SMM, August 3: Metal market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.13%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.4%. SHFE lead fell 1.25%. SHFE zinc rose 1.02%. SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel fell 1.91%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.21%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.34%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.02%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.86%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 7.11%. Ferrous metals all declined. Iron ore fell 2.44%, rebar fell 0.86%, HRC fell 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.16%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.04%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.37%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper rose 0.17%, LME aluminum fell 0.3%, LME lead fell 0.16%, LME zinc rose 0.78%. LME tin fell 0.27%. LME nickel fell 1.42%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold rose 0.27%, COMEX silver rose 0.92%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.57%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.48%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 0.52%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.21%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight rate futures contract rose 2.94% to 1,801 points. As of 11:48 on August 3, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 100 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,815 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 105,695 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory ended a three-session decline... Macro Front China: [China's July RatingDog manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, marking the eighth consecutive month in expansion territory] China’s July RatingDog manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9, down 0.8 percentage points from June, extending its expansion streak to an eighth consecutive month and tying with the longest expansion run in five years. Overall, manufacturing expansion continued in July, but the pace slowed. New orders continued to grow, cost pressure further eased, and new export orders returned to expansion, releasing a positive signal. However, purchasing activity declined somewhat, and the inventory of input goods accumulated earlier by enterprises kept rising, which are risk points to monitor going forward. (RatingDog) [The CSRC and Hong Kong SFC Jointly Announce New Measures to Deepen Pragmatic Cooperation and Close Collaborative Development Between the Two Markets] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong jointly announced a series of new measures to further deepen pragmatic cooperation and close collaborative development between the two markets. Covering multiple areas including listing and financing, index cooperation, futures products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), internationalization of financial institutions, green finance, and professional qualification facilitation, the specific measures include: continuing to support eligible domestic enterprises to list and raise funds in Hong Kong; supporting index companies in both markets to strengthen cooperation and launch more indices based on Chinese assets, enhancing the international influence of Chinese indices and assets; deepening cooperation in futures markets and supporting Hong Kong in launching more RMB-denominated and settled futures products; supporting institutions in both markets to launch more ETF products based on the two markets and aligned with China’s modern industrial system, and implementing a fast-track registration mechanism for regular equity ETF products, among others. (Jin10 Data APP) [Hong Kong Exchange Officially Launches 5-Year RMB Government Bond Futures] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) today (August 3) officially launched the 5-year RMB government bond futures. As the only government bond futures contract product in the offshore market, it aims to meet the growing interest rate risk management and trading needs of overseas investors. The launch of the 5-year government bond futures is an important step in promoting Hong Kong as an offshore RMB hub and risk management center. (CCTV News) [The PBOC's Open Market Operations Resulted in a Net Withdrawal of 562.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 63 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations and 300 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations today. With 325.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos maturing today, the net withdrawal for the day was 562.5 billion yuan. 》 On August 3, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7898 per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 99.75. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting is 26.4%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike stands at 73.6%. For the October meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.9%, with a 62.1% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 17.9% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. According to the New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate decision meetings of the Federal Reserve, a move that could cause significant shockwaves and would mark the most significant change in the Fed's operations in recent years. Currently, the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh raised the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. According to the sources, at this week's meeting, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must adhere to regarding the minimum number of meetings required annually, as well as the timetable for such adjustments. It was said that Warsh asked officials to provide him with their views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Japan's Ministry of Finance said the intervention was aimed at addressing recent excessive, disorderly movements in the yen. It will not hesitate to conduct further foreign exchange intervention with the United States, and plans to use the Fed's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility in the future. JPMorgan said that the U.S. Treasury Department's liquidity resources available to support further coordinated currency intervention with Japan are limited, but its firepower could be significantly expanded if officials take more unconventional measures. Strategists including Junya Tanase wrote in a report that as of June, the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund held around €13 billion in euro-denominated assets and $25.5 billion in assets, which pales in comparison to Japan's intervention scale of roughly $35 billion to $60 billion between 2022 and 2026. JPMorgan noted that the Treasury could significantly boost its firepower by converting its holdings of International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) into dollars, and by swapping foreign currency assets into dollars. In that scenario, the Treasury could theoretically mobilize up to around $187 billion, and the participation of the Fed could effectively double the scale of any intervention. However, they wrote: "We do not think the Treasury has unlimited capacity to intervene, as the Exchange Stabilization Fund's resources are finite and new funds might require congressional appropriation." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland July CPI m/m, France July manufacturing PMI final, Germany July manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI final, UK July manufacturing PMI final, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US July ISM manufacturing PMI, US June construction spending m/m, and other data. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices on both exchanges fell sharply, with WTI down 5.52% and Brent down 4.9%. Oil prices tumbled sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, following Trump’s announcement that the US and Iran would resume negotiations on Monday, significantly raising market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wall Street CN) The decline in oil prices was driven by two major factors. First, the news of the US-Iran negotiations resuming directly boosted expectations for the restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Second, major OPEC+ members again slightly raised production quotas, further intensifying supply-side pressure. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Telegram on Sunday that negotiations between Iran and Oman are in their final stage, with both sides discussing new shipping routes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei added in an interview with Iran’s state television that the relevant negotiations do not concern the opening or closing of the strait. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 29 News: Metals market, as of midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.27%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.88%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc declined 0.28%. SHFE tin advanced 0.44%. SHFE nickel dropped 0.3%. Additionally, cast aluminum the most-traded contract futures rose 0.61%, alumina the most-traded contract gained 0.19%. Lithium carbonate the most-traded contract advanced 1.91%. Silicon metal the most-traded contract fell 0.73%. Polysilicon the most-traded contract futures continued the decline from the previous trading day to fall further 1.16%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 0.61%, rebar edged down, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%. Stainless steel declined 0.17%. In coking coal and coke: coking coal the most-traded contract fell 0.12%, coke the most-traded contract gained 0.85%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper fell 0.13%, LME aluminum gained 0.19%. LME lead rose 0.24%. LME zinc edged up, LME tin advanced 1.12%. LME nickel increased 0.65%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.34%, COMEX silver rose 0.31%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 0.8%, SHFE silver the most-traded contract dropped 0.83%. Additionally, as of midday close, platinum the most-traded contract futures fell 0.78%, palladium the most-traded contract futures declined 0.94%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container freight futures contract rose 2.63%, to 2,870 points. As of 11:38 on July 29, some futures midday market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices concentrated at 24,685-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream traded at 24,815-24,910 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream traded at 24,615-24,720 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the market was at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price for cargoes with invoices dated next month, and no quotes were available against the contract…… Macro Front Domestic: [China's Total Social Logistics Value in H1 Exceeds 180 Trillion Yuan] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released today (29th) the logistics operation data for H1 this year. In H1, the scale of logistics demand continued to expand, with prominent features of structural optimization and momentum shift. In H1 this year, China's total social logistics value reached 181.1 trillion yuan, up 5.1% YoY, 0.4 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period. The supporting and leading role of logistics demand in national economic growth continues to strengthen. On a quarterly basis, growth was 6.2% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2, showing an overall trend of stable growth with incremental advances.（CCTV News) [CO2 emissions per unit of GDP to drop by 17% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period] The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with 18 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), jointly released the National Climate Change 15th Five-Year Plan. According to the Plan, by 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and CO2 emissions per unit of product in industries covered by the national carbon emissions trading market will drop by around 3% compared with 2025. A nationwide voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is transparent and credible, with unified methodologies, broad participation, and aligned with international practices will be established. A product carbon footprint management system will be basically in place. Monitoring and control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be strengthened, forming a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction capacity of 30 million tonnes. Climate change adaptation work systems will become more complete, phased progress will be made in building a climate-resilient society, and awareness and capacity to address climate change will continue to strengthen. China’s influence, guiding power, shaping power, and moral appeal in global climate governance will be significantly enhanced. (from Wall Street News APP) The PBOC today conducted 206.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. The PBOC also conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repo operations. US Dollar: As of 11:38 am, the US dollar index fell 0.11 to 101.3. Market attention returned to the Strait of Hormuz, as the risk of energy supply disruptions complicated the inflation outlook, coinciding with the Fed’s interest rate decision due this Wednesday, further increasing uncertainty. Markets currently price in about a 70% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this Wednesday, with the current target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. JPMorgan analysts believe the probability of a rate hike "may be lower than the roughly 30% currently priced in by markets," citing that "while inflation is elevated, there is no risk of it surging further." The bank assigns a 50% probability to a "hawkish hold," believing the Fed will remain vigilant while noting the downward signal on inflation from recent energy price movements. (from Wall Street News APP) BNP Paribas Markets 360 team expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, "although the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be completely ruled out." The bank’s base case is for one rate hike in December, but "there is a significant risk that policymakers will strengthen the inflation language in the FOMC statement, which would be tantamount to hinting that a September rate hike is on the table." The wording on price stability will be the focal point of discussions at this meeting, while the statement will reflect a willingness to act if necessary. However, even if such wording is absent from the statement, a September rate hike cannot be ruled out; conversely, if such wording is included, it does not necessarily guarantee a rate hike in September. At the press conference, Warsh is expected to broadly follow the June playbook: brief opening remarks, concise answers, and very limited forward guidance. Assuming the statement sees relatively small changes from June, we believe the opening statement will closely track Warsh's congressional testimony, and his commentary on inflation and labor data, the economic outlook, and his commitment to restoring price stability will also remain consistent with that testimony. (Jin10 Data APP) Gary Pzegeo, Chief Investment Officer of Private Wealth US at CIBC, noted that Warsh's hawkish remarks on price stability, combined with a batch of soft data (CPI and nonfarm payrolls), may be enough for the US Fed to stand pat. This aligns with market sentiment. "Interest rate futures are pointing to a hold at the July meeting," Pzegeo said, "but expectations for a September rate hike have been rising. In the current geopolitical backdrop, September is a long way off, and the US Fed will have more data to process between now and September 16." (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 30.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 23.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 20.2%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include Australia's June unadjusted monthly CPI, Switzerland's July ZEW investor sentiment index, and UK June mortgage approvals from the Bank of England. Additionally, SK Hynix will report its Q2 earnings. Crude Oil Front: As of 11:38 AM, oil prices on both benchmarks surged sharply, with WTI up 3.92% and Brent up 3.55%. Renewed tensions in the Middle East fueled a sharp rebound in oil prices. The immediate trigger for this oil price rebound was a statement issued by US Central Command. Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, said, "We remain cautious on any potential agreement that does not specifically address the Strait of Hormuz issue, as disagreements over control of the waterway have previously led to aggressive actions by Iran and caused earlier memoranda of understanding to fall apart prematurely." (from Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

July 24, 2026 On Wednesday, 29 July, at 2:00 p.m. ET, the US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision. Futures markets see almost no chance of a change to the target range. For the gold market , the real event comes thirty minutes later – when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh steps up to the microphone. The starting point: four holds in a row The target range for the fed funds rate has stood at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since December 2025. The FOMC has now held steady at four consecutive meetings – most recently on 17 June, unanimously and for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh. What stood out at the June meeting was not the decision but the accompanying dot plot. For the first time since the easing cycle began, the median projection pointed toward a hike rather than a cut: nine of the eighteen participants saw at least one increase before year-end, eight saw no change, and only one projected a cut. Warsh submitted no dot of his own – a deliberate signal that the new Chair does not intend to be pinned to a path. At the same time, the Fed raised its 2026 inflation projection significantly and lowered its growth forecast. For gold, that was unwelcome news. The metal peaked at a record of roughly $5,600 an ounce in January and has since given back somewhere between a quarter and nearly thirty percent. It is currently trading around the $4,100 mark; on Wednesday of this week it reached roughly $4,130 intraday, a two-week high. Real yields are the lever – not the headline Gold does not respond to headline inflation. It responds to real yields, meaning what Treasuries pay after subtracting expected inflation. When real yields rise, so does the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no income. That mechanism explains gold's weakness this year: it was not inflation that hurt the metal, but the expectation that the Fed would answer that inflation with higher rates. This is precisely why the 28–29 July meeting is, for gold, a communications event above all. There is no updated Summary of Economic Projections and no new dot plot this time – the next projection meeting is 15–16 September. What remains is the statement and the press conference. And Warsh has made clear in the past that he wants less forward guidance and more data dependence. For investors, that means less advance signalling, more room for interpretation, and potentially higher volatility around the announcement. The data: disinflation on shaky ground Recent inflation prints have taken the sharpest edge off market expectations. After US consumer prices hit 4.2 percent in May, a three-year high, the annual rate fell to 3.5 percent in June and the core rate eased from 2.9 to 2.6 percent. Both came in below expectations. The catch: the decline was almost entirely energy-driven. Following the Middle East ceasefire in mid-June, oil and gasoline prices dropped sharply, with the energy index falling 5.7 percent month-over-month. That is not structural relief – it is a base effect with an expiry date. Energy quotes were already firming again in early July, and the geopolitical situation around Iran remains fragile, with reports of a possible temporary truce alternating with fresh escalation headlines. The labour market, meanwhile, is cooling. June nonfarm payrolls came in at roughly 57,000, well short of the roughly 110,000 expected, and the two prior months were revised down by a combined 74,000. The Fed therefore faces the classic dilemma: tighten too late and inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored; tighten too early and an already softening labour market may tip over. What the market is pricing Following the June inflation report, the implied probability of no change at the end of July has risen above 85 percent. A hike on 29 July would be a genuine surprise – and for exactly that reason it would land hard on gold. September is the more interesting question. Implied hike probabilities there have swung between roughly 50 and just under 70 percent depending on the trading day. That is the real variable: any phrasing in Warsh's press conference that opens or closes the door to September will translate straight into real yields, and from there into the gold price. Four scenarios for 29 July Scenario Probability Expected gold reaction Hawkish hold – rates unchanged, statement stresses inflation risks, September explicitly live high Pressure toward $4,000, support level tested Neutral hold – rates unchanged, emphasis on data dependence without directional signal high Sideways to slightly firmer, volatility around the press conference Dovish hold – rates unchanged, focus on the soft labour market and falling inflation medium Recovery toward $4,300 to $4,400 possible Rate hike – 25 basis point increase low Sharp setback, a move toward $3,900 conceivable For context: the World Gold Council's valuation framework currently puts fair value at around $4,100 an ounce, with a band of roughly five percent – and that calculation already assumes a hike by October. If that move fails to materialise, there is upside relative to the model value. The other side of the scale: structural demand Amid the rate-driven weakness, it is easy to overlook that physical demand has held up. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 – the strongest quarter in more than a year and above the five-year average. The People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 19 consecutive months. These buyers do not act on FedWatch probabilities but on reserve diversification, and that demand floor will be entirely unaffected by what happens on 29 July. ETF flows point the other way, with net outflows in recent months. Put simply: the Western financial investor is currently the seller, the central bank the buyer. On the forecast side, the major houses remain constructive – JP Morgan sees around $4,500 in the fourth quarter, while Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by year-end. What this means for gold equities and junior explorers For our readers, the second derivative matters more than the first. Producers are still working with historically wide margins at $4,100 gold; the sector's operating cash flow position remains solid despite the price decline. For explorers and developers, the picture is different. They have no revenues, only capital requirements. The rate path reaches them through two channels: the discounting of future cash flows in NPV models, and the financing window. A hawkish signal on 29 July makes risk capital more expensive and narrows the window for private placements; a neutral or dovish tone widens it. This is why junior names typically react to Fed dates with a higher beta than the metal itself – to the downside as well as the upside. Anyone invested in the junior space should therefore treat 29 July less as a forecasting event and more as a volatility event. The structural case – a thin pipeline of development-ready ounces, resilient central bank demand, and reviving M&A appetite among producers – does not hinge on any single meeting. Conclusion The rate decision itself is likely to be a non-event. What counts is how Kevin Warsh characterises the balance of risks between sticky inflation and a weakening labour market, and whether he leaves the door to September open or pulls it shut. After that, attention turns to the next inflation report on 12 August and the projection meeting on 15–16 September. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/the-upcoming-fed-decision-why-this-meeting-matters-more-to-gold-than-the-rate-call-itself

JPMorgan increased its stake in Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK) from 5.72% to 6.04% after acquiring 12.69 million H-shares on July 2. The transaction, valued at approximately HKD 93.99 million (USD 11.9 million), lifted the bank's total holding to about 239 million shares, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing.

04 July 2026, 10:49 UTC JPMorgan turned cautious on gold and cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500. The revised target drops from around $6,000, with gold seen averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026. JPMorgan kept its long-term bullish view, citing central bank buying and strong physical demand. JPMorgan just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000. The recalibration follows weaker demand from key buying sectors. This move signals fresh caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its longer-term bullish thesis fully intact. JPMorgan Slashed Its Gold Forecast 25% A price forecast is an analyst’s projection of where an asset may trade over a defined future period. JPMorgan now projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in Q4. The cut is significant in scale. The bank previously targeted roughly $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. As a result, the new $4,500 target represents a roughly 25% reduction from prior expectations for the same period. The recalibration stems from softer demand. Purchasing power has weakened among gold’s major demand centers. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, capping the near-term price ceiling. The bank described the situation as “range-bound”. As a result, traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold. Other institutions remain more bullish. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. Furthermore, UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also eyes $5,200 in H2 2026, but warns that gold needs stronger ETF inflows first. The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data. Why JPMorgan’s Long-Term Bullish View Holds Despite the cut, JPMorgan’s medium- to long-term view remains firmly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could drive gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand well beyond the current short-term consolidation phase across global markets. First, central banks worldwide continue accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to keep strengthening over the coming months. Both trends provide a durable floor under prices across the entire outlook. Second, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, that pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to retain its role as both a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The JPMorgan forecast also carries implications for crypto markets. Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term. However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a temporary pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend. Source： https://beincrypto.com/jpmorgan-changes-gold-price-outlook-q4-2026/

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading: