pressures, with spillover effects spreading to shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizers. Several districts noted consumer uncertainty and concerns about rising fuel prices impacting household spending." Rising costs had not yet dealt a significant blow to demand, but enterprises expressed concerns about deteriorating sentiment. "The business outlook for the next six months showed little change in expected growth, as persistently high uncertainty and signs of weak consumer spending weighed on market sentiment." In several districts, manufacturing hiring was the strongest, "supported by national defense-related activities and rising data center demand." Most districts continued to describe the labour market as a state of "low hiring, low firing." The report stated: "Hiring remained selective, primarily focused on critical positions or filling vacancies left by natural attrition." Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to hold its next monetary policy meeting on June 16-17, which will be the first rate decision since Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was sworn in in May. (Wallstreetcn) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voter) said officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to the US Fed's 2% target. The US labour market "remains broadly balanced," financial conditions are "on the loose side," but inflation does not appear to be pulling back toward the US Fed's 2% target. "If inflation stays above target for too long, it could become entrenched," and she noted inflation appeared to be heading toward a mid-range level around 2.5% rather than fully returning to 2%. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today will see the release of US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Switzerland May CPI MoM, and Switzerland May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, at 2:00 the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions, and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a speech. At 15:00, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference in June, and China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will participate in a fireside chat, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak at the Investment Association conference. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices rose across both markets, with WTI up 2.6% and Brent up 1.45%, both posting a three-day winning streak, as Middle East tensions escalated again and the market continued to monitor the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran. The US Energy Information Administration report showed that US crude oil inventory fell for the sixth consecutive week, while exports increased and refinery capacity neared saturation. For the week ending May 29, commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 7.974 million barrels to 434 million barrels, approximately 3% below the five-year average for the same period. Strategic petroleum reserves decreased by 8 million barrels due to continued emergency release, falling to 357.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventory ended a 15-week downtrend, increasing by 3.4 million barrels to 215 million barrels, 5% below the five-year average for the same period. Daily gasoline demand decreased by 662,000 barrels to 8.6 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts warned that US oil inventory had fallen to a one-year low, and once a sustained disruption occurs at the Strait of Hormuz, the market buffer would be extremely limited. Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmit stated: Until agreements are reached on Iran's highly enriched uranium issue, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lebanon situation, the likelihood of a credible peace deal materializing remains low, and uncertainty is the dominant theme in the current market. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM June 3 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally rose across both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel declining together. LME nickel fell 0.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.28%. SHFE tin and LME tin rose over 2%, with SHFE tin up 2.22% and LME tin up 2.6%. LME lead, LME zinc, SHFE copper, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1%, with LME lead up 1.24% and LME zinc up 1.37%. SHFE zinc rose 1.57%, SHFE copper rose 1.05%, and the remaining metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 1.23%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract rose 0.9%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, down 0.13%. The remaining metals gained less than 1%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.44% and coke rose 0.88%. Precious metals: Overnight COMEX gold rose 0.29%, and COMEX silver rose 0.25%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.17% and SHFE silver rose 0.24%. As of 6:44 AM on June 3, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization": Encouraging the establishment of rural revitalization funds through market-oriented approaches and supporting eligible enterprises in bond financing for rural revitalization] The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization." It mentioned improving the agricultural and rural investment mechanism, establishing a diversified investment structure with fiscal priority guarantees, financial sector focus, and active social participation, ensuring continuously strengthened investment in rural revitalization. Agriculture and rural areas will be prioritized in general public budget guarantees, making good use of central government budgetary investment, local government bonds, and other funding channels, strengthening full-chain supervision of rural revitalization funds, strictly investigating fraud, misappropriation, and other issues, and improving the effectiveness of fiscal policies supporting agriculture and fund efficiency. The rural financial service system will be improved, medium and long-term lending to agriculture and rural areas will be increased, rural digital inclusive finance will be developed, and rural credit system construction will be promoted. The risk protection role of agricultural insurance will be leveraged, development of local specialty agricultural product insurance will be supported, and claims settlement efficiency will be improved. Private investment will be guided to participate in rural revitalization in a lawful, standardized, and orderly manner, capital market services for agriculture-related entities will be enriched, the establishment of rural revitalization funds through market-oriented approaches will be encouraged, and eligible enterprises will be supported in bond financing for rural revitalization. [Unitree Robotics' STAR Market IPO approved] On June 1, the SSE Listing Review Committee held its 31st listing review meeting of 2026. The review results showed that Unitree Robotics Co., Ltd.'s IPO met the issuance conditions, listing conditions, and information disclosure requirements. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar rose 0.03% to 99.22. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that US job openings in April jumped to their highest level in nearly two years, with professional and business services accounting for nearly all of the gains, and layoffs declined. This further indicated that the labour market remained resilient even as businesses had to cope with rising energy costs triggered by the Iran war. The data suggested that labour demand was stabilizing this year after employment growth nearly stalled in 2025, which could further weaken the case for interest rate cuts, especially as US Fed officials were increasingly discussing the possibility of rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) According to sources, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh hired conservative policy analysts Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil as temporary advisors. The two will assist Warsh with policy analysis and special projects, serving in a temporary capacity. (Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Warsh stated in a memo sent and reviewed by Reuters: "Our top priority will be getting policy right to serve our mandate and the national interest. We will ensure we create an environment that supports our staff in doing their best work and building their careers. We will not rely on past practices when we find better alternatives. In the coming quarters, I hope we can engage together in open, clear-eyed discussions about the Fed's strategy, policy, and operations." (Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.6%, with a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 92.4%, with a 6.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 1.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today will see the release of China's May RatingDog Services PMI, US May ADP employment figures, US May S&P Global Services PMI final reading, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders month-over-month, France's May Services PMI final reading, Eurozone May Services PMI final reading, Eurozone April PPI month-over-month, Germany's May Services PMI final reading, UK May Services PMI final reading, and Australia's Q1 GDP year-over-year, among other data. In addition, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Barr will participate in a dialogue at the 2026 Community Development Bankers Association Peer Forum. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices rose across both markets, with WTI up 1.33% and Brent up 1.01%. The market was still awaiting progress in US-Iran negotiations, and combined with continued declines in global crude oil inventory and expectations of peak summer demand season, multiple factors supported oil price strength. American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory was -6.757 million barrels, compared to -2.819 million barrels the previous week. Last week, API Cushing crude oil inventory was -279,000 barrels, versus -2.875 million barrels previously. Last week, API gasoline inventory was +3.454 million barrels (previous: -3.199 million barrels), and distillate inventory was -214,000 barrels (previous: +11.03 million barrels). (Wallstreetcn APP) IEA oil head: Rising prices and a weak economic outlook led to declining transport fuel demand. If crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz do not resume, oil inventory drawdowns will continue into the summer. Inventory could reach critical levels before peak summer demand arrives. (Wallstreetcn APP) Tom Baker, Managing Director for Bahrain at global commodities trading giant Vitol, stated that the oil market was underestimating some of the risks from the Iran war. Baker said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London: "Crude supply may be able to recover, but from a refined petroleum products perspective, the system may struggle to catch up for the remainder of the year." (Wallstreetcn APP)

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: Overnight, metals generally rose across both domestic and overseas markets, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down about 0.09%. LME tin and SHFE tin both rose over 2%, with LME tin up 2.63% and SHFE tin up 2.46%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all rose over 1% (LME copper +1.97%, LME aluminum +1.59%, LME zinc +1.09%, LME nickel +1.42%, SHFE copper +1.12%, SHFE nickel +1.26%). The remaining metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract down 0.69% and the foundry aluminum front-month contract up 0.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose, with stainless steel leading the gains at +1.52%, and iron ore up 0.51%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw minor fluctuations. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 2.19% and coke rose 0.84%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.7% and COMEX silver dropped 0.96%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.28% and SHFE silver declined 0.73%. As of 6:43 AM on June 2, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial)] On June 1, the NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial). It mentioned that the development and reform commissions, energy bureaus, ecological environment departments, statistics bureaus, and data management departments of all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as State Grid Corporation of China, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Power (Group) Co., Ltd., relevant power generation enterprises, Beijing and Guangzhou Power Exchange Centers, China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, and China Electricity Council: To implement the major decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and to promote the improvement of the carbon emission statistical accounting system, we have formulated the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial), which are hereby issued to you. Please carry out relevant work accordingly. These guidelines shall be implemented on a trial basis from the date of issuance and shall be used for accounting of non-fossil energy power consumption for 2026 and subsequent years. If there are any issues or suggestions during the trial period, please provide timely feedback to the NDRC and the National Energy Administration. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng chaired a standing meeting of the municipal government on June 1. The meeting approved in principle the Shanghai Plan for Accelerating New-Type Industrialisation and Building a Modern Industrial System under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and noted the need to develop and strengthen a number of emerging pillar industries and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries. The meeting emphasized the need to adhere to innovation-driven development and forge competitive advantages in industry, accelerate breakthroughs in new technologies, R&D and application of new products, and cultivation and opening of new scenarios, support the efficient transformation and industrialisation of scientific and technological achievements, and turn more "flowers of technology" into "fruits of industry." The CPC Chengdu Municipal Committee and the Chengdu Municipal People's Government issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Building of a National Advanced Manufacturing Base. The opinions proposed forward-looking deployment of future industries, accelerating the layout of new tracks including nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, quantum technology, intelligent sensing, embodied AI, sixth-generation mobile communications, biomanufacturing, cell and gene therapy, flying cars, and frontier new materials. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.19. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that, driven by growth in new orders and production, the US May ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54, hitting a four-year high. US manufacturing has sent expansion signals for five consecutive months, indicating that manufacturing is regaining vitality amid a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, more favourable tax policy, and reduced trade policy uncertainty. Persistent cost pressure may mean US consumers will face higher prices, as the US Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.8% YoY in April. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Ozan Tarman, Vice Chairman of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, said the US Fed's next move will not be a rate hike. Tarman said the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will try to "convince his colleagues to stay put." "Everyone is excitedly talking about how he might completely change his stance and even convince Trump that a significant rate hike is possible this year — that seems a bit excessive to me." "The best approach is to wait and see, and let the political dynamics in the US, the Strait of Hormuz, and even the UK play out on their own," Tarman said. Tarman noted that a European Central Bank rate hike in June appears to be a foregone conclusion, but whether Lagarde will raise rates in September will depend on the progress of Middle East peace negotiations. (Bloomberg) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Inc., said that AI infrastructure construction will push up inflation in the early stages, which will prevent new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh from cutting interest rates as quickly as he had previously hinted. "We may have to wait a while longer, because in the early stages, the AI boom will certainly push up inflation," he said. From the perspective of semiconductor prices, energy prices, and labour costs, the risk of price pressure is "very clear." (Bloomberg TV) Macro: Today, the US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, Eurozone May CPI annual rate preliminary reading, and Eurozone May CPI monthly rate preliminary reading will be released. In addition, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend a House of Lords hearing. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 5.85% and Brent up 4.53%, driven by the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and blockade risks. Earlier, Iranian media reported that Iran would suspend communication with the US through intermediaries and planned to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. This morning, US President Trump said he expected to reach an agreement with Iran "within the next week," extending the current ceasefire arrangement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the negotiations were progressing well and expressed optimism about reaching a deal. (CCTV) (Wallstreetcn APP) According to US sources, the Trump administration continued to release large volumes from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease the energy supply crisis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 8 million barrels of crude oil last week, following declines of 9.1 million barrels and a record 9.9 million barrels in the two preceding weeks. As of now, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory has fallen to 357.1 million barrels, the lowest level since January 2024. (Wallstreetcn) Three sources said OPEC+ producers will most likely agree at their meeting on Sunday to further increase crude oil production quotas in July. However, the Iran war has so far caused some countries to fall short of their previous production increase targets. A further increase in production quotas would indicate that the organisation is gradually resuming normal operations, despite disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected withdrawal of the UAE in May. According to sources, OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in July, the same as the increase agreed for June, which had been reduced from 206,000 barrels per day after taking into account the UAE's withdrawal. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 1 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw base metals collectively decline in both domestic and overseas markets. LME copper and LME tin both led the decline with a 0.98% drop. SHFE zinc fell 0.86%, while declines in other metals were relatively small. The alumina front-month contract closed flat at 2,888 yuan/mt, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.26%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals session showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.74%, and iron ore dropped 0.26%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose around 0.2%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.7% and coke rose 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals session: COMEX gold rose 0.83%, up 1.03% on the week but down 1.29% on the month, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. COMEX silver fell 0.43% overnight last Friday, down 0.81% on the week but up 2.1% on the month. In China, SHFE gold rose 1.61%, down 0.23% on the week and down 1.61% on the month, also recording a third consecutive monthly decline alongside the overseas market. SHFE silver rose 0.64% overnight last Friday, down 1.23% on the week but up 3.08% on the month. As of 8:25 AM on May 30, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: From January to April, total operating revenue of national state-owned and state-holding enterprises fell 0.5% YoY, while total profits rose 1.9% YoY. Specifically, total operating revenue was 26.27 trillion yuan, and total profits were 1.37 trillion yuan. Taxes payable rose 3.9% YoY to 2.12 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.5%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY. (Xinhua News Agency) On May 29, it was reported that in Q1, China's integrated circuit exports reached $72.47 billion, up 77.5% YoY, of which memory product exports reached $45.99 billion, up 174.2% YoY. The surge in memory product exports also transmitted to supply chain service segments. The head of a logistics company said that since the beginning of this year, the company's orders related to memory exports had doubled, with large orders exceeding 100 million yuan per transaction increasing significantly. Industry insiders noted that the explosive growth in memory product exports was driven by both cyclical factors of tight global supply and demand, as well as structural industrial changes including industry chain upgrades and market share gains in China's domestic memory sector. The Deputy Secretary General of the Shenzhen Electronics Chamber of Commerce said that compared with March last year, memory prices had risen nearly tenfold, with some even seeing more than tenfold increases. The rise was mainly due to the significant price increases, which drove up the total (export) value. Domestic brand prices had a significant price spread compared with ex-China brands, making them very competitive. (CCTV Finance) [MIIT and Six Other Departments: Encouraging Equipment Manufacturing in Aerospace, Shipbuilding, Automotive, Robotics and Other Sectors] On May 29, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the General Office of the Central Publicity Department, the General Office of MIIT, the General Office of the Ministry of Education, the General Office of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the General Office of the National Cultural Heritage Administration, and the General Office of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions jointly issued a notice on promoting industrial culture, protecting industrial heritage, and developing industrial tourism. The notice mentioned enriching the supply of industrial tourism products. It encouraged the active development of industrial heritage tourism, promoting the revitalization and utilization of industrial sites through creative design, new business format integration, and facade renovation, and developing new scenarios, formats, and models for industrial tourism. It vigorously promoted "factory tours," encouraging enterprises in equipment manufacturing sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, automotive, and robotics, consumer goods industries such as textiles and apparel, arts and crafts, and food processing, as well as e-commerce logistics, to innovatively launch programs including production process observation, simulated operations, hands-on experiences, and product customization, while ensuring production safety and confidentiality requirements, to create themed sightseeing factories. It called for the orderly expansion of smart industrial tourism, supporting the use of BeiDou, artificial intelligence, ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality, autonomous driving, and other digital technologies and equipment to create immersive and intelligent industrial tourism experiences. It supported industrial tourism venues in developing themed commerce, immersive experiences, specialty markets, and other formats to create "industrial tourism+" consumption scenarios. It encouraged localities to launch a batch of high-quality industrial tourism routes and brands with regional and industry characteristics. It encouraged industrial enterprises to strengthen product promotion, expand product sales, and build stronger enterprise brands through industrial tourism. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to the daily price limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts to 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 19%; it also adjusted trading limits for related crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 98.93, down 0.39% on the week but up 0.85% on the month. Optimistic expectations about the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran weakened safe-haven demand. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% YoY, the highest level since May 2023, in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.5%. The US April core PCE price index rose 3.3% YoY, hitting a new high since November 2023, also in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.2%. Additionally, separate data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, below the preliminary data. The initial estimate released last month showed growth of 2%. The data indicated that US consumers became more cautious amid cost-of-living pressures and uneven labor market performance. The Middle East conflict pushed up fuel and other raw material prices, with the impact transmitting through the broader economy and sending consumer confidence to record lows. Meanwhile, this inflation data is likely to further reinforce warnings from some US Fed officials that the US Fed would need to consider raising interest rates if price pressures fail to ease. Kevin Warsh, who was just sworn in as Fed Chairman on May 22, may need to convince other officials that inflation expectations can be controlled without rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that it was too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, but he believed the US Fed should keep all policy options on the table. He said it was too early to conclude that an immediate rate hike was needed. He noted the need to continue monitoring economic data and developments in the Middle East conflict before considering whether policy adjustments were necessary. Kashkari pointed out that under both the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios, inflation could remain significantly elevated for an extended period. He was closely monitoring this risk, as well as the possibility that inflation expectations could become unanchored. (Wallstreetcn) US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated that it was too early to judge the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation, and policymakers needed to look through temporary price shocks. She supported officials retaining language in their statement after last month's policy meeting that hinted at the possibility of further interest rate cuts. She said that as she thought about the future path of monetary policy, she wanted a clearer understanding of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the persistence of those effects. As long as credibility in the commitment to achieving the inflation target was maintained, it was appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation primarily driven by rising energy prices. She expected the "one-off" impact of tariffs implemented by US President Trump to fade. (Wallstreetcn) Macro front: This week, China is set to release data including China's May RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and China's May RatingDog Services PMI. The US is set to release data including the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, US April construction spending MoM, US April JOLTs job openings, US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders MoM, US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May unemployment rate, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US May average hourly earnings YoY, and US May average hourly earnings MoM. The UK is set to release data including UK May Nationwide house price index MoM, UK May Manufacturing PMI final, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, UK May Services PMI final, and UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM. The Eurozone is set to release data including Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, Eurozone May CPI YoY preliminary, Eurozone May CPI MoM preliminary, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI MoM, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, and Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final. Switzerland is set to release data including Swiss April real retail sales YoY, Swiss April trade balance, Swiss May CPI MoM, and Swiss May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. France is set to release data including France May Manufacturing PMI final, France May Services PMI final, France April industrial output MoM, and France April trade balance. Germany is set to release data including Germany May Manufacturing PMI final and Germany May Services PMI final. In addition, Australia Q1 GDP YoY and Canada May employment figures will also be released. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.28% and Brent down 0.87%. On a weekly basis, oil prices suffered heavy losses, with WTI down 9.15% and Brent down 8.3%, both recording a second consecutive weekly decline and the largest weekly drop since April. WTI fell 16.47% on the month and Brent fell 16.77% on the month, with WTI posting its largest monthly decline since November 2021 and Brent its largest monthly decline since March 2020. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on the 29th that the US and Iran had reached agreement on secondary issues beyond Iran's nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz passage, sending crude oil prices lower. The oil market in May underwent a clear three-phase evolution: Early month (May 1-6): Oil prices pulled back slightly from near four-year highs, but Brent briefly surged to around $114 after OPEC+ announced a modest production increase and shipping attacks, before plunging to the $101-106 range following signals of US-Iran de-escalation. Mid-month (May 7-20): Oil prices oscillated as ceasefire breakdowns alternated with mediation progress, with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz maintaining an elevated risk premium. Month-end (May 21-29): Driven by reports of a US-Iran agreement in principle to reopen the strait, Brent briefly fell to the $93-100 low range, WTI touched $88-92, and Brent closed around $92. (Wallstreetcn) Nevertheless, analysts emphasized that until the conflict truly ends and the strait resumes normal passage, global crude oil inventories will continue to be depleted by approximately 10 to 14 million barrels per day, and physical market fundamentals remain tight. The decline in oil prices driven by ceasefire expectations reflected more the pricing of future supply recovery rather than a fundamental change in the current supply-demand pattern. (Wallstreetcn) Recent reports revealed that calculations by Goldman Sachs showed global crude oil inventories could fall below the equivalent of 100 days of global demand as early as the end of May. Goldman Sachs estimated that as of the end of April, global crude oil inventories were equivalent to approximately 101 days of global demand, and were expected to decline to 98 days by the end of May. Of this, "visible inventories" observable through satellites and other means were estimated at only 73 days of demand. Reports indicated that currently only a few vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, resulting in a daily global crude oil supply loss exceeding 10 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn)

Nickel prices overall moved sideways this week with a slight pullback. Early in the week, driven by rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and repeated geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract briefly fell below 141,000 yuan/mt. However, from mid-week onward, strong supply-side support logic helped nickel prices stabilize above 142,000 yuan/mt, after which they moved sideways, with a weekly decline of 0.26%. Spot market side, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 143,700 yuan/mt this week, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums dropped significantly this week, with the range falling to 600-1,000 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums were affected by contract rollover, with the range falling to -700-100 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were mediocre this week, with downstream buyers only making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining mediocre. On the macro front, Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Fed Chairman, while facing two major challenges — surging US Treasury yields and rising US inflation expectations. Market expectations for interest rate cuts continued to be pushed back, and expectations for interest rate hikes further strengthened. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% YoY, hitting a three-year high, with the core index accelerating to 3.3% YoY. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, continuing to weigh on non-ferrous metal prices. Geopolitical tensions remained stagnant this week. Iranian officials stated that the Iran-US "memorandum of understanding" text had not been finalized and Iran had not agreed to any memorandum of understanding. Should tensions ease, expectations for a recovery in sulfur supply would exert short-term pressure on nickel prices; on the other hand, a continued stalemate would mean sulfur cost support remains intact, providing a floor for nickel prices. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 117,000 mt, an inventory buildup of approximately 4,200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are in a prolonged tug-of-war between bulls and bears. High inventory continues to suppress nickel price elasticity, serving as the core resistance constraining price upside. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 138,000-148,000 yuan/mt next week.