In the first week after the Labour Day holiday, nickel prices saw an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts, displaying an overall pattern of rising first then falling. At the start of the week, LME fluctuated at highs during the holiday period and tight supply sentiment continued. After the holiday ended, SHFE nickel opened higher with a gap. Mid-week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged over 3.5% in a single day, hitting an intraday high of 155,360 yuan/mt — a new yearly high — while LME nickel briefly approached $20,000/mt. However, in the latter part of the week, signals of resumed US-Iran negotiations emerged, marginally easing market concerns over tight sulfur supply. Combined with concentrated profit-taking at highs, nickel prices pulled back sharply, falling a cumulative 3.4%+ over two days. Spot market side, the weekly average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 149,383 yuan/mt, down 4,050 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums further declined to 1,100 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained at significant discounts. After the sharp decline in futures, spot trading activity improved compared to pre-holiday levels. On the macro front, the signal of resumed US-Iran negotiations — with both sides potentially negotiating on conflict resolution and opening the Strait of Hormuz — eased sulfur supply concerns accordingly, and nickel prices pulled back notably. The hawkish stance of Fed Chairman nominee Warsh at his confirmation hearing last week continued to weigh on market expectations this week. The US Fed's April meeting kept interest rates unchanged, with the current benchmark rate range maintained at 3.5%–3.75%. Persistently high oil prices continued to push the inflation center upward, with core PCE data still above the Fed's 2% target. Market-implied probability of a June interest rate cut has fallen to extremely low levels. Expectations for one rate cut for the full year remain the mainstream view but with significant uncertainty. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, a buildup of about 600 mt WoW. Looking ahead, geopolitical conflict dynamics persist. If US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, market expectations of sulfur supply disruptions will ease, and the nickel price center may shift lower. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000–150,000 yuan/mt, with key support below from the rigid cost floor established by Indonesia's new HPM policy.

Nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with the market narrative shifting from last week's "fluctuating at highs after policy materialization" to "full fermentation of substantive supply-side shocks." Indonesia's Weda Bay nickel mine announced a May production halt for maintenance due to exhausted RKAB quotas, Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Huafei Nickel & Cobalt announced partial production line shutdowns from May 1 due to sulfur shortages, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East deepened the sulfur supply crisis. The three supply-side shocks combined to push nickel price centers sharply higher. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt mark this week, while LME nickel briefly surpassed $19,500/mt intraday. Spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 150,000 yuan/mt this week, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. Spot premiums remained low as futures surged rapidly, with Jinchuan nickel premiums declining to 1,300 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel maintained significant discounts, further highlighting the structural feature of "strong futures, weak spot" in supply-demand fundamentals. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations reached a complete impasse this week, with expectations of prolonged geopolitical risks rising. The two sides diverged sharply on the Strait of Hormuz issue: Trump claimed Iran was "on the verge of collapse and requesting the strait be opened," demanding Iran hand over all enriched uranium; Iran emphasized its "absolute control" over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at last week's hearing, and the market continued to digest this stance this week — CME Fed Watch showed a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and only about 3% probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June, with monetary easing expectations virtually disappearing. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 3,200 mt WoW. Looking ahead, although persistently high domestic inventory continued to pressure prices, Indonesia's Q2 triple shock of "ore tightening + sulfur supply disruption + MHP production cuts" is accelerating from expectations toward reality. After the Labour Day holiday, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-155,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel prices trended higher in a volatile manner this week, with supply-side news serving as the core driver of price movements. At the beginning of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened low near 140,010 yuan/mt. Mid-week, news that Indonesia's Weda Bay planned to halt production in May, combined with cost-side factors such as the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM tax policy and surging sulfur prices, pushed nickel prices higher for three consecutive days. On Friday, prices briefly broke through 146,000 yuan/mt, with a weekly gain of 0.99%. LME nickel strengthened in tandem, reaching a high of $18,850/mt, with a weekly gain of 4.11%. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 142,770 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premium declined to 1,900 yuan/mt, and mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained at a discount. Rising futures prices this week suppressed downstream pricing willingness, and overall trading was mediocre. Macro and market news, SHFE added two Indonesian refined nickel delivery brands "Yongheng" and "Dingxing" this week, further expanding the channel for low-cost Indonesian electrodeposited nickel to register for delivery in the Chinese market, which will exert sustained restocking pressure on SHFE warrants and domestic refined nickel social inventory. Starting from the evening of April 21, overseas investors were officially permitted to participate in SHFE nickel futures and options trading, further enhancing the openness of the nickel product. On the macro front, Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire deadline last week, but substantial progress in US-Iran negotiations was severely lacking this week. Iran stated it had "no plan to engage in negotiations in the near term," and both sides continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, with tensions re-escalating. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at a confirmation hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee this week, stating he would focus on "underlying inflation." Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 97,000 mt, an inventory buildup of about 3,300 mt WoW. Looking ahead, Indonesia's quota tightening policy continued to strengthen, the sulfur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices are expected to hold up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt next week.

Nickel market remained in the doldrums this week. On the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, both SHFE and LME nickel opened low and trended lower, with a lack of market drivers. Combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade triggering broad pressure on risk assets, nickel prices were clearly in the doldrums. However, mid-week, the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire sharply boosted risk appetite, the US dollar index came under significant pressure, and nickel prices rebounded notably alongside improved sentiment across the non-ferrous sector in and outside China. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 135,363 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums continued to weaken, with the weekly average at 3,500 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Trading of imported cargoes and domestic electrodeposited nickel was overall sluggish, spot premiums declined in tandem, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited willingness to restock. On the macro front, on April 7, US President Trump announced that if Iran agreed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, the US would agree to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council promptly accepted the ceasefire proposal. However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remained in doubt, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again on April 8. Geopolitical risks were not fully resolved, and market sentiment may continue to swing wildly as the situation fluctuates. US March non-farm payrolls data rebounded beyond expectations, hitting a high of over a year. After the data release, market bets on US Fed interest rate cuts cooled notably. The minutes of the US Fed's March FOMC meeting showed that the vast majority of officials believed progress on inflation pullback could be slower than expected, and the rate cut path had already narrowed significantly before the ceasefire. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are caught between geopolitical risk fluctuations and weak fundamentals. In the short term, the core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

This week, the nickel market generally showed a pattern of "falling first and then rebounding, moving sideways within a range," with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was around 133,000-138,000 yuan/mt, down 1.82% on a weekly basis, while the LME nickel 3M contract also fluctuated lower this week, down 0.67%. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 136,600 yuan/mt this week, down 3,300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums weakened sharply, falling all the way from 5,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 3,650 yuan/mt on Friday, with the weekly average at about 3,900 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high inventory in China, imported cargoes still faced circulation pressure, suppliers showed stronger willingness to sell, and premiums declined in tandem. Overall spot transactions were sluggish. With the Qingming Festival approaching and prices remaining high, downstream buyers showed insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, with rigid demand dominating. On the macro front, at the end of Q1 2026, US economic data showed stronger-than-expected resilience, undermining market confidence in a US Fed interest rate cut before June. This supported a stronger US dollar in the short term and put valuation pressure on commodities such as nickel. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in at 50.5%, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, indicating signs of a manufacturing recovery. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have caused oil price fluctuations, driving swings in overall risk appetite across the commodities market, and nickel prices showed a relatively strong linkage to financial factors. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,800 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong support from the cost floor, weak actual demand, and policy-driven sentiment disruptions," making rangebound fluctuations more likely. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt.

This week, nickel prices first fell and then rose, moving sideways amid a tug-of-war between macro fluctuations and supply-side policy. Early in the week, affected by a stronger US dollar and risk-off sentiment across global commodities, LME nickel once fell below the key $17,000 level. It then rebounded on easing tensions in the Middle East and policy expectations that Indonesia planned to impose a nickel export tax. As of Friday's close, the weekly price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 3%, while the LME nickel 3M contract gained 2.4% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 138,030 yuan/mt this week, up 1,100 yuan/mt WoW. The average Jinchuan nickel premium was 5,900 yuan/mt this week, down 1,600 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -600-400 yuan/mt. Nickel plate premiums fell notably this week, and sluggish demand led to poor trading in the spot market. On the macro front, geopolitical risks continued to weigh on market risk appetite this week. According to US media reports, the US Department of Defense was formulating a "decisive lethal strike" military plan against Iran, which could include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrikes. Although news of a ceasefire window had emerged earlier, risk-off sentiment did not truly fade. China's macro policy maintained a positive tone, and the pro-growth signals released at the Boao Forum boosted market confidence. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, with destocking of 500 mt WoW. China's social inventory was about 90,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war between "strong cost support" and "weak actual demand" in the short term. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt. Cost-floor support provided by Indonesian policy remains solid, but macro pressure and weak demand will limit upside room.