Nickel prices continued to consolidate at lows this week. Early week, boosted by weaker-than-expected US June non-farm payrolls data and a weaker US dollar, SHFE nickel once surged to around 128,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, the US dollar index rebounded, weighing on nickel prices and causing a pullback. Late week, driven by a marginal recovery in macro sentiment, SHFE and LME nickel prices rebounded in tandem. Over the whole week, the nickel price center edged up slightly WoW but failed to achieve an effective breakout. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 127,770 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan nickel premium remained stable at 2,300 yuan/mt this week, while discounts for mainstream electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot trading was relatively active as prices continued to consolidate at low levels, with strong downstream sentiment for point-price purchases. On the macro front, US June non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations, which cooled market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and weakened the US dollar. Subsequently, the market entered a wait-and-see period ahead of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, with limited willingness for capital participation, preventing nickel prices from achieving an effective breakout. Geopolitically, US-Iran tensions escalated again this week. US officials stated that Iran recently fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Treasury revoked exemptions for Iranian oil sales, and the US military launched strong strikes against Iran. Navigation risks in Hormuz increased again, and Iran was reported to have shipped out over 10 million barrels of crude oil within 24 hours. Although Trump stated he did not believe war would break out again, the conflict continued to spill over. On the inventory front, Shanghai bonded zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, destocking 1,000 mt WoW. Social inventory in China was about 126,000 mt, destocking roughly 4,000 mt WoW. Given the sustained drop in nickel prices recently, a sentiment-driven repair rebound is expected next week. However, market expectations for quota replenishment in H2 continue to brew, limiting upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt next week.

Nickel prices consolidated at lows and hit bottom this week. Early in the week, expectations for further US Fed interest rate hikes and a stronger US dollar weighed on the most-traded SHFE nickel contract, keeping it under pressure around 124,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, US June non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in macro sentiment. Rate hike expectations cooled abruptly, the US dollar index pulled back quickly, and nickel prices rebounded slightly, leaving the weekly decline at 1.2%. The LME nickel 3M contract also traded under pressure this week, breaching the $17,000 level and falling nearly 2% WoW. In the spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 127,080 yuan/mt this week, down 4,500 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums trended higher this week, climbing to around 2,200 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts held steady in the 400-400 yuan/mt range. On spot transactions, the sustained drop in nickel prices encouraged bargain-hunting by end-users, but after some downstream players had already stockpiled during the earlier price decline, overall weekly trading activity was moderate. On the macro front, US Labor Department data on July 3 showed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, roughly half the 113,000 expected and well below the downwardly revised 129,000 for May. The sharper-than-expected cooling in non-farm payrolls data prompted a more cautious assessment of the employment outlook and led investors to re-evaluate the Fed’s monetary policy path. Rate hike expectations cooled markedly, the US dollar index fell to a two-week low, and the US Treasury yield curve steepened steadily. Inventory side, bonded zone inventory in Shanghai stood at around 2,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory stood at approximately 130,000 mt, a WoW buildup of about 1,100 mt. Nickel prices are currently caught between macro disruptions and weak industry fundamentals. In the short term, recovering macro sentiment supports a rebound, but the upside is still capped by high inventory pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt next week.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp drop triggered by macro tightening expectations and a supply-side policy reversal. At the beginning of the week, nickel prices were still trading around 136,000 yuan/mt, but were subsequently pressured by a steadily rising US dollar index and higher US Treasury yields, which weighed on base metals prices. Adding to this, market rumors that Indonesia would significantly increase its full-year RKAB nickel ore quota reversed the previous supply contraction narrative of "quota tightening." Under the dual impact of macro and policy shocks, nickel prices fell below multiple support levels, including 130,000 and 127,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday, the cumulative weekly decline was nearly 6%, marking the largest weekly drop in recent months; LME nickel dropped to $16,700/mt, with a weekly loss of about 5%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 131,600 yuan/mt, down 8,250 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained stable at 1,300-1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the -400 to -300 yuan/mt range. Affected by the steep decline in futures prices this week, downstream point-price activity was active and trading improved. On the macro front, the biggest headwind this week came from the strong hawkish signal sent by the US Fed's June FOMC meeting. On June 18, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause in interest rate cuts. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections raised the median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. This hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index and pushed US Treasury yields higher, exerting significant pressure on base metals. Domestically, China's LPR quotes on June 22 remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%, continuing expectations of pro-growth policies. On the inventory front, Shanghai bonded zone inventory this week stood at about 2,700 mt, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 129,000 mt, up 2,700 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently under triple pressure from an abrupt shift in policy expectations, resonance of macro headwinds, and persistently high inventory overhang. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt next week.

Nickel prices showed a pattern of stopping falling and stabilizing with a fluctuating rebound this week. At the start of the week, the US-Iran peace agreement became the key variable reversing market sentiment; as the geopolitical risk premium rapidly faded, market risk appetite recovered significantly. Meanwhile, the US Fed kept rates unchanged at its June FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. Driven by the macro sentiment recovery, SHFE and LME nickel prices rose from earlier lows amid fluctuations. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract rebounded from the 135,000 yuan/mt area to near 137,000 yuan/mt, and LME nickel rallied in tandem to above $17,900/mt. This week, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 136,112 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums stabilized at 1,300–1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the -500 to -400 yuan/mt range. Spot trading activity weakened from the previous week, as the futures price rebound and the completion of purchasing by most end-users left downstream parties largely on the sidelines. On the macro front, the most positive change this week came from the breakthrough in US-Iran relations. The US and Iran reached a peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to fully resume navigation in the near term, a geopolitical positive that boosted risk appetite. Some media outlets reported that the agreement would be officially signed on June 19, after which the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen. On June 18 Beijing time, the US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause in rate cuts. The Fed held its FOMC meeting on June 16-17, and the market had previously priced in a 98.5% probability of an unchanged rate. However, the hawkish signals from this meeting cannot be ignored. The new chair, Warsh, leaned hawkish, and the dot plot showed that half of officials expected at least one rate hike this year. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,700 mt this week, building up by 1,000 mt WoW. China’s social inventory stood at about 126,000 mt, with a slight destocking of roughly 86 mt WoW. Following the US-Iran agreement, expectations of sulfur supply recovery intensified, weakening the cost-support logic. With refined nickel inventories continuing to build up both in and outside China, upside resistance for nickel prices is clear. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

This week, nickel prices exhibited an accelerating decline, with macro bearish factors serving as the core driver for the pullback in prices. At the start of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract held above 144,000 yuan/mt in volatile trading. However, as US economic data continued to beat expectations, market expectations for a US Fed rate hike this year heated up, the US dollar index rebounded, and the nonferrous metals sector generally came under pressure. During the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract successively broke through several round number levels, including 142,000, 140,000, and 139,000 yuan/mt, hitting a low of approximately 137,700 yuan/mt. Its weekly cumulative decline exceeded 3%, while LME nickel simultaneously fell below the $18,500/mt mark. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 142,090 yuan/mt, down 5,250 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan nickel premium rebounded slightly to 800 yuan/mt this week, while the premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained at -600 to 300 yuan/mt. On the macro front, US economic data continued to beat expectations, and rate hike bets intensified. The US manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54, up 1.3% from April. On the geopolitical front, Trump stated he has no intention of restarting a full-scale war with Iran. Expectations for US-Iran negotiations have warmed up, and the market is betting on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease the sulfur transportation bottleneck. However, the US-Iran talks still face the risk of further twists and turns. On the inventory front, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone this week stood at approximately 1,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory was around 120,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,500 mt WoW. Currently, the nickel market is locked in a tug-of-war between macro headwinds and cost support. In the short term, it is expected to remain in the doldrums. However, with policy and cost floors in place, downside room for a further sharp decline is limited. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade mainly within the range of 137,000–145,000 yuan/mt next week.

Nickel prices overall moved sideways this week with a slight pullback. Early in the week, driven by rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and repeated geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract briefly fell below 141,000 yuan/mt. However, from mid-week onward, strong supply-side support logic helped nickel prices stabilize above 142,000 yuan/mt, after which they moved sideways, with a weekly decline of 0.26%. Spot market side, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 143,700 yuan/mt this week, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums dropped significantly this week, with the range falling to 600-1,000 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums were affected by contract rollover, with the range falling to -700-100 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were mediocre this week, with downstream buyers only making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining mediocre. On the macro front, Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Fed Chairman, while facing two major challenges — surging US Treasury yields and rising US inflation expectations. Market expectations for interest rate cuts continued to be pushed back, and expectations for interest rate hikes further strengthened. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% YoY, hitting a three-year high, with the core index accelerating to 3.3% YoY. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, continuing to weigh on non-ferrous metal prices. Geopolitical tensions remained stagnant this week. Iranian officials stated that the Iran-US "memorandum of understanding" text had not been finalized and Iran had not agreed to any memorandum of understanding. Should tensions ease, expectations for a recovery in sulfur supply would exert short-term pressure on nickel prices; on the other hand, a continued stalemate would mean sulfur cost support remains intact, providing a floor for nickel prices. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 117,000 mt, an inventory buildup of approximately 4,200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are in a prolonged tug-of-war between bulls and bears. High inventory continues to suppress nickel price elasticity, serving as the core resistance constraining price upside. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 138,000-148,000 yuan/mt next week.