This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel prices came under pressure and pulled back this week. Early in the week, rumors of tighter approvals for RKAB on the Indonesian ore side spurred the futures market to rally briefly, but it later retreated as US Fed officials repeatedly delivered hawkish remarks, the US dollar index held above 106, and global risk assets came under broad pressure. With tensions in the Middle East rising, macro risk-off sentiment strengthened, and nickel prices on SHFE and LME corrected notably. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract closed at 137,140 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.6% on the week. The LME nickel 3M contract fluctuated between $17,000-17,900/mt this week, with a weekly decline of 2%. In the spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 140,600 yuan/mt, down 2,150 yuan/mt WoW. The weekly average Jinchuan nickel premium was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 1,100 yuan/mt versus the week before Chinese New Year. Premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400-400 yuan/mt. After nickel prices fell this week, downstream restocking driven by rigid demand became more evident, and overall spot nickel plate shipments increased WoW. On the macro front, US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest rise since November 2025 and above the market expectation of 50,000, weakening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, US January PCE and core PCE inflation data rose above expectations, and the US dollar index rebounded, creating short-term pressure on base metal prices. Geopolitical tensions continued to escalate this week, with Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, posing a potential threat to the sulfur supply chain. Domestically, the Two Sessions emphasized medium and long-term benefits from national defense spending, improving expectations for alloy demand in sectors such as defense industry and shipbuilding, which supported nickel alloy consumption. Inventory: Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 85,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 8,000 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently in a stalemate, with firmer cost support but unchanged near-term pressure. Tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas and tight nickel ore supply provided strong support for nickel prices, but levels above 140,000 yuan/mt faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core expected trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel prices experienced a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise and fluctuating at highs this week. At the beginning of the week, driven by supply-side disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices in both domestic and overseas markets strengthened simultaneously, with LME nickel once climbing back above $18,000/mt. However, by mid to late week, a stronger US dollar and continued inventory buildup on the LME exerted downward pressure on prices, leading to a slight correction in nickel prices. As of Friday, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract closed at 140,980 yuan/mt, posting a weekly gain of 3.46%; LME nickel also rose over 3% for the week. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 143,450 yuan/mt, up 2,550 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel this week was 8,300 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt compared to the week before the Chinese New Year. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -600 to 300 yuan/mt, also declining. Spot trading activity was relatively mediocre in the first week after the post-Chinese New Year resumption of work; market participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude amid rising nickel prices, and with some end-users resuming operations at a slower pace, only a few enterprises made their first round of just-in-time procurement after the holiday. On the macro front, the US dollar index rose slightly by 0.2% this week, and the market remains divided over the policy path of the incoming US Fed Chair Warsh. Geopolitically, progress in US-Iran negotiations has been limited; while differences persist, the two sides are nearing consensus in some areas, with technical talks scheduled for March 2. Repeated fluctuations in the geopolitical situation continue to impact market risk appetite. Domestically, the central bank continued to precisely inject liquidity through open market operations this week to maintain stability in the quarter-end funding environment. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at approximately 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was around 77,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 2,000 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of fluctuations. On the downside, supply disruptions in Indonesia and expectations of a supply gap provide a floor, limiting significant downside room; on the upside, persistently high inventory levels and weak spot demand present clear resistance to further rises. The core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is projected at 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp sell-off triggered by a sudden reversal in macro sentiment and high inventory pressure from the fundamentals. At the start of the week, the market came under pressure amid expectations of a "hawkish" nomination for the new Fed Chairman. Panic sentiment peaked on February 2, with LME and SHFE nickel prices plunging simultaneously. LME nickel prices fell below the $17,000 mark during the week, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) hit an 11% limit-down intraday, erasing gains from January driven by Indonesian policy expectations, and ended the week down more than 9%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 139,300 yuan/mt this week, down 10,350 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands remained stable in the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Due to the sharp decline in nickel prices this week, end-users' willingness to restock at low prices increased, and market transactions improved significantly compared to last week. On the macro front, Trump nominated former governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a "hawkish" representative, as the next Fed Chairman this week. The market's widely expected "dovish" candidate did not materialize, leading to a reversal in expectations for future monetary policy. Warsh advocates lowering interest rates through "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which was interpreted by the market as a tightening of global liquidity, causing the US dollar index to strengthen significantly and putting pressure on precious and non-ferrous metal prices. In the short term, market sentiment will take time to recover, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, capital remains cautious. However, the medium and long-term logic supporting nickel prices—expectations of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) approvals—has not disappeared, and nickel prices are still expected to rebound. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is forecast to trade in the range of 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt next week. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, with a WoW buildup of 500 mt. Domestic social inventory was about 73,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 2,600 mt.

Nickel prices were in the doldrums this week, dominated by loose supply and demand. Although the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, nickel prices failed to get an effective boost and showed a clear downtrend. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract was relatively firm at the beginning of the week, but prices accelerated their pullback later due to weak domestic demand, closing at 115,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.84% WoW. LME nickel prices also weakened, falling consecutively and down 2.27% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 119,350 yuan/mt this week, down 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 5,100 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were sluggish this week, with downstream consumers mainly stockpiling for rigid demand and adopting a wait-and-see stance.