[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, approaching delivery, the C-month price spread holds between 70 yuan/mt and -20 yuan/mt, with suppliers, bullish on near-term premiums, holding back from selling. In addition, SMM understands that some enterprises have exported spot cargoes to bonded warehouses, tightening available supply. Moreover, the import window remains closed, limiting the inflow of ex-China cargoes. Overall, supported by consumption demand and delivery-related dynamics, the discount of Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 contract is expected to continue narrowing tomorrow, with some brands likely to remain at parity or a slight premium.

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, last Friday (June 5) the US May non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, and the March and April non-farm payrolls figures were revised upward. Market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike this year intensified, pushing the US dollar index back above the 100 mark and exerting notable pressure on copper prices. According to SMM, after the copper price decline, end-user dip-buying sentiment recovered, with active pricing and orders significantly increasing compared with last Friday, boosting overall market trading activity. Meanwhile, suppliers’ willingness to sell at low prices weakened, and today’s spot discount for SHFE copper narrowed markedly from earlier levels. From the perspective of delivery dynamics, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. As delivery approaches, suppliers are more inclined to ship to delivery warehouses, which is likely to further tighten the availability of low-priced cargo and provide support for the spot discount. The spot discount is expected to continue narrowing before delivery.

According to the latest SMM steel shipping data, China's total steel export volume from 32 ports in May was 11.46 million mt, down 3.43% MoM. Among main ports, port departures for steel in May were Zhanjiang (450,900 mt, up 66.63% MoM), Fangchenggang (171,100 mt, up 40.13% MoM), Zhangjiagang (670,700 mt, up 45.52% MoM), Luojing Port (1.2224 million mt, up 30.15% MoM), Tianjin Xingang Port (2.6011 million mt, down 14.76% MoM), and Caofeidian (337,400 mt, down 33.23% MoM). Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] From a supply-demand perspective, consumption showed improvement compared to earlier. According to SMM, some suppliers reported an increase in downstream enterprise orders. Approaching delivery, the spread between the nearby SHFE copper contracts narrowed slightly. Buoyed by delivery-related support, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm rose somewhat, and Shanghai spot copper premiums edged up. In addition, import losses continued to widen, weakening the impetus for overseas cargo inflows, and supply-side increments were limited. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices shifted lower during the session, with end-use consumption picking up slightly. According to SMM, downstream buyers mostly placed orders and completed transactions in the range of 105,000-105,500 yuan/mt, with trading conditions improving compared to yesterday. In terms of market structure, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed slightly to 100-50 yuan/mt. Driven by delivery logic, suppliers strengthened their willingness to hold prices firm, pushing spot discounts to narrow. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory of copper cathode in Shanghai was recorded at 169,800 mt, down 6,900 mt from June 1, showing a slight destocking trend, mainly due to moderate consumption coupled with reduced arrivals. Overall, under the combined effects of demand stimulated by copper price pullbacks, price spread convergence between futures contracts supporting firm pricing, and destocking, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to see discounts narrow further tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper price center shifted upward during the day, and downstream enterprise consumption weakened. According to SMM, Shanghai spot copper remained around 106,500 yuan/mt. End-user cargo pick-up slowed down, and some copper semis processing enterprises in east China planned to shut down furnaces and cut production due to finished product inventories buildup, indicating that high prices further intensified the suppression of demand. In addition, entering the delivery month, although copper prices remained at a relatively high level, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts stayed at 160-100 yuan/mt, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses increased somewhat. They held prices firm and held back from selling, providing some support for spot discounts. As a result, both buying and selling sentiment pulled back during the day, and actual transactions were sluggish. Overall, supported by the widening price spread between futures contracts that encouraged suppliers to hold prices firm, combined with high copper prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with limited room for the discount to widen further.