On 1 July 2026, the EU replaced the steel safeguard measures implemented since 2018 with a significantly stricter import quota system—this is not merely a continuation of the old policy, but a complete reconstruction of its underlying logic: the core objective has upgraded from "preventing trade diversion" to "targeted defense against high carbon and excess capacity."

[SMM Analysis] Anti-Dumping Investigation Arrived China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Encountered Major Changes

Anti-dumping Investigation Details On June 22, 2026, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a notice announcing the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation concerning imports of Cold Rolled Grain Oriented Electrical Steel (CRGO) and Amorphous Metal (AM) originating in or imported from China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, in response to an application filed by domestic producer JSW JFE Electrical Steel Nashik Private Limited. This case primarily covers products under HS codes 72251100, 72261100, and 72269930, as well as certain products under HS codes 72251920, 72251990, 72261920, 72269910, 72261990, 72269910, 72269920, and 72269990. The dumping investigation period runs from April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026 (12 months), and the injury investigation period covers April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025, and April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026. China’s Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Source: General Administration of Customs Comparing January-May exports of grain-oriented silicon steel, monthly exports in the first five months of 2025 fluctuated more sharply, with a notable pullback in February and a peak for the period in April. In the first five months of 2026, monthly exports rose steadily month by month, showing a smoother trend; overall exports for January-May 2026 were similar to those of January-May 2025, and demand outside China remained relatively stable. Source: General Administration of Customs Among the top 10 destinations for grain-oriented silicon steel exports in the first five months of 2025 and 2026, India ranked as the largest market for the second consecutive year, with outstanding growth—exports to India were about 54,400 mt in the first five months of 2025, rising to 67,600 mt in the same period of 2026, a notable increase. Turkey moved significantly up the ranking, and Mexico dropped; Slovenia and Saudi Arabia entered the top 10, while Thailand and Spain fell out of the list. Exports to traditional markets—Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, the UAE, and Vietnam—generally pulled back YoY, with only India and Turkey recording a YoY increase; India became the sole core overseas demand driver experiencing substantial volume expansion. China’s large-scale exports of grain-oriented silicon steel to India, combined with the inability of local Indian producers to compete effectively, prompted India to initiate the anti-dumping case. Estimated Timeline for Implementation of India’s Anti-Dumping Duties India’s anti-dumping investigation follows a defined timetable: a preliminary determination and provisional duties are expected within 5 to 6 months of initiation; for complex cases involving multiple countries, such as this one on grain-oriented silicon steel, the final determination can take up to 18 months. After the final recommendation is submitted to the Ministry of Finance, a further 3-month review is required, so the entire process leading to the formal imposition of duties is expected to take approximately one and a half to two years. The fixed tariffs determined by the final ruling are valid for 5 years. Before expiry, local enterprises may initiate a sunset review, with the review period also lasting 12-18 months, during which the original tariffs remain in effect. Relevant grain-oriented silicon steel export enterprises may negotiate price undertakings within a 3- to 8-month window after case initiation to avoid provisional and definitive duties. Possible impact of India's anti-dumping on China From case initiation to preliminary determination: Once the case is filed, Indian importers will proactively adopt a wait-and-see approach, suspend new long-term contracts, and turn to supply sources from Japan and South Korea, leading to a contraction in orders from China to India. In addition, relevant Chinese enterprises will incur high litigation costs and increase various document compliance expenditures; small and medium-sized mills without the capability to respond to lawsuits will directly exit the Indian market, while top-tier players will bear substantial additional costs in defending the case. When the preliminary ruling is announced after 5-6 months, a provisional anti-dumping duty (for up to 6 months) will be directly imposed, significantly raising export costs, reducing shipments to India, and causing diverted goods to flow back and impact spot prices of grain-oriented silicon steel in China, hurting steel producers' profits. This will increase the willingness to conduct maintenance and control production, put sector sentiment under pressure, and weaken the valuations of listed grain-oriented silicon steel enterprises. Downstream power equipment, such as domestic transformers and reactors exported to India, will also face obstacles. Bidding costs for complete equipment will rise, and orders from India for power grids, PV inverters, etc., will be lost. Involution in the domestic market will intensify, as low-end transformer manufacturers cut prices to compete for orders, and profits will contract concurrently. 1-2 year long-term cycle: After the 18-month final determination and Ministry of Finance approval, a high fixed tariff for 5 years will be imposed, constituting a medium- and long-term structural shock. China will be forced to adjust its grain-oriented capacity structure, explore alternative overseas markets, promote building factories abroad, comprehensively reduce its dependence on the single Indian market, focus on developing incremental grid markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, and diversify its export structure. Top-tier steel producers will go global, setting up silicon steel slitting bases and joint-venture steel mills in Southeast Asia, while transformer enterprises will simultaneously build factories overseas to circumvent finished-product tariff barriers. Overseas aspects: Indian market In the short term, Indian importers will shift to supply sources from Japan, South Korea, and Russia, leading to higher procurement costs. With insufficient domestic capacity for low-grade silicon steel, transformer manufacturers will face raw material shortages. Downstream power manufacturing associations will protest against rising costs, infrastructure project bids will rise, and the pace of grid expansion will slow down. High tariffs will raise costs across India's entire industry chain, undermining the competitiveness of its new energy and grid infrastructure compared with Southeast Asia. In the long term, policies will continue to support domestic grain-oriented silicon steel projects such as JSW-JFE. Within 5 years, domestic capacity will expand significantly, and low-end silicon steel will achieve self-sufficiency. Global Trade Market Enterprises from Japan and South Korea and Russia are seizing China’s original share in India, creating a supply substitution, while China shifts to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to form differentiated competition tracks. The processing of transformers and silicon steel is relocating to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, forming a Southeast Asian power equipment manufacturing cluster. Third-country deep processing and origin-based tariff circumvention will become a long-term conventional trade model. Data Source Statement: The other data in this report, beyond publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and reliance on SMM’s internal database models, have been comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Shanghai Metals Market reserves the final right to interpret the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and modify its content based on actual circumstances.

On July 1, the stock price of Xingye Silver&Tin rose. As of the close on July 1, Xingye Silver&Tin gained 0.24% to 33.04 yuan per share. In terms of news: On June 30, Xingye Silver&Tin announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Atlantic Tin Pte. Ltd., currently holds 3,180,525 shares (75% equity) of Atlas Tin SAS (hereinafter referred to as the “Target Company”), making it the controlling shareholder of the Target Company. To fully control the project resources and rights, maximize the release of value from the tin ore assets, and enhance core competitiveness and sustainable operations, the company intends to acquire, through a newly established subsidiary outside China (not yet established, subject to final registration of equity transfer), the aggregate 1,060,175 shares (the remaining 25% equity) of the Target Company held by Toyota Tsusho Corporation and Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd. (collectively, the “Counterparties”). As the new overseas subsidiary has not yet been incorporated, the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) will first sign a Share Purchase Agreement with the Counterparties, which stipulates that the acquisition will be completed by an entity designated by the acquirer. On June 30, 2026, the company and Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) completed the signing of the Share Purchase Agreement with the Counterparties. Upon completion of this transaction, the company will indirectly hold 100% equity of the Target Company through its subsidiaries, achieving full ownership. Details of the acquisition are as follows: 1. The company will designate a newly established overseas subsidiary (not yet established, subject to final registration of equity transfer) as the transferee to acquire 848,139 shares (20% equity) of the Target Company held by Toyota Tsusho Corporation for a consideration of $15,300,000, funded by its own funds or self-raised funds. 2. Xingye Gold (Hong Kong), a wholly-owned subsidiary, will designate a newly established overseas subsidiary (not yet established, subject to final registration) as the transferee to acquire 212,036 shares (5% equity) of the Target Company held by Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd. for a consideration of $7,813,570, funded by its own funds or self-raised funds. These two transactions together will acquire a total of 1,060,175 shares, representing 25% equity of the Target Company, for an aggregate consideration of $23,113,570. The transaction is accompanied by the signing of a Termination and Release Agreement, which will fully terminate the original Shareholders' Agreement of the Target Company upon completion of the closing, clarifying the historical rights and obligations of all parties. Regarding the mining rights of the transaction target, Xingye Silver&Tin introduced that the Target Company holds the Achmmach tin mine project, with the following details: 1. Basic Information of Mining Rights 2. Achmmach Tin Ore Resources In May 2026, Beijing SRK Resource Technology Co., Ltd. prepared the “Morocco Achmmach Project Competent Person's Report” in accordance with the JORC Code. As of December 31, 2025, with an underground mining tin cut-off grade of 0.27%, the mineral resources of the Achmmach project are as follows: The acquisition of all remaining equity held by the Japanese shareholder aims to achieve full ownership of the target company, terminate the original shareholder agreement, streamline the governance structure and enhance decision-making efficiency, secure full control of project resource rights and interests, maximize the release of value from the tin ore assets, strengthen synergy between operations in and outside China, and align with the company's global resource deployment strategy. Xingye Silver&Tin also outlined the impact of this transaction on the company: the target company has been included in the consolidated financial statements, and this acquisition of minority equity will not have a material impact on the company's current-period profit. In the future, all net profit of the target company will be attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, continuously enhancing earnings attributable to parent company shareholders. The company has ample liquidity reserves, and there is no obstacle to paying the transaction consideration, which will not have a material adverse impact on the liquidity of daily operating funds. Following full ownership, the company can coordinate and advance mine construction and operations, leverage its mining development and management experience, accelerate project implementation, solidify tin resource reserves, and have a positive effect on the company's long-term operating performance. On June 26, Xingye Silver&Tin stated on an interactive platform while responding to investor inquiries that secondary market stock prices are affected by multiple factors such as the macro environment, industry cycles, and market sentiment. The company attaches great importance to secondary market performance, will continue to strengthen investor relations management and market communication, actively carry out information dissemination and market capitalization management, and earnestly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of all shareholders. On June 26, Xingye Silver&Tin stated on an interactive platform while responding to investor inquiries that, in accordance with the JORC Code, the Competent Person SRK uses only the current Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources as the basis for ore reserve conversion and production scheduling. However, in actual operations, through ongoing production drilling and exploration activities, the company may upgrade a portion of Inferred Mineral Resources and subsequently incorporate them into the actual mine mining and processing plan. Furthermore, the stope shapes generated by SRK using Deswik software through stope optimization may not align with the stope layout adopted in the company's daily production planning. Therefore, the company's future actual production schedule and operational performance may differ from the production schedule and related forecasts presented by SRK. On the performance front: Xingye Silver&Tin disclosed in its Q1 report that from January to March 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB2,129.8691 million, up 85.32% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB1,337.6722 million, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, the company's total assets amounted to RMB19,688.8316 million, and net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were RMB10,825.4666 million. Operating Revenue Composition: For January to March 2026, the operating revenue of the company's main mineral products as a share of total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver revenue was RMB1,410.1104 million (66.21%), ore-derived tin revenue was RMB234.0354 million (10.99%), ore-derived zinc revenue was RMB228.1249 million (10.71%), ore-derived lead revenue was RMB71.8509 million (3.37%), ore-derived antimony revenue was RMB53.1029 million (2.49%), ore-derived gold revenue was RMB51.0181 million (2.40%), ore-derived iron revenue was RMB44.1733 million (2.07%), ore-derived copper revenue was RMB35.6489 million (1.67%), and ore-derived indium revenue was RMB0.5241 million (0.02%). Among these, the combined operating revenue share of ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver reached 77.19%. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report announcement stated: operating profit for the current period increased 238.16% YoY, total profit increased 236.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company increased 257.32% YoY. The main reasons: During the reporting period, the selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose compared with the same period last year; Yubang Mining's capacity was gradually released, leading to significant YoY increases in ore-derived silver production and sales volume; and the disposal of a 60% stake in Shuangyuan Nonferrous generated investment income of RMB321 million. Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report shows that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB5,555.2536 million, up 30.09% YoY; total profit of RMB2,096.2370 million, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB1,704.2393 million, up 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin’s announcement shows: In 2025, the operating revenue of the company's main mineral products as a share of total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver revenue was RMB2,175.7825 million (39.17%), ore-derived tin revenue was RMB1,649.6398 million (29.70%), ore-derived zinc revenue was RMB975.8673 million (17.57%), ore-derived lead revenue was RMB220.9450 million (3.98%), ore-derived iron revenue was RMB180.3799 million (3.25%), ore-derived copper revenue was RMB133.0043 million (2.39%), ore-derived antimony revenue was RMB100.3568 million (1.81%), ore-derived gold revenue was RMB82.3402 million (1.48%), and ore-derived bismuth revenue was RMB16.6744 million (0.30%). Among these, the combined operating revenue share of ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver reached 68.86%. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group principally engaged in the exploration, mining, and beneficiation of non-ferrous and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company has over 20 subsidiaries, including 8 mining companies in operation: Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining. The Achmmach tin mine under Atlas Tin SAS, a subsidiary of Atlantic Tin, is in the construction phase; Tanghe Shidai Mining is in suspension, while Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui are in the exploration phase. Hainan Fund is primarily engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) is mainly engaged in metals and mining trade and corporate M&A, responsible for expanding into markets outside China and acquiring high-quality overseas mineral resources; Hainan International Trade and Tianjin International Trade are primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal ore product sales and some raw material procurement; Xingye Ruijin primarily undertakes process research, technology R&D, and upgrading in areas such as prospecting, mining and beneficiation, and comprehensive tailings recycling. Tibet Shannan Antimony Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an League Fuxingtun Mining serve as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired an 85% stake in Yubang Mining. According to statistics from the Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's single silver mine ranks first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages and laid a solid resource foundation for its sustainable development. At the same time, using its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) as the investment vehicle, the company intensified investments in mineral resources outside China and successfully acquired a 100% stake in Atlantic Tin, a key move in executing its "going global" strategy. Based on the large-scale tin mine classification standard in the "Classification Standard for Resource/Reserve Scale of Mineral Resources" (DZ/T 0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin is now equivalent to five large deposits. Through this consolidation of overseas tin ore resources, the company has further refined its international tin layout and reserved vital strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance is derived from its non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation business. During the reporting period, revenue from this segment accounted for 99.64% of total 2025 operating revenue. The main factors influencing the operating performance of the mining and beneficiation segment include the production and sales volume of major products, market prices, and the costs of the non-ferrous and precious metal mining and beneficiation business. Regarding its operating plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the final year of the company's "Second Three-Year" Plan. The board will closely focus on the theme of high-quality development, fully implement established work objectives, continuously deepen the concept of "trust and collaboration," and make an all-out push toward the plan's concluding goals, with a focus on the following: 1. Uphold the bottom lines of safety and environmental protection, using the 2026 "Year of Implementing Safety Management" as a lever to fully enforce safety responsibilities, consolidate the achievements of the "Year of Collective Safety Calm," and enhance risk anticipation and process control to resolutely prevent all types of safety and environmental accidents, achieving safe, stable, and green-low carbon development. 2. Vigorously advance key project construction, strengthen whole-process management of project budgets, schedules, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects including the 2.97 million mt capacity upgrade and expansion at Yinman Mining, the 8.25 million mt capacity upgrade and expansion at Yubang Mining, the Morocco project, and the Budun Yingen Mining (trusteeship) project, ensuring they are completed and reach full production on schedule to release capacity benefits. 3. Continue to intensify exploration and resource increase efforts, balance the relationship between production operations and geological exploration, steadily advance exploration at existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate resource-to-reserve conversion and upgrades, and continuously strengthen the resource foundation. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration, leverage the core regional advantages of Inner Mongolia, steadily expand overseas resource deployment; adhere to silver and tin as the main business direction, enriching and optimizing the resource portfolio. Solidly advance the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling Shares, actively track high-quality mineral project opportunities in and outside China, and enhance overall competitiveness through industrial synergy-driven M&A. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, ensure that all systems, processes, and control requirements are effectively implemented, and elevate the company's refined management level; reinforce enforcement capacity to guarantee that production plans, comprehensive budgets, and all work deployments are fully executed, and promote deep integration of corporate culture and operational management. 6. Push forward preparations for a Hong Kong listing at full speed, accelerate the establishment of dual capital market platforms in and outside China, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for resource integration and strategy execution, and propel the company's high-quality sustainable development to a new level. A Guosen Securities research report dated April 24 showed: The company's production of major mineral species has steadily increased in recent years. In 2025, growth was driven by both higher silver prices and volumes, while the surge in tin prices offset the impact on production volume. Externally-driven M&A achieved notable results, lifting silver and tin resource reserves to a new level. In 2025, the company completed two major strategic acquisitions. 1) Acquisition of an 85% stake in Yubang Mining: The company acquired the 85% stake for RMB2.388 billion in January 2025. Yubang Mining is the largest single silver mine in Asia and the fifth largest globally. This acquisition increased the company's silver metal resources to 29,800 mt, significantly elevating its industry standing. 2) Acquisition of a 100% stake in Atlantic Tin: The company completed the acquisition in August 2025, gaining its Achmmach tin mine in Morocco. The mine holds tin metal resources of 213,300 mt, equivalent to five large tin deposits, boosting the company's total tin metal resources to 391,600 mt. Risk warnings: risks that the company's resource development progress falls short of expectations; risk of wild swings in metal prices.

Australian graphite developer International Graphite has signed a non-binding supply and offtake agreement with UK trading firm Wogen. Under the agreement, Wogen will supply up to 10,000 tpy of graphite flake concentrate to International Graphite's Collie micronised graphite plant in Western Australia, while International Graphite will supply at least 3,000 tpy of micronised spherical graphite to Wogen's Pacific unit for distribution across Asia-Pacific, primarily Japan and South Korea. The companies intend to finalize a binding agreement before the Collie facility begins commercial production in mid-2027.

Canadian International Trade Minister Sidhu Maninder revealed in an interview that Ottawa and Tokyo are negotiating cooperation options, including joint mining projects, offtake agreements, and joint stockpiling for minerals such as graphite and gallium. "We are providing Japan with opportunities to develop Canada's critical minerals." He cited the graphite offtake agreement between Nouveau Monde Graphite and Panasonic as an example to illustrate this point, noting that graphite is a critical material for batteries. Sidhu is leading a large delegation to Tokyo, which includes nearly 300 representatives from 180 enterprises and organizations, marking the largest such mission by this North American country in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan and Western governments and manufacturers have been seeking secure supplies of rare earth minerals.