According to LME inventory data on June 16, zinc inventory increased by 17,400 mt or 16.24% to 124,550 mt, while LME zinc off-warrant stocks fell by 18,549 mt to 20,916 mt. Based on this, the LME zinc price once quickly dropped to $3,539/mt. According to SMM, this inventory increase was mostly due to traders converting off-warrant stocks into warrants, and the overall impact was relatively limited.

While upstream MHP payables stayed high, auxiliary material prices such as sulphur and sulphuric acid continued to climb, and downstream ternary production schedules remained at high levels, the performance of battery-grade nickel sulphate prices was not optimistic. SMM believes this was driven by multiple factors, including weakening cost support, front-loaded downstream stockpiling, increased import supplementation, and higher volumes of nickel sulphate converted from refined nickel.

According to the SMM survey, on June 12, the total inventory at 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 110.97 million mt, up 610,000 mt WoW. Coarse fines and concentrates showed inventory buildup, while lump and pellets experienced slight destocking.

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated downward today, closing at 3,358, down 0.33% MoM. Spot sheets & plates fell 10-20 yuan/mt MoM, while some markets held steady. Supply side, hot rolling maintenance impact eased this week, weekly production rose 10,500 mt MoM, and supply pressure remains on a short-term uptrend. Demand side, the late-session decline weighed on market sentiment, with end-users buying at low prices and speculative demand weakening. Cost side, the spot market for coking coal and coke remained in a tight supply-demand balance. The sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, and futures prices are currently in the process of repairing losses. There are market talks of a seventh round of increases on the 12th, and cost support remains in place. In summary, based on HRC social inventory data, east China and south China markets saw MoM inventory buildup, while northeast, north China, and central China markets saw MoM destocking. No obvious supply-demand imbalance has emerged yet. However, as the off-season deepens, imbalances will continue to build. The market is expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Keep monitoring disturbances from the raw material side.

According to SMM statistics, as of June 11, the aluminum ingot inventory in Guangdong was 341,000 mt; in Wuxi, 527,500 mt; in Gongyi, 241,000 mt. The total inventory across the three regions reached 1.1095 million mt, down 19,500 mt from the previous period.

Today, HRC’s the most-traded contract fluctuated downward, closing at 3,380 yuan/mt, up 0.6% from the previous trading day. Spot sheets & plates prices rose 10-20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of supply, this week, the impact from maintenance on hot rolling totaled 74,100 mt, down 156,400 mt WoW. Next week’s impact from maintenance on hot rolling is expected at 23,100 mt, down 51,000 mt WoW. Supply pressure sustained its uptrend this month. Demand side, futures rebounded near the close, improving market trading from the previous trading day. Trading was mostly at low prices, with some buyers taking advantage of the spot-futures price spread to purchase on dips. Cost side, near the close today, market rumors suggested that a major mine signaled a halt on certifying blended super special fines, driving iron ore futures to surge. However, subsequent rumors refuted this, causing futures to fluctuate sharply. For coking coal and coke, the spot market saw tight supply-demand dynamics, and they are expected to recover some losses in the short term. Overall, according to the regional HRC inventory data released today, except for South China, most regions maintained destocking. The supply-demand imbalance remains not significant, and they are expected to continue their sideways trend in the short term, with attention on disruptions in the raw material supply.