Former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has forecasted that although the US inflation rate is showing a slowing trend, President Trump's tariff policies will lead to higher inflation and a decline in average household income . "I expect that, due to the impact of tariffs, the inflation rate will reach at least 3%, or slightly above 3%, this year," Yellen said on a show on Thursday. However, Yellen also pointed out that, in terms of Trump's tariff policies, "there is still a great deal of uncertainty about which (tariff measures) will actually take effect." But she said, "I am quite confident that we will see an impact on prices from (Trump's tariff policies)." Yellen added that this would reduce average household income. "The most recent and optimistic estimates I've seen suggest that the average household will lose about $1,000 in income due to tariffs and their ripple effects," she said. "This figure could be higher, depending on how the tariff plans progress," she said. Yellen's remarks came as data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the increase in the inflation rate in recent months has been lower than expected. Data released on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY in May, both lower than market expectations of 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at its lowest level since March 2021 and also below market expectations of 2.9%. The cooling of inflation has prompted US President Trump to increase pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. Trump fiercely criticized Powell as a "dummy" at the White House on Thursday, claiming that a 2 percentage point interest rate cut could save the US $600 billion a year. Meanwhile, Trump's allies have also argued that tariffs will not exacerbate inflation. Yellen, who served as Fed Chairman from 2014 to 2018, said that the Fed should now "be concerned about the possibility of second-round effects, or wage increases or inflation expectations leading to persistent inflation" . She pointed out that the Fed "cannot accurately gauge how tariffs will affect labour market spending or inflation." "Therefore, I expect (the Fed) to continue to remain firmly on the sidelines," she added, suggesting that the Fed may continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

SMM, June 12: Metal Market: As of the overnight close, domestic metals showed mixed performance, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead rising together. SHFE aluminum increased by 0.4%, SHFE lead by 0.09%, while SHFE nickel fell by 0.95% and SHFE copper by 0.77%. The fluctuations in the decline of other metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract fell by 0.21%, while the main aluminum casting contract rose by 0.21%. Most ferrous metals series declined, with stainless steel being the only one to rise, up by 0.48%. Rebar and HRC both fell by more than 0.4%, with rebar down by 0.47% and HRC by 0.48%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.71% and coke by 0.85%. Overseas base metals showed mixed performance, with LME copper, LME zinc, and LME nickel rising together. LME zinc increased by 0.23%, LME copper by 0.19%, and LME nickel by 0.12%. The fluctuations in the decline of other metals were relatively small. In the overnight precious metals market, COMEX gold rose by 0.98%, while COMEX silver fell by 0.77%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.42%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.75%. As of 8:16 a.m. on June 12, the overnight close from last Friday's session 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: From June 9 to 10 local time, He Lifeng, the Chinese head of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and Vice Premier of the State Council, held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with Beth Van Scoyoc, the US head of the mechanism, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and Trade Representative Katherine Tai in London, UK. Both sides engaged in candid and in-depth dialogue, exchanging in-depth views on economic and trade issues of mutual concern. They reached a consensus in principle on measures to implement the important agreement reached during the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5 and to consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva economic and trade talks, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. Li Chenggang, China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, said in London, UK, on the evening of June 10 that over the past two days, the Chinese and US teams had in-depth exchanges and reached a framework for implementing the consensus reached during the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5 and the Geneva talks. At a regular press conference yesterday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian introduced that the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation was held in Changsha, Hunan Province. President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the meeting, announcing that China would implement zero-tariff measures for 100% of tariff lines for products from 53 African countries with diplomatic relations with China. US Dollar: The US dollar fell by 0.42% overnight to close at 98.63. This was because data showed that inflation in the world's largest economy last month was lower than expected, suggesting that the US Fed might resume interest rate cuts sooner rather than later. The US Department of Labor announced that after rising 0.2% in April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by another 0.1% in May. Economists had previously forecast a 0.2% rise in CPI. Core price pressures in May were also relatively small, with core CPI rising only 0.1% after a 0.2% increase in April. However, the overall CPI rose to 2.4% YoY, up from 2.3% YoY in April. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently see a 68% probability of the US Fed cutting interest rates in September. Currently, the market's focus is on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data to be released on Thursday, ahead of the Fed's June 17-18 meeting. (Wenhua Comprehensive) In other currency news: In the afternoon in New York, the US dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 144.58 yen; the euro rose 0.5% against the US dollar to $1.1484, after briefly paring gains earlier. The Swiss franc fell 0.3% against the US dollar to 0.8205 francs. The British pound rose against the generally weak US dollar, gaining 0.3% to $1.3542. In terms of data: Today, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 31, US PPI YoY for May, US core PPI YoY for May, Japan's BSI Large Manufacturing Confidence Index for Q2, UK GDP MoM for April, UK industrial production MoM for April, UK industrial production YoY for April, UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for April, and UK seasonally adjusted trade balance for April, among other data, will be released. In addition, at 12:00 on June 12, US President Trump raised tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism. In crude oil news: Overnight, oil prices in both markets surged, with US crude rising 5.11% and Brent crude rising 5.85%, reaching their highest levels in more than two months amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. According to CCTV News, local time on June 11, Pentagon officials said that US military families in Bahrain could temporarily leave the country. Separately, sources said that US Defense Secretary Hegseth had authorized "voluntary departures" for US military families stationed across the Middle East. Traders were surprised by this and rushed to buy crude oil futures. Iraq is the second-largest crude oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after Saudi Arabia. Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, said, "The market did not expect such a significant regional risk." The ongoing tensions with Iran mean that Iran's oil supplies may continue to be restricted by sanctions. The optimistic trade outlook between the US and China has also contributed to the sustained rise in oil prices, potentially stimulating energy demand in the world's two largest economies. CCTV News reported that from June 9 to 10 local time, He Lifeng, the Chinese lead negotiator for economic and trade affairs and Vice Premier of the State Council, held the first meeting of the China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism in London, UK, with Beth Van Scoyoc, the US lead negotiator and Secretary of the Treasury, Gina Raimondo, Secretary of Commerce, and Katherine Tai, US Trade Representative. Both sides engaged in candid and in-depth dialogue, exchanging views on economic and trade issues of mutual concern, reaching a consensus in principle on measures to implement the important agreements reached during the phone call between the heads of state of the two countries on June 5 and to consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and making new progress in addressing economic and trade concerns of both sides. The inventory report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories declined last week due to increased refining activity, pushing up gasoline and distillate inventories. For the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, compared to market expectations of a 2 million barrel decline. The EIA stated that US gasoline inventories rose by 1.5 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, compared to market expectations of a 900,000 barrel increase. US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.2 million barrels to 108.9 million barrels, compared to market expectations of an 800,000 barrel increase. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua)

》Click to View SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database 》Subscribe to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices 5.7 SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,770 yuan/mt, reached a high of 19,860 yuan/mt, a low of 19,760 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,760 yuan/mt, down 0.55%. Trading volume was 50,500 lots, and open interest was 186,000 lots. LME aluminum opened at $2,431/mt, hit a high of $2,440/mt, a low of $2,428.5/mt, and closed at $2,438/mt, up $11/mt, or 0.45%. Macro: (1) The Ministry of Commerce, considering global expectations, China's interests, and calls from the US industry and consumers, decided to agree to engage with the US. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as the lead for Sino-US economic and trade relations, will meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland. (Neutral ★) (2) Minister of Finance Lan Fuan stated at the 58th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank that China will adopt more proactive macro policies and is confident in achieving a growth target of around 5% in 2025. China will continue to build a unified domestic market and expand high-level opening-up. (Bullish ★) (3) The latest VAT invoice data shows that during the Labour Day holiday, national sales revenue in consumer-related industries increased by 15.2% YoY. The trade-in policy for home appliances and communication equipment spurred robust demand. (Bullish ★) Fundamentals: (1) According to SMM, on May 6, the total social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 8,274 mt, an increase of 135 mt compared to the last trading day before the holiday. (Bearish ★) (2) SMM statistics show that on May 6, the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was 636,000 mt, an increase of 22,000 mt compared to the last trading day before the holiday. (Bearish ★) Primary Aluminum Market: Yesterday, the SHFE aluminum fluctuated significantly in the early session, with prices pulling back sharply after oscillating. Although there was a slight rebound later, the center had already fallen below 20,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, overall trading activity was moderate. Specifically, in east China, ample spot supply and renewed bearish sentiment among downstream players led to mainly discount transactions. Early in the session, the market gradually shifted to -10 from the SMM average price. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 19,850 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to the 05 contract, a decrease of 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the central China market, trading was moderate, with most deals made at the SMM average price. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected inventory buildup in the Gongyi region post-holiday, leading suppliers to attempt to stand firm on quotes. Secondary Aluminum Raw Materials: Yesterday, the primary aluminum spot fell 210 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels, with SMM A00 spot closing at 19,850 yuan/mt. The overall scrap aluminum market adjusted downward in line with primary aluminum. After the Labour Day holiday, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry declined, and downstream processing enterprises showed weak order releases, with purchases mainly driven by necessity. Baled UBC scrap aluminum was concentratedly quoted at 14,900-15,500 yuan/mt (excluding tax), and shredded aluminum tense scrap was quoted at 15,750-17,250 yuan/mt (excluding tax). By product, the supply of wrought aluminum products such as bare bright aluminum wire and shredded wrought aluminum alloy scrap remained tight, with price adjustments ranging from 50-100 yuan/mt. For baled UBC, except for continued price increases in Jiangxi, other regions generally saw price increases of 100-150 yuan/mt. In the short term, the scrap aluminum market is likely to hover at highs, but if primary aluminum experiences significant fluctuations due to macro factors (such as US Fed policies, geopolitical conflicts) or if domestic secondary aluminum producers cut production, scrap aluminum prices may face temporary pressure. Secondary Aluminum Alloys: Today, SHFE aluminum opened and fluctuated downward. SMM A00 aluminum price fell 210 yuan/mt to 19,850 yuan/mt, and the domestic SMM ADC12 price was adjusted down by 100 yuan/mt to the range of 20,300-20,500 yuan/mt. In the import market, overseas ADC12 quotes slightly decreased to $2,420-2,440/mt, with the immediate loss for imported ADC12 narrowing to within 600 yuan/mt. On the first trading day after the holiday, the secondary aluminum market continued to be sluggish, with low purchasing willingness from downstream buyers and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Most enterprises lowered their quotes by 100 yuan/mt, but some maintained stable quotes due to cost support. Given the persistently weak demand, it is expected that ADC12 prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term. Summary: From a macro perspective, domestic supportive policies, including the Ministry of Finance's commitment to active fiscal policies to drive economic growth, and the 15.2% YoY increase in "Labour Day" holiday consumption (driven by the trade-in policy for home appliances), have boosted market confidence. The Ministry of Commerce's signal for Sino-US economic and trade engagement indicates a stabilizing policy intention. In the overseas market, the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the ongoing Sino-US tariff war, especially the uncertain outcomes of the US Treasury Secretary's talks, have added to market volatility. Fundamentally, the cost side of the aluminum industry remains stable, while the demand side is at a critical period of transition between peak and off-peak seasons. However, except for the aluminum wire and cable sector, which saw an increase in operating rates, all other downstream segments performed poorly in the week before the holiday. Entering May, there is an expectation of declining orders. Driven by pre-holiday restocking, domestic aluminum ingot inventories accelerated destocking at the end of April, approaching the 600,000 mt mark, providing some support to pre-holiday aluminum prices. This year, the arrivals of aluminum products during the Labour Day holiday were lower than the same period last year, with overall inventory at a three-year low, better than expected. The overall inventory buildup was manageable and did not significantly pressure post-holiday aluminum prices. However, the overall macro front still has a bearish outlook, and it is expected that domestic aluminum prices will mainly be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to SMM.]

Former US Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen stated on Monday that the economic uncertainty caused by Trump's "tariff stick" has triggered a "very concerning" trend in US dollar-based assets. She bluntly said, "The recent sell-off of US Treasury bonds indicates a 'worrying decline' in confidence in US policy-making." Yellen mentioned in a program, "Over the past few weeks, we have seen a very unusual pattern in the developments of the financial markets. I do not think this is a manifestation of market dysfunction, where market liquidity completely dries up, but rather a pattern that shows a loss of confidence in US economic policies." "The safety of fundamental financial assets is indeed very concerning," she added. Yellen served at the US Fed for nearly a decade, and was the Fed Chairman from 2014 to February 2018 during the Obama administration, later serving as Treasury Secretary in the Biden administration. She said that the current market indicates that investors are cautious about US Treasury bonds. She explained, "Normally, when the situation is chaotic and uncertainty is high, investors would want to invest in safe assets (buying US Treasury bonds), which often lowers the yield of US Treasury bonds, but now the yield of US Treasury bonds is rising. And when the yield of US Treasury bonds rises, it usually attracts capital inflows, thereby boosting the US dollar, but the US dollar is now falling again." Yellen warned, "The recent drop in US bond prices and the sharp rise in yields are unusual phenomena, raising concerns that the US bond market might 'crash'." "This indicates, investors are starting to avoid US dollar assets and are questioning the safety of US Treasury bonds, which are the cornerstone of the global financial system," she added. In addition, regarding Trump's "ever-changing" tariff policies, Yellen criticized, "Things have been very chaotic. The implementation and suspension of reciprocal tariffs... this indeed creates an environment where families and businesses are paralyzed by future uncertainty—making planning almost impossible." She also mentioned the US Fed. She said that if financial stability risks do arise, the US Fed will have the ability to intervene, but she "has not seen" the relevant factors come into play, and "hopes" they will not. "Tariff policies and the uncertainty they create present the most difficult situation for the US Fed." Yellen believes that the US Fed needs to monitor inflation expectations, while stating "the US Fed will be reluctant to cut interest rates". This is not the first time Yellen has criticized Trump in recent days. Last week, she bluntly warned that President Trump's tariff policies have "taken a devastating blow" to the economy. "This is the most severe policy damage to our economy I have seen in my career. Trump's tariff plan is causing enormous damage to our economy," she said.

Former US Treasury Secretary and former US Fed Chair Janet Yellen criticized on Thursday that President Trump's tariff policy has "taken a devastating blow" to the economy. She said in a program, "When President Trump took over (the White House), the US economy was growing very strongly, the labour market was functioning well, the unemployment rate was low, and the record of job creation was excellent. Our economy was running well, but President Trump has sabotaged it." It is reported that Yellen's criticism mainly focused on Trump's tariff policy, and the US stock market had previously fallen into a "continuous decline" due to his various threats and capriciousness. The latest episode occurred this week: shortly after firmly launching "reciprocal tariffs," Trump announced that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries that did not take retaliatory actions. Trump said that during this period, he would significantly reduce the reciprocal tariffs on these countries to 10%, and the suspension measures would take effect immediately. His move initially caused the three major US stock indices to surge violently on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq index rising more than 12%, marking the second-largest single-day gain in history. However, by Thursday, as optimism faded and investors regained their composure, the three major indices collectively pulled back significantly. When asked "how to evaluate the Trump administration's handling of the economy so far," Yellen replied, "I'm afraid I can't give it a passing grade." According to the latest news, Trump's thinking has changed again. It is reported that he said at a cabinet meeting on Thursday that if countries cannot reach an agreement with the US, he will call off the 90-day "suspension period." "If we cannot reach the agreement we want to reach, or the agreement we must reach, or the agreement that is beneficial to both parties, then we will return to the original state," he said. According to White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the US Trade Representative's Office has informed him that about 15 countries have already made "clear offers," and the US side is studying and evaluating these offers to decide whether they are good enough to be submitted to Trump for review. He also said that the White House is scheduled to hold a high-level meeting on Thursday to discuss the next steps in the negotiations. Trump's "tariff stick" has attracted a lot of criticism. European Central Bank Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that US President Trump's policies in recent weeks have weakened confidence in the US dollar. He said in a recent interview that the Trump administration's protectionism and unpredictability are "bad factors" for the US economy, but this may be a positive factor for the development of the euro's "international role." Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said earlier this week that due to the US government's comprehensive tariff hikes on trading partners, the US economy is now heading towards a recession, which may lead to 2 million Americans losing their jobs.

On Thursday, April 10, the US stock market overall pulled back, with all three major indices closing with significant declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5% to 39,593.66, the S&P 500 dropped 3.46% to 5,268.05, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 4.31% to 16,387.31. In the previous trading session, US stocks surged significantly, with the Nasdaq closing up 12.16%, marking the second-largest single-day gain in the index's history. During the session, US President Trump announced that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries not taking retaliatory actions. Following Trump's announcement, risk assets including US stocks collectively rose, but by Thursday, this optimism quickly subsided, with a risk-off tone returning to the mainstream. Safe-haven assets such as the yen, Swiss franc, and gold strengthened noticeably, while risk assets like US stocks gave back some of their gains. SimCorp executive Melissa Brown stated that investors have sobered up, and uncertainty is a major issue. Brown added that it is currently difficult to determine whether the market has hit bottom or peaked, as both market narratives and investor perceptions have changed significantly. Former US Treasury Secretary and former US Fed Chair Janet Yellen commented that Trump's economic policies are the "most severe self-inflicted wounds" in a well-functioning economy, and the likelihood of a US recession has increased. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a recent report that delaying some reciprocal tariffs does help the market but does not reduce uncertainty. Before the market opened, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI rose 2.4% YoY in March, below market expectations, while core CPI increased 2.8% YoY, the smallest rise since March 2021. Economist Harriet Torry commented that typically, a slowdown in CPI YoY growth would be welcome news, but this time, investors, policymakers, and businesses will find it difficult to overinterpret the March data. Boston Fed President Collins stated that the US Fed's current stance of keeping rates steady seems to be the best option. Collins also mentioned that tariffs are pushing up US goods prices, which could lead the US Fed to delay interest rate cuts. Hot Stock Performance The "Magnificent Seven" all pulled back, with Apple down 4.24%, Microsoft down 2.34%, Nvidia down 5.91%, Amazon down 5.17%, Google C down 3.53%, Meta down 6.74%, and Tesla down 7.27%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.97%, with all 30 components closing lower. AMD dropped 8.41%, Broadcom declined 6.94%, Qualcomm fell 6.4%, Arm Holdings slid 5.75%, ASML dipped 5.49%, and TSMC decreased 4.8%. Among Chinese stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.14%. Hot Chinese stocks were mixed, with Li Auto up 5.25%, GDS Holdings up 4.94%, TAL Education up 3.21%, XPeng Motors up 3.04%, and JD.com up 1.44%. Alibaba fell 0.57%, New Oriental dropped 0.84%, NIO declined 0.91%, Tencent Music slid 1.19%, Baidu decreased 2.63%, and Pinduoduo plunged 6.16%. Company News [Amazon CEO Jassy Strongly Defends Massive AI Investments: Not Spending Will Leave You Behind] Amazon's leader Andy Jassy made a rare high-profile statement in his annual letter to shareholders, vigorously defending the company's massive investments in artificial intelligence. Jassy wrote in the letter: "If your mission is to make customers' daily lives better and easier, and you believe every customer experience will be reshaped by AI, then you will invest deeply and broadly in AI." [STMicroelectronics Introduces Multiple Cost-Cutting Reform Measures] European chipmaker STMicroelectronics announced several measures aimed at adjusting its manufacturing layout and cutting costs. This comes as the company's CEO Jean-Marc Chéry faces increasing pressure over performance. The company stated it will focus on improving efficiency, automation, and leveraging AI to enhance its investments in key technology R&D areas such as design, as well as large-scale assets in advanced European manufacturing. [Novavax's COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Questioned] Novavax Pharmaceuticals closed down 19.56%. US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. expressed doubts about the efficacy of the company's COVID-19 vaccine, as its approval in the US has been delayed. [US AI Drug Development Stocks Rise After Hours as FDA Abandons Animal Testing Principle] US AI drug development stocks rose after hours, with Certara up over 25%, Schrodinger up over 18%, Recursion Pharmaceuticals up over 21%, Absci Corp up over 17%, and Charles River up over 6%. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced it will gradually abandon animal testing for many drugs, including monoclonal antibodies, in favor of "more effective human-relevant research methods." [Reagan Airport Incident: Two American Airlines Planes Collide on Runway] The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) stated on the 10th that an American Airlines plane collided with the wingtip of another American Airlines plane while taxiing on the runway at Washington Reagan National Airport. One of the planes was carrying US Congress members, but no injuries were reported. The FAA will investigate the incident. This year, multiple incidents have occurred near Washington Reagan National Airport.