As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, oil industry executives from companies such as ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Shell issued warnings on Tuesday. They stated that further attacks on critical energy infrastructure could have severe consequences for global energy supply and prices.

At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell at 2:30 AM. The market generally expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. A recent Reuters survey showed that 103 out of 105 economists surveyed expected rates to remain unchanged, while 2 expected a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. In the same survey, among the 105 economists, 59 predicted that the US Fed would resume interest rate cuts in the next quarter (possibly in September), while 60% of economists expected two interest rate cuts this year, consistent with the median dot plot in March and relatively aligned with money market pricing, which anticipates a 46-basis-point easing by the end of the year. Newsquawk noted in its outlook that, given the ongoing uncertainty about the economic impact of Trump's tariff policies, the US Fed may continue to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach and closely monitor the latest SEP, which will be released alongside the interest rate decision; among which, the 2025 dot plot will be a key focus, currently indicating a 50-basis-point interest rate cut this year. As repeatedly emphasized by the vast majority of committee members this year, the clear message is that there is currently no obvious need for immediate policy adjustments, and adopting a patient approach is the best choice. Future data releases will ultimately bridge the divergent views on inflation and growth/employment. Therefore, as Jefferies Group pointed out, "waiting and seeing" is better than "pre-emptive action." Recent data have shown strong job growth and some easing of inflation, although tariff risks remain a concern, while the market is now also paying extra attention to the potential inflationary impact of the Israel-Iran conflict. Future data releases will be crucial for policy formulation . Policy Statement Officials may no longer say that uncertainty has "further increased," but will simply state that it "remains elevated." Regarding the June FOMC statement, Morgan Stanley believes that, given the high degree of uncertainty and the risks on both sides of the Fed's mandate, the most likely outcome is minimal changes in wording. The statement may still mention the ambiguous impact of net export fluctuations on overall GDP data signals. April's trade data showed a significant reversal in imports due to the reversal of some "front-loading" purchasing behavior. The US Fed will continue to draw signals from final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP minus trade and inventory) and final sales to domestic private purchasers (final sales to domestic purchasers minus government spending). Recently, inflation data have generally fallen short of expectations, which implies that there is a risk for committee members to revise the phrase "inflation remains elevated." In recent months, the YoY change rates for both headline and core inflation have declined slightly, consistent with further inflation declines prior to the tariffs. However, Morgan Stanley believes that the anticipated tariff effects, combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East and soaring oil prices, may keep the Fed's assessment of inflation unchanged. Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed has not yet reached a consensus on this matter ; if so, the key message in the statement will be that "uncertainty remains high." Summary of Economic Projections The Fed's meeting statement and Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference are expected to reiterate a wait-and-see stance, but the latest interest rate dot plot will directly reveal the FOMC's expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year and beyond. UBS forecasts that Powell may emphasize the uncertainty of the economic outlook at the press conference, and even downplay the guidance role of the interest rate dot plot. However, UBS believes that the tone of this meeting will be relatively hawkish —the robust performance of non-farm payrolls data in May is sufficient to support the Fed in maintaining interest rates unchanged, and the duration of high interest rates may be longer than expected in March. Therefore, UBS expects the median interest rate for 2025 and 2026 to be raised. In addition, the June Summary of Economic Projections will more fully consider the impact of reciprocal tariffs compared to March, which may lead to further increases in inflation and unemployment rate expectations. Citi maintains its previous judgment, believing that the median of the dot plot will still show two interest rate cuts this year (each of 25 basis points). Goldman Sachs' economic model indicates that the effective tariff rate will ultimately rise by 14% , with over 9% coming from tariff measures already in effect and the remainder stemming from anticipated industry-specific or key imported goods tariffs to be implemented subsequently. Based on this assumption, and combined with the current limited policy transmission data, Goldman Sachs forecasts that core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation will rebound to a peak of 3.4%. More severely, reciprocal tariffs may lead to a nearly 1% decline in GDP growth this year by suppressing consumer spending and exacerbating uncertainty in corporate investment. If combined with the chain reactions of fiscal and immigration policy adjustments, the YoY GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 may slow down to 1.25% (below potential levels), with the unemployment rate rising by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4%. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed to slightly lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%, while raising its unemployment rate forecast for the same year to 4.5%. On inflation, the overall and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 may be revised to 3.0% and 2.3%, respectively. These adjustments reflect that, despite the moderate performance of recent economic growth, labour market, and inflation data, the upward pressure on tariff rates has significantly widened compared to the March meeting. Dot Plot Goldman Sachs anticipates that the US Fed will adopt a conservative stance on the dot plot. Although the median dot may indicate two interest rate cuts to 3.875% in 2025 and another two cuts to 3.375% in 2026, the voting distribution for 2025 is expected to be extremely tight —10 officials support two rate cuts, while the other nine lean towards only one cut or no cut at all. The bank also forecasts that the average interest rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 will be slightly revised upwards, as some officials may delay or cancel their interest rate cut plans for this year. Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase pointed out that, since the release of the March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), changes in trade policy have forced the US Fed to significantly adjust its economic outlook, as evidenced by the subtle changes in the wording of the May FOMC statement. JPMorgan Chase expects that, while the "stagflationary adjustment" does not explicitly guide the direction of the dot plot, the bank still believes that the overall tone will lean towards hawkishness —especially after Powell emphasized the priority of price stability at the May press conference, most members of the Committee may have shifted in tandem. JPMorgan Chase forecasts that interest rates will approach neutral levels by the end of 2027, while the median long-term neutral interest rate may be revised upwards by 0.125% to 3.125%. First Interest Rate Cut: December as the Last Line of Defense? Despite widespread market bets on an interest rate cut starting in September, Goldman Sachs maintains that the FOMC will conduct its first interest rate cut in December, followed by two more cuts in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3.5%-3.75%. Its rationale is that, apart from tariffs, recent inflation data have actually been weak—expected wage growth from surveys has fallen to 3.0%, and alternative indicators such as the increase in rents for new tenants have also pulled back to 2.0%, all suggesting that core PCE inflation may fall below 2.0%. However, the peak impact of summer tariffs on inflation coincides with the Fed's decision-making window, making action before December unlikely. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs recently lowered its probability of a recession within 12 months from a brief spike of 50% in early April to 30%, which is still double the historical average. After risk adjustment, the bank's probability-weighted interest rate forecast is broadly in line with market pricing, suggesting that current interest rate cut expectations have already fully priced in the potential risks of economic deterioration. Technical Analysis of Gold FXStreet analyst Dhwani Mehta stated that from a technical perspective, the bullish bias in gold prices remains intact as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the 50 midline, currently near 55. Gold prices have also successfully held above the previous strong resistance level (now turned support) of $3,377, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the record-breaking rally in April. If the outcome of the US Fed meeting is interpreted as hawkish, gold prices will need to find a firm foothold below the aforementioned support level. Once 3,350 , the psychological resistance level in US dollars, is breached, the next downside cushion will point to the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 3,341 US dollars. Further downside will test the 50-day SMA at 3,308 US dollars. To sustain a higher move, gold prices must effectively break through the static resistance level at 3,440 US dollars. The next upside target is at the two-month high of 3,453 US dollars, and a break above this could challenge the all-time high of 3,500 US dollars.

As reminded by a Caixin article on Tuesday evening, overnight and into the morning, overseas markets have been busy reassessing the prospects of the Middle East conflict, with the three major US stock indices collectively under pressure and declining. As of Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 fell 0.84% to 5,982.72 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.91% to 19,521.09 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% to 42,215.8 points. As a bellwether for the Middle East conflict, international oil prices surged again. (Daily chart of Brent crude oil, source: TradingView) According to CCTV News, as the military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the market's focus has shifted to whether the US military will intervene. According to reports, US President Trump met with his national security team in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday to weigh whether to further intervene in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. US Treasury bond prices also rose simultaneously, though this was also related to weak US retail, housing, and industrial output data. Later on Wednesday (early Thursday Beijing time), the US Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision and hold a press conference. The market generally expects that before a series of uncertainties that could trigger inflation are resolved, Fed officials will have no room to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan Chase, who successfully predicted the April rebound, said this week that despite the success of investors' strategy of buying the dip in the US stock market this year, with negative news always being rewarded after fading away, it is now best to reduce risk exposure. Regardless of the Israel-Iran situation, the US stock market itself is already ripe for a correction. The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey also shows that about 54% of institutional investors expect international stocks to be the best-performing asset class over the next five years, while only 23% choose US stocks. Performance of Popular Stocks Tech giants generally fell on Tuesday, with Apple down 1.4%, Microsoft down 0.23%, Amazon down 0.59%, Nvidia down 0.39%, Google-A down 0.46%, Tesla down 3.88%, and Meta down 0.7%. Chinese ADRs also weakened due to market sentiment, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing down 1.77%. As of the close, Alibaba was down 0.8%, JD.com was down 0.93%, Baidu was down 1.42%, Pinduoduo was down 0.25%, Bilibili was down 2.6%, NIO was down 2.27%, NetEase was down 1.12%, and Futu Holdings was down 1.47%. The "Traditional Chinese Medicine + Brain-Computer Interface" concept stock that captured market attention yesterday, Brain Regeneration Technology, continued to rise by 30%, reaching a market capitalization of $38.5 billion, with a cumulative increase of 59,900% since the beginning of the year. It should be emphasized that the core reason for the stock's speculative surge lies in its extremely small free float. Company News [Amazon CEO Issues Warning on "AI Taking Jobs"] On Tuesday local time, Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, the world's largest e-commerce and cloud computing platform, publicly wrote that as the company widely adopts AI to enhance efficiency, it is expected that the overall workforce will be reduced. [US Energy Giant Chevron Officially Enters Lithium Industry] US energy giant Chevron announced on Tuesday its entry into the lithium industry. The company acquired two oilfield areas with the intention of building a "commercial-scale" lithium business in the US. Chevron stated that in the future, it will utilize the "Direct Lithium Extraction" (DLE) process at oilfields to extract lithium from brine. [Coinbase to Seek SEC Approval for Tokenized Equities] Paul Grewal, Chief Legal Officer of Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange and newly added member of the S&P 500 Index, revealed that the company is seeking approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a "tokenized equities" service. [Eli Lilly to Acquire Gene-Editing Startup Verve for $1.3 Billion] On Tuesday Eastern Time, US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly announced that it would acquire gene-editing startup Verve Therapeutics for up to $1.3 billion. In response to this news, Verve's stock price closed up 81.50% on Tuesday. [JPMorgan Chase Launches Deposit Token JPMD, Emphasizing It's Different from Stablecoins] JPMorgan Chase stated on Tuesday that it plans to launch a so-called deposit token, JPMD, on Coinbase's public blockchain Base, which is built on the Ethereum network. The token will provide customers with 24/7 settlement services and the ability to pay interest to holders. The Wall Street giant stated that this is a so-called "permissioned token," meaning it is limited to JPMorgan Chase's institutional clients only—different from most publicly circulating stablecoins. [Tesla's Stock Falls Due to Temporary Production Halt News] Tesla's stock price fell by 3.88% on Tuesday amid news that the company would suspend production of the Cybertruck and Model Y car models at its Austin, Texas, factory for a week. It is reported that the production halt for maintenance will begin on June 30, marking the third similar shutdown at the Austin factory in the past year. [Meta to Launch AI Glasses in Collaboration with Prada and Oakley] Market news on Tuesday reported that Meta and its AI glasses partner EssilorLuxottica plan to launch new AI glasses products under the Prada and Oakley brands. Meta had already announced on Monday that it would unveil a new collaboration with Oakley this week, focusing on sports scenarios. [Intel Reportedly to Cut Up to 20% of Employees in Its Foundry Division] An internal memo disclosed by the media on Tuesday revealed that Intel plans to reduce its workforce in the foundry business unit by 15% to 20% starting from July. It remains unclear how many employees will be directly affected by this move. Regulatory filings indicate that as of the end of last year, Intel had a total of 108,900 employees.

On Tuesday (June 17), the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated in its latest monetary policy statement that it would maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% and planned to slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases in the next fiscal year. In late May, Japanese government bond yields surged to record highs, driven by weak demand from investors for long-term Japanese government bond auctions and high volatility in the global bond market. On May 21, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a historic high of 3.2%. At that time, traders noted that this not only reflected market concerns about the global economic outlook but also concerns about the impact of the BOJ's ongoing plan to reduce bond purchases. On Tuesday, the BOJ's Policy Board concluded a two-day meeting. During the meeting, policymakers unanimously voted to keep the short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and to reduce bond purchases at a slower pace starting next year . It is evident that the key focus of this meeting was to adjust the pace. This outcome was also in line with market expectations. Prior to the meeting, Ryutaro Kono, Japan's chief economist at BNP Paribas, pointed out, "The instability in the bond market is not conducive to the implementation of monetary policy. To prudently balance the pace of balance sheet reduction, the BOJ is likely to slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases starting from next spring." Slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction In March last year, the BOJ abolished its negative interest rate and yield curve control policies, and then decided in July of the same year to reduce the scale of bond purchases, which would continue until March 2026. Specifically, the BOJ will continue to reduce its monthly government bond purchase plan and decrease the scale of quarterly bond purchases by approximately 400 billion yen (approximately $2.8 billion) until March 2026. On Tuesday, the BOJ stated that it would not make any changes to the existing reduction plan . It is estimated that, as of the quarter ending June 2026, the BOJ's monthly bond purchases will amount to 4.1 trillion yen. However, according to the BOJ's plan for the next fiscal year, the bank indicated that it would slow down the reduction pace to 200 billion yen (approximately $1.4 billion) per quarter starting from April 2026 , with the goal of reaching a monthly purchase level of 2.1 trillion yen by March 2027. The BOJ explained that this move aims to "improve the functioning of the Japanese bond market in a manner that supports market stability." On Tuesday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference after the meeting, stating that the bank would appropriately reduce bond purchases in a predictable manner and would respond flexibly if yields rise significantly. Regarding the matter of interest rate hikes, Ueda noted that if the economic outlook aligns with expectations, the central bank will raise interest rates. Investment Bank Perspectives HSBC Global Research pointed out that a monthly bond purchase scale of 2 trillion yen represents a "natural" level, stating that this would be roughly equivalent to the amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) the Bank of Japan (BOJ) purchased monthly before introducing its ultra-loose monetary policy in April 2013. Benjamin Shatil, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo, said, "As the BOJ moves further away from the market and begins to end the liquidity expansion that has lasted for over a decade, the bank is walking a fine line in trying to contain volatility." Shatil added that the BOJ's gradual exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy not only has implications for Japan but also for the global bond market. "The market's focus is increasingly shifting from the BOJ's policy rate normalization path to the pace of its balance sheet reduction," he said. Krishna Bhimavarapu, an Asia-Pacific economist at State Street Global Advisors, believes that the BOJ will not make any changes to its existing tapering plan before the first quarter of next year, marking a small victory for the BOJ "as the market does not seem to need immediate help to cope with the recent surge in long-term JGB yields." Following the BOJ's latest statement at noon, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.55%, the yen strengthened 0.13% against the US dollar to 144.55, and the 10-year JGB yield climbed 3 basis points to 1.491%.

In a report last Friday, JPMorgan Chase presented a "worst-case scenario" for the crude oil market amid the Israel-Iran conflict: in this scenario, "oil price reactions would rise exponentially rather than linearly, and the impact on supply could exceed the reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day in Iran's crude oil exports."

Jon Faust, a former senior advisor to Fed Chairman Powell, recently stated that while it is still too early to determine how the Israel-Iran conflict will unfold, the situation in the Middle East represents a "significant uncertainty" for the US Fed and could potentially trigger a US economic recession . Jon Faust is a monetary economist with a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. He is currently a researcher at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University. He has served as an internal advisor to three Fed Chairmen: Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, and has worked at the US Fed for nearly 20 years. A sharp rise in oil prices could trigger an economic slowdown . In an interview with the media, Faust said, "If this conflict leads to a significant increase in oil prices and further impacts uncertainty and confidence, it could trigger an economic slowdown" . He pointed out, "Economic recessions typically occur when consumers and businesses are hit by some major shock. We may be seeing this unfold in the Middle East, and the likelihood of this scenario has slightly increased." Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase warned in a report last week that under extreme geopolitical circumstances, particularly those involving Iran, oil prices could nearly double, reaching levels of $120-130 per barrel. Key points of this week's interest rate meeting The US Fed will hold a meeting on June 17-18 to set interest rate policies. The market widely expects the central bank to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. Since December last year, the US Fed has kept the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Faust pointed out that the key point of this week's interest rate meeting is whether Powell will further clarify whether the future risk is more likely to be an outbreak of inflation or a weakening of the labour market . "This will provide some guidance for the policy direction this year," but so far, the US Fed has not shown a clear preference for either direction. Powell has already indicated that Trump's tariffs are highly likely to lead to an increase in US inflation or a slowdown in the labour market. In March this year, Fed officials expected two interest rate cuts this year. Fed observers are now focusing on whether the latest dot plot, to be released this week, will show policymakers lowering their forecasts for the number of interest rate cuts. Faust said he believes the so-called dot plot will not be very convincing. From the current perspective, the probabilities of the US Fed not cutting interest rates, cutting once, or cutting twice this year are equal . Not cutting interest rates is good news. US President Trump has recently increased pressure on Powell in recent days, urging him to cut interest rates promptly. In response, Faust said that while it's never good to be told by others that one's work is not up to par, these criticisms are "largely irrelevant" to the US Fed's policy path. Faust stated that although the US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, it did not open the door for the US Fed to accelerate its actions. He pointed out that while the data has alleviated some concerns about the "worst-case scenario" for inflation, it is still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. He also noted that if the US Fed does not cut interest rates this year, it would be good news for everyone except the president, as it would mean that the labor market remains robust and the US economy has not weakened to the point where an interest rate cut is necessary. He also said that there is still significant uncertainty about how tariffs will ultimately be implemented and their impact, the data may not support the US Fed taking action in September, and he predicts a 50% likelihood of an interest rate cut in December.